The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Avalon
Federal riding · NL · No. 10001 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Paul Connors Liberal
- 2025 result
- Liberal hold by 10,610 votes
- Turnout
- 66.9% of 70,859 electors
- Population
- 81,735 2021 census
- Area
- 8,020 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Least French mother tongue0.2% have French as a mother tongue, 4th lowest of 343 (Share with French as a mother tongue, 2021 census)
- Smallest immigrant share1.3% are immigrants, 7th lowest of 343 (Share who are immigrants, 2021 census)
- Highest turnout in Newfoundland and Labrador66.9% of 70,859 electors voted · 2nd of 7 in Newfoundland and Labrador · 233rd of 343 in Canada
- Widest margin in Newfoundland and LabradorWon by 22.6 points (10,610 votes) · 3rd of 7 in Newfoundland and Labrador · 121st of 343 in Canada
- Smallest by area in Newfoundland and Labrador8,020 km² · 3rd of 7 in Newfoundland and Labrador · 265th of 343 in Canada
In brief
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Paul Connors
- Member: Agriculture and Agri-Food
- Member: Fisheries and Oceans
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 6% of today's Avalon came from ridings other than the old Avalon.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
93.8%Avalon 77% of it kept
5.7%St. John's South—Mount Pearl 73% of it kept
0.3%Bonavista—Burin—Trinity 0% of it kept
0.2%St. John's East 2% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Liberal hold
Elected
Paul Connors
Liberal
27,563
58.6% of valid votes
Margin
10,610
votes · +22.6 pts
Runner-up
Steve Kent
Conservative
16,953
36.0% of valid votes
Liberal 58.6% · Conservative 36.0% · New Democratic 4.9%
Turnout66.9% of 70,859 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Connors | Liberal | 27,563 | 58.6% | 50.5% | +8.1 |
| Steve Kent | Conservative | 16,953 | 36.0% | 32.8% | +3.2 |
| Judy Vanta | New Democratic | 2,284 | 4.9% | 14.2% | −9.3 |
1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote
| Alexander Tilley | Other | 230 | 0.5% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
11.3 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
2,284 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 10,610-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
27 of 172
1 poll ended in an exact tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 5,306 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 11.3% of the 47,030 valid votes, 11.3 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Liberal27,563
Conservative16,953
Still Liberal by 10,610 votes. Actual margin: 10,610.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 60.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Liberal54.3%65.2%+10.9
Conservative39.5%30.8%−8.7
New Democratic5.6%3.7%−1.9
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $79,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest136th lowest of 343
- Median age is 47.6 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest41st highest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 17.8% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest67th lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 1.3% — about 8 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest7th lowest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 84.3% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest18th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.2% — about 13 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest4th lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
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The card
No. 10001NL · 2025
Avalon
Paul Connors
- Result
- Liberal hold by 10,610
- Turnout
- 66.9%
- Population
- 81,735
- Area
- 8,020 km²
Least French mother tongueSmallest immigrant shareHighest turnout in Newfoundland and LabradorWidest margin in Newfoundland and LabradorSmallest by area in Newfoundland and Labrador
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.