The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 24037Quebec

Laurier—Sainte-Marie

Laurier—Sainte-Marie is a federal riding in Quebec. The seat is vacant as of 2026-11-01. Steven Guilbeault (Liberal) held Laurier—Sainte-Marie for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 17,430 votes (33.3 points), with 52.1% of the vote. Nimâ Machouf (NDP) was second with 18.8%, on a turnout of 64.0% of 82,797 electors.

Fig. 1 — Laurier—Sainte-Marie on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Laurier—Sainte-Marie

Vacant

No Member of Parliament for Laurier—Sainte-Marie as of 2026-11-01, by the House of Commons list.

Steven Guilbeault (Liberal) won the seat in 2025.

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Laurier—Sainte-Marie, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 52,401 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Steven Guilbeault	Liberal	27,286	52.1%
Nimâ Machouf	New Democratic	9,856	18.8%
Emmanuel Lapierre	Bloc Québécois	8,079	15.4%
Mathieu Fournier	Conservative	4,796	9.2%
Dylan Perceval-Maxwell	Green	1,452	2.8%
Others (6)		932	1.8%

Steven Guilbeault (Liberal) won Laurier—Sainte-Marie on April 28, 2025 with 27,286 votes, 52.1% of the 52,401 valid votes. Nimâ Machouf (New Democratic) was second with 9,856 (18.8%), 17,430 votes and 33.3 points behind.

Of the 52,401 valid votes, Steven Guilbeault (Liberal) took 52.1%, Nimâ Machouf (New Democratic) 18.8%, Emmanuel Lapierre (Bloc Québécois) 15.4%, Mathieu Fournier (Conservative) 9.2% and Dylan Perceval-Maxwell (Green) 2.8%; the 6 other candidates took 1.8% together. Turnout was 64.0% of 82,797 electors: 53,003 ballots cast, 52,401 of them valid, for 11 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 13.1 (39.0% to 52.1%), the New Democrats down 11.3 (30.1% to 18.8%), the Bloc Québécois down 4.5 (19.9% to 15.4%), the Conservatives up 4.8 (4.4% to 9.2%) and the Greens up 0.6 (2.2% to 2.8%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Laurier—Sainte-Marie at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Bloc Québécois53.7%by 29.7 points over the Liberals
2006Bloc Québécois48.8%by 31.1 points over the Liberals
2008Bloc Québécois43.9%by 21.4 points over the Liberals
2011changed handsNew Democratic45.5%by 14.5 points over the Bloc Québécois
2015New Democratic36.6%by 9.7 points over the Liberals
2019changed handsLiberal43.2%by 19.0 points over the New Democrats
2021Liberal39.0%by 9.0 points over the New Democrats
2025Liberal52.1%by 33.3 points over the New Democrats

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Bloc Québécois	53.7%	Liberal	29.7	carried, our estimate
2006	Bloc Québécois	48.8%	Liberal	31.1	carried, our estimate
2008	Bloc Québécois	43.9%	Liberal	21.4	carried, our estimate
2011	New Democratic	45.5%	Bloc Québécois	14.5	carried, our estimate
2015	New Democratic	36.6%	Liberal	9.7	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	43.2%	New Democratic	19.0	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	39.0%	New Democratic	9.0	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	52.1%	New Democratic	33.3	official result

The Bloc Québécois were first at three of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Liberals at three and the NDP at two; it changed hands twice. In 2025 the Liberals took 52.1% of the vote here, 25.4 points above their average of 26.7% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Bloc Québécois were first here in 2004 (53.7%), 2006 (48.8%) and 2008 (43.9%), the NDP in 2011 (45.5%) and 2015 (36.6%) and the Liberals in 2019 (43.2%), 2021 (39.0%) and 2025 (52.1%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Steven Guilbeault, by 2,281 votes (5.1 pts)
2019 Liberal · Steven Guilbeault, by 8,853 votes (16.6 pts)
2015 New Democratic · Hélène Laverdière, by 5,230 votes (9.6 pts)

In the old Laurier—Sainte-Marie on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Laurier—Sainte-Marie lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Laurier—Sainte-Marie is

Population: 115,7002021 census
Area: 21km²
Density: 5,563people per km²
Electors: 82,797on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

2nd-most candidates on the ballot in Canada
11 candidates stood · 2nd of 343
3rd-fewest home owners
28.1% of households own their home, 3rd lowest of 343 (Share of households that own their home, 2021 census)
5th-smallest households
1.7 people per household, 5th lowest of 343 (Average household size, 2021 census)

Share of households that own their home is 28.1% — about 39 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest3rd lowest of 343
Median total household income is $59,200 — about 70 percent of the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest8th lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 60.2% — about 2.1 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest15th highest of 343
Median age is 35.6 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest26th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 62.7% — about 39.2 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest57th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 25.0% — about 1.4 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest129th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 88% of the 2025 electors in today's Laurier—Sainte-Marie lived in the old Laurier—Sainte-Marie; by area, 52% of the riding came from the old Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

88.4%Laurier—Sainte-Marie 48.0% of the area · 90% of it kept

11.6%Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs 52.0% of the area · 28% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Steven Guilbeault	Liberal	27,286	52.1%	39.0%	+13.1
Nimâ Machouf	New Democratic	9,856	18.8%	30.1%	−11.3
Emmanuel Lapierre	Bloc Québécois	8,079	15.4%	19.9%	−4.5
Mathieu Fournier	Conservative	4,796	9.2%	4.4%	+4.8
Dylan Perceval-Maxwell	Green	1,452	2.8%	2.2%	+0.6

6 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Michel Labelle	Other	269	0.5%
Eugène Duplessis	People's	253	0.5%
Chantal Poulin	Other	195	0.4%
Adrien Welsh	Other	115	0.2%
Simon-Pierre Lauzon	Independent	62	0.1%
Dimitri Mourkes	Independent	38	0.1%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

8,079 votes

Bloc Québécois took fewer than the 17,430-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

4 of 173

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (169) · ■ won by another party (4).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 8,716 voters switching from Liberal to New Democratic — 16.6% of the 52,401 valid votes, 16.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0017,432

Liberal27,286

New Democratic9,856

Still Liberal by 17,430 votes. Actual margin: 17,430.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 58.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 48.7%, the New Democrats 19.9%, the Bloc Québécois 15.7%, the Conservatives 10.4%, the Greens 3.4% and the others 1.0%; in advance and special ballots, 56.9%, 17.3%, 15.0%, 7.3%, 1.9% and 1.2%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Laurier—Sainte-Marie, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	48.7%	56.9%	+8.2
New Democratic	19.9%	17.3%	−2.6
Bloc Québécois	15.7%	15.0%	−0.7
Conservative	10.4%	7.3%	−3.1
Green	3.4%	1.9%	−1.5
Other	1.0%	1.2%	+0.2

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Laurier—Sainte-Marie and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Laurier—Sainte-Marie — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/laurier-sainte-marie/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.