The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 10001Newfoundland and Labrador

Avalon

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Avalon
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Avalon is a federal riding in Newfoundland and Labrador. Paul Connors (Liberal) has represented Avalon since the 2025 election. Paul Connors (Liberal) held Avalon for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 10,610 votes (22.6 points), with 58.6% of the vote. Steve Kent (Conservative) was second with 36.0%, on a turnout of 66.9% of 70,859 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Avalon on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Avalon

Paul Connors's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Paul Connors

Member of Parliament for Avalon

Liberal

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Agriculture and Agri-Food committee
Fisheries and Oceans committee

11 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Spectrum Policy Framework for Canada Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Avalon, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 47,030 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Paul Connors	Liberal	27,563	58.6%
Steve Kent	Conservative	16,953	36.0%
Judy Vanta	New Democratic	2,284	4.9%
Other (1)		230	0.5%

Paul Connors (Liberal) won Avalon on April 28, 2025 with 27,563 votes, 58.6% of the 47,030 valid votes. Steve Kent (Conservative) was second with 16,953 (36.0%), 10,610 votes and 22.6 points behind.

Of the 47,030 valid votes, Paul Connors (Liberal) took 58.6%, Steve Kent (Conservative) 36.0% and Judy Vanta (New Democratic) 4.9%; one other candidate took 0.5%. Turnout was 66.9% of 70,859 electors: 47,419 ballots cast, 47,030 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 8.1 (50.5% to 58.6%), the Conservatives up 3.2 (32.8% to 36.0%) and the New Democrats down 9.3 (14.2% to 4.9%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Liberal

The party first in Avalon at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal51.1%by 18.2 points over the Conservatives
2006changed handsConservative49.6%by 12.5 points over the Liberals
2008changed handsLiberal40.2%by 10.5 points over the New Democrats
2011†Liberal35.9%by 1.4 points over the Conservatives
2015Liberal56.5%by 37.9 points over the New Democrats
2019Liberal47.2%by 18.3 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal50.5%by 17.7 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal58.6%by 22.6 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	51.1%	Conservative	18.2	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	49.6%	Liberal	12.5	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	40.2%	New Democratic	10.5	carried, our estimate
2011†	Liberal	35.9%	Conservative	1.4	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	56.5%	New Democratic	37.9	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	47.2%	Conservative	18.3	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	50.5%	Conservative	17.7	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	58.6%	Conservative	22.6	official result

The Liberals were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Conservatives were first in 2006. In 2025 the Liberals took 58.6% of the vote here, 13.1 points above their average of 45.5% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (51.1%), 2008 (40.2%), 2011 (35.9%), 2015 (56.5%), 2019 (47.2%), 2021 (50.5%) and 2025 (58.6%) and the Conservatives in 2006 (49.6%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2011 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Ken McDonald, by 5,870 votes (15.8 pts)
2019 Liberal · Kenneth McDonald, by 6,267 votes (15.2 pts)
2015 Liberal · Ken McDonald, by 16,027 votes (38.1 pts)

In the old Avalon on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Avalon lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Avalon is

Population: 81,7352021 census
Area: 8,020km²
Density: 10people per km²
Electors: 70,859on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

4th-least French mother tongue
0.2% have French as a mother tongue, 4th lowest of 343 (Share with French as a mother tongue, 2021 census)
7th-smallest immigrant share
1.3% are immigrants, 7th lowest of 343 (Share who are immigrants, 2021 census)
2nd-highest turnout in Newfoundland and Labrador
66.9% of 70,859 electors voted · 2nd of 7 in Newfoundland and Labrador · 233rd of 343 in Canada

Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.2% — about 13 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest4th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 1.3% — about 8 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest7th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 84.3% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest18th highest of 343
Median age is 47.6 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest41st highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 17.8% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest67th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $79,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest136th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 80% of the 2025 electors in today's Avalon lived in the old Avalon; by area, 6% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

80.2%Avalon 93.8% of the area · 77% of it kept

19.0%St. John's South—Mount Pearl 5.7% of the area · 73% of it kept

0.8%Bonavista—Burin—Trinity 0.3% of the area · 0.1% of it kept

0.0%St. John's East 0.2% of the area · 2% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Paul Connors	Liberal	27,563	58.6%	50.5%	+8.1
Steve Kent	Conservative	16,953	36.0%	32.8%	+3.2
Judy Vanta	New Democratic	2,284	4.9%	14.2%	−9.3

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Alexander Tilley

Other

230

0.5%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,284 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 10,610-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

27 of 172

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (144) · ■ won by another party (27) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 5,306 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 11.3% of the 47,030 valid votes, 11.3 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0010,612

Liberal27,563

Conservative16,953

Still Liberal by 10,610 votes. Actual margin: 10,610.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 60.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 54.3%, the Conservatives 39.5% and the New Democrats 5.6%; in advance and special ballots, 65.2%, 30.8% and 3.7%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Avalon, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	54.3%	65.2%	+10.9
Conservative	39.5%	30.8%	−8.7
New Democratic	5.6%	3.7%	−1.9

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Avalon and its 3 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Avalon — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/avalon/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.