The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Hull—Aylmer
Federal riding · QC · No. 24028 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Greg Fergus Liberal
- 2025 result
- Liberal hold by 23,251 votes
- Turnout
- 69.4% of 74,942 electors
- Population
- 105,560 2021 census
- Area
- 78 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Won every election-day pollAll 176 election-day polls went to the winner · one of 15 of 343
- Widest margin in QuebecWon by 45.2 points (23,251 votes) · 1st of 78 in Quebec · 26th of 343 in Canada
- Length of the ballot7 candidates stood · 24th of 343 in Canada
In brief
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Greg Fergus
- Member of the
- Member: Medical Assistance in Dying
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 1% of today's Hull—Aylmer came from ridings other than the old Hull—Aylmer.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
99.1%Hull—Aylmer 97% of it kept
0.5%Gatineau 0% of it kept
0.4%Pontiac 0% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Liberal hold
Elected
Greg Fergus
Liberal
31,978
62.1% of valid votes
Margin
23,251
votes · +45.2 pts
Runner-up
Jill Declare
Conservative
8,727
16.9% of valid votes
Liberal 62.1% · Conservative 16.9% · Bloc Québécois 12.1% · New Democratic 5.5% · Green 2.2%
Turnout69.4% of 74,942 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Fergus | Liberal | 31,978 | 62.1% | 51.8% | +10.3 |
| Jill Declare | Conservative | 8,727 | 16.9% | 10.6% | +6.3 |
| Alice Grondin | Bloc Québécois | 6,248 | 12.1% | 15.9% | −3.8 |
| Pascale Matecki | New Democratic | 2,855 | 5.5% | 12.6% | −7.1 |
| Frédéric Morin-Paquette | Green | 1,130 | 2.2% | 2.8% | −0.6 |
2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
| Jean-Jacques Desgranges | People's | 341 | 0.7% |
| Alexandre Deschênes | Other | 208 | 0.4% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
22.6 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
6,248 votes
Bloc Québécois took fewer than the 23,251-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
0 of 176
No poll ended in a tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 11,626 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 22.6% of the 51,487 valid votes, 22.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Liberal31,978
Conservative8,727
Still Liberal by 23,251 votes. Actual margin: 23,251.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 52.0% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Liberal57.6%67.0%+9.4
Conservative20.0%13.7%−6.3
Bloc Québécois12.4%11.9%−0.5
New Democratic6.1%4.9%−1.2
Green2.7%1.7%−1.0
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $74,500 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest92nd lowest of 343
- Median age is 40.8 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest141st lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 43.5% — about 1.5 times the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest74th highest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 19.4% — a little higher than the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest160th highest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 51.6% — about 72 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest52nd lowest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 60.5% — about 37.8 times the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest60th highest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
The card
No. 24028QC · 2025
Hull—Aylmer
Greg Fergus
- Result
- Liberal hold by 23,251
- Turnout
- 69.4%
- Population
- 105,560
- Area
- 78 km²
Won every election-day pollWidest margin in QuebecLength of the ballot
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
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