The Political Record · Federal electoral districts

Longueuil—Saint-Hubert

Federal riding · QC · No. 24042 · 2023 representation order
Fig. 1 — Longueuil—Saint-Hubert, 2023 boundaries.
Member
Natilien Joseph Liberal
2025 result
Liberal gain by 769 votes
Turnout
69.6% of 86,591 electors
Population
115,080 2021 census
Area
63 km²
Figures as of
2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Changed hands in 2025: One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (12 of 78 in Quebec)58
    Changed hands in 2025
    One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (12 of 78 in Quebec)
  • Decided before election day: On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 34327
    Decided before election day
    On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 343
  • Closeness of the race: Won by 769 votes (1.3 pts) · 15th of 343 in Canada15th
    Closeness of the race
    Won by 769 votes (1.3 pts) · 15th of 343 in Canada
In brief
  1. Natilien Joseph took the seat for the Liberals by 769 votes (+1.3 points).
  2. 1% of today's riding was drawn from other ridings in 2023.
  3. On election day alone, the Bloc Québécoiss led; advance and special ballots decided it.
  4. Share with French as a mother tongue is the 51st highest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Natilien Joseph
Liberal · first elected 2025-04-28 · first term
  • Member: Citizenship and Immigration
  • Member: Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities
45 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Combatting Hate Act.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 1% of today's Longueuil—Saint-Hubert came from ridings other than the old Longueuil—Saint-Hubert.

Share of today's areaFormer riding
99.3%Longueuil—Saint-Hubert
0.7%Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères 0% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Liberal gain
Elected
Natilien Joseph
Liberal
24,237
41.0% of valid votes
Margin
769
votes · +1.3 pts
Runner-up
Denis Trudel
Bloc Québécois
23,468
39.7% of valid votes
Liberal 41.0% · Bloc Québécois 39.7% · Conservative 14.3% · New Democratic 5.0%
Turnout69.6% of 86,591 electors
CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Natilien JosephLiberal24,23741.0%37.6%+3.4
Denis TrudelBloc Québécois23,46839.7%40.4%−0.7
Martine BoucherConservative8,44714.3%6.8%+7.5
Nesrine BenhadjNew Democratic2,9865.0%7.8%−2.8
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Swing needed to flip
0.7 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
8,447 votes
Conservative took more than the 769-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
98 of 191
3 polls ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (90) · ■ won by another party (98) · ▨ tied (3).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 385 voters switching from Liberal to Bloc Québécois — 0.7% of the 59,138 valid votes, 0.7 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Liberal24,237
Bloc Québécois23,468
Still Liberal by 769 votes. Actual margin: 769.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 56.8% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots. On election day alone, the Bloc Québécoiss led here — the seat was decided by ballots cast before the day.

Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Liberal39.1%43.5%+4.4
Bloc Québécois38.7%41.0%+2.3
Conservative16.4%11.6%−4.8
New Democratic5.9%4.0%−1.9
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhat kind of place this is

2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.

VIWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Longueuil—Saint-Hubert and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

The card

No. 24042QC · 2025
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert
Natilien Joseph
Result
Liberal gain by 769
Turnout
69.6%
Population
115,080
Area
63 km²
Changed hands in 2025: One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (12 of 78 in Quebec)58Changed hands in 2025Decided before election day: On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 34327Decided before election dayCloseness of the race: Won by 769 votes (1.3 pts) · 15th of 343 in Canada15thCloseness of the race
One of 343The Political Record

A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.

Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.

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