The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 24028Quebec

Hull—Aylmer

Hull—Aylmer is a federal riding in Quebec. Greg Fergus (Liberal, first elected to the House in 2015) represents Hull—Aylmer. Greg Fergus (Liberal) held Hull—Aylmer for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 23,251 votes (45.2 points), with 62.1% of the vote. Jill Declare (Conservative) was second with 16.9%, on a turnout of 69.4% of 74,942 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Hull—Aylmer on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Hull—Aylmer

Greg Fergus's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Greg Fergus

Member of Parliament for Hull—Aylmer

Liberal

MP since 2015-10-19 · 4 terms

Medical Assistance in Dying committee

84 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Military Justice System Modernization Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Hull—Aylmer, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 51,487 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Greg Fergus	Liberal	31,978	62.1%
Jill Declare	Conservative	8,727	16.9%
Alice Grondin	Bloc Québécois	6,248	12.1%
Pascale Matecki	New Democratic	2,855	5.5%
Frédéric Morin-Paquette	Green	1,130	2.2%
Others (2)		549	1.1%

Greg Fergus (Liberal) won Hull—Aylmer on April 28, 2025 with 31,978 votes, 62.1% of the 51,487 valid votes. Jill Declare (Conservative) was second with 8,727 (16.9%), 23,251 votes and 45.2 points behind.

Of the 51,487 valid votes, Greg Fergus (Liberal) took 62.1%, Jill Declare (Conservative) 16.9%, Alice Grondin (Bloc Québécois) 12.1%, Pascale Matecki (New Democratic) 5.5% and Frédéric Morin-Paquette (Green) 2.2%; the 2 other candidates took 1.1% together. Turnout was 69.4% of 74,942 electors: 52,002 ballots cast, 51,487 of them valid, for 7 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 10.3 (51.8% to 62.1%), the Conservatives up 6.3 (10.6% to 16.9%), the Bloc Québécois down 3.8 (15.9% to 12.1%), the New Democrats down 7.1 (12.6% to 5.5%) and the Greens down 0.6 (2.8% to 2.2%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Liberal

The party first in Hull—Aylmer at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal41.9%by 9.4 points over the Bloc Québécois
2006Liberal32.7%by 3.3 points over the Bloc Québécois
2008Liberal37.5%by 15.4 points over the Bloc Québécois
2011changed handsNew Democratic59.2%by 38.9 points over the Liberals
2015changed handsLiberal51.4%by 19.9 points over the New Democrats
2019Liberal54.1%by 39.5 points over the Bloc Québécois
2021Liberal51.8%by 35.9 points over the Bloc Québécois
2025Liberal62.1%by 45.2 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	41.9%	Bloc Québécois	9.4	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	32.7%	Bloc Québécois	3.3	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	37.5%	Bloc Québécois	15.4	carried, our estimate
2011	New Democratic	59.2%	Liberal	38.9	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	51.4%	New Democratic	19.9	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	54.1%	Bloc Québécois	39.5	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	51.8%	Bloc Québécois	35.9	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	62.1%	Conservative	45.2	official result

The Liberals were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the NDP were first in 2011. In 2025 the Liberals took 62.1% of the vote here, 20.7 points above their average of 41.4% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (41.9%), 2006 (32.7%), 2008 (37.5%), 2015 (51.4%), 2019 (54.1%), 2021 (51.8%) and 2025 (62.1%) and the NDP in 2011 (59.2%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Greg Fergus, by 18,569 votes (36.3 pts)
2019 Liberal · Greg Fergus, by 21,721 votes (39.5 pts)
2015 Liberal · Greg Fergus, by 11,006 votes (19.9 pts)

In the old Hull—Aylmer on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Hull—Aylmer lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Hull—Aylmer is

Population: 105,5602021 census
Area: 78km²
Density: 1,348people per km²
Electors: 74,942on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

Won every election-day poll
All 176 election-day polls went to the winner · one of 15 of 343
Widest margin in Quebec
Won by 45.2 points (23,251 votes) · 1st of 78 in Quebec · 26th of 343 in Canada

Share of households that own their home is 51.6% — about 72 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest52nd lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 60.5% — about 37.8 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest60th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 43.5% — about 1.5 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest74th highest of 343
Median total household income is $74,500 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest92nd lowest of 343
Median age is 40.8 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest141st lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 19.4% — a little higher than the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest160th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 100% of the 2025 electors in today's Hull—Aylmer lived in the old Hull—Aylmer; by area, 1% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Hull—Aylmer 99.1% of the area · 97% of it kept

0.0%Gatineau 0.5% of the area · 0.3% of it kept

0.0%Pontiac 0.4% of the area · under 0.1% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Greg Fergus	Liberal	31,978	62.1%	51.8%	+10.3
Jill Declare	Conservative	8,727	16.9%	10.6%	+6.3
Alice Grondin	Bloc Québécois	6,248	12.1%	15.9%	−3.8
Pascale Matecki	New Democratic	2,855	5.5%	12.6%	−7.1
Frédéric Morin-Paquette	Green	1,130	2.2%	2.8%	−0.6

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Jean-Jacques Desgranges	People's	341	0.7%
Alexandre Deschênes	Other	208	0.4%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

6,248 votes

Bloc Québécois took fewer than the 23,251-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

0 of 176

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (176) · ■ won by another party (0).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 11,626 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 22.6% of the 51,487 valid votes, 22.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0023,252

Liberal31,978

Conservative8,727

Still Liberal by 23,251 votes. Actual margin: 23,251.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 52.0% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 57.6%, the Conservatives 20.0%, the Bloc Québécois 12.4%, the New Democrats 6.1% and the Greens 2.7%; in advance and special ballots, 67.0%, 13.7%, 11.9%, 4.9% and 1.7%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Hull—Aylmer, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	57.6%	67.0%	+9.4
Conservative	20.0%	13.7%	−6.3
Bloc Québécois	12.4%	11.9%	−0.5
New Democratic	6.1%	4.9%	−1.2
Green	2.7%	1.7%	−1.0

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Hull—Aylmer and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Hull—Aylmer — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/hull-aylmer/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.