Conservative · first elected 2025-04-28 · first term
Member: Exercise of Powers Under the Building Canada Act
Member: Fisheries and Oceans
87 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Main Estimates, 2025-26.
IDid this riding change?
Essentially no. Today's North Island—Powell River covers almost exactly the same ground as the North Island—Powell River riding it replaced.
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative gain
Elected
Aaron Gunn
Conservative
31,356
38.7% of valid votes
Margin
4,999
votes · +6.1 pts
Runner-up
Tanille Johnston
New Democratic
26,357
32.6% of valid votes
Conservative 38.7% · New Democratic 32.6% · Liberal 26.2% · Green 1.9%
Turnout73.8% of 110,017 electors
Candidate
Party
Votes
%
2021
±
Aaron Gunn
Conservative
31,356
38.7%
36.0%
+2.7
Tanille Johnston
New Democratic
26,357
32.6%
39.2%
−6.6
Jennifer Lash
Liberal
21,218
26.2%
13.2%
+13.0
Jessica Wegg
Green
1,505
1.9%
5.8%
−3.9
2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
Paul Macknight
People's
341
0.4%
Glen Staples
Independent
152
0.2%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
3.0 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
21,218 votes
Liberal took more than the 4,999-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
105 of 258
4 polls ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (149) · ■ won by another party (105) · ▨ tied (4).
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 2,500 voters switching from Conservative to New Democratic — 3.1% of the 80,929 valid votes, 3.0 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative31,356
New Democratic26,357
Still Conservative by 4,999 votes. Actual margin: 4,999.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 51.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative38.3%39.2%+0.9
New Democratic35.8%29.2%−6.6
Liberal22.9%29.7%+6.8
Green2.3%1.4%−0.9
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
Median total household income is $75,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest97th lowest of 343
Median age is 51.2 — about 1.2 times the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest17th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 20.5% — about 73 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest103rd lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 11.6% — about 67 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest132nd lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 76.8% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest99th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.9% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest141st highest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — North Island—Powell River and its 5 neighbouring ridings.
Most populous in British ColumbiaChanged hands in 2025Boundaries unchanged in 2023
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
