The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 24054Quebec

Papineau

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Papineau
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Papineau is a federal riding in Quebec. Marjorie Michel (Liberal) has represented Papineau since the 2025 election. Marjorie Michel (Liberal) held Papineau for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 16,974 votes (36.4 points), with 53.0% of the vote. Sophy Forget Bélec (Bloc Québécois) was second with 16.6%, on a turnout of 65.6% of 72,069 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Papineau on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Papineau

Marjorie Michel's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Marjorie Michel

Member of Parliament for Papineau

Liberal

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Minister of Health

84 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Health.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Papineau, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 46,619 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Marjorie Michel	Liberal	24,700	53.0%
Sophy Forget Bélec	Bloc Québécois	7,726	16.6%
Niall Ricardo	New Democratic	7,606	16.3%
Julio Rivera	Conservative	4,927	10.6%
Xavier Watso	Parti Rhinocéros Party	676	1.5%
Noah Cherney	People's Party	455	1.0%
Others (2)		529	1.1%

Marjorie Michel (Liberal) won Papineau on April 28, 2025 with 24,700 votes, 53.0% of the 46,619 valid votes. Sophy Forget Bélec (Bloc Québécois) was second with 7,726 (16.6%), 16,974 votes and 36.4 points behind.

Of the 46,619 valid votes, Marjorie Michel (Liberal) took 53.0%, Sophy Forget Bélec (Bloc Québécois) 16.6%, Niall Ricardo (New Democratic) 16.3%, Julio Rivera (Conservative) 10.6%, Xavier Watso (Parti Rhinocéros Party) 1.5% and Noah Cherney (People's Party) 1.0%; the 2 other candidates took 1.1% together. Turnout was 65.6% of 72,069 electors: 47,259 ballots cast, 46,619 of them valid, for 8 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 3.7 (49.3% to 53.0%), the Bloc Québécois up 1.8 (14.8% to 16.6%), the New Democrats down 5.9 (22.2% to 16.3%), the Conservatives up 5.8 (4.8% to 10.6%) and the others up 1.4 (1.2% to 1.5%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Liberal

The party first in Papineau at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal42.0%by 3.0 points over the Bloc Québécois
2006†changed handsBloc Québécois39.4%by 0.3 points over the Liberals
2008changed handsLiberal41.7%by 5.1 points over the Bloc Québécois
2011Liberal38.0%by 8.4 points over the New Democrats
2015Liberal52.0%by 26.1 points over the New Democrats
2019Liberal51.1%by 31.9 points over the New Democrats
2021Liberal49.3%by 27.1 points over the New Democrats
2025Liberal53.0%by 36.4 points over the Bloc Québécois

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	42.0%	Bloc Québécois	3.0	carried, our estimate
2006†	Bloc Québécois	39.4%	Liberal	0.3	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	41.7%	Bloc Québécois	5.1	carried, our estimate
2011	Liberal	38.0%	New Democratic	8.4	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	52.0%	New Democratic	26.1	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	51.1%	New Democratic	31.9	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	49.3%	New Democratic	27.1	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	53.0%	Bloc Québécois	36.4	official result

The Liberals were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Bloc Québécois were first in 2006. In 2025 the Liberals took 53.0% of the vote here, 8.3 points above their average of 44.7% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (42.0%), 2008 (41.7%), 2011 (38.0%), 2015 (52.0%), 2019 (51.1%), 2021 (49.3%) and 2025 (53.0%) and the Bloc Québécois in 2006 (39.4%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2006 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Justin Trudeau, by 12,545 votes (27.6 pts)
2019 Liberal · Justin Trudeau, by 16,209 votes (31.9 pts)
2015 Liberal · Justin Trudeau, by 13,259 votes (26.1 pts)

In the old Papineau on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Papineau lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Papineau is

Population: 110,8102021 census
Area: 10km²
Density: 10,864people per km²
Electors: 72,069on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

2nd-smallest by area in Canada
10 km² · 2nd of 343
2nd-fewest home owners
27.9% of households own their home, 2nd lowest of 343 (Share of households that own their home, 2021 census)
5th-lowest household income
Median household income $57,200, 5th lowest of 343 (Median total household income, 2021 census)

Share of households that own their home is 27.9% — about 39 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest2nd lowest of 343
Median total household income is $57,200 — about 68 percent of the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest5th lowest of 343
Median age is 36.8 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest40th lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 44.2% — about 1.6 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest66th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 47.2% — about 29.5 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest70th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 34.5% — about 2.0 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest81st highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Papineau, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Papineau, but it is only 99% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Papineau 99.8% of the area · 99% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Marjorie Michel	Liberal	24,700	53.0%	49.3%	+3.7
Sophy Forget Bélec	Bloc Québécois	7,726	16.6%	14.8%	+1.8
Niall Ricardo	New Democratic	7,606	16.3%	22.2%	−5.9
Julio Rivera	Conservative	4,927	10.6%	4.8%	+5.8
Xavier Watso	Other	676	1.5%	1.2%	+1.4
Noah Cherney	People's	455	1.0%	2.3%	−1.3

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Stéphane Doucet	Other	321	0.7%
Garnet Colly	Other	208	0.4%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

7,606 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 16,974-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

1 of 168

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (166) · ■ won by another party (1) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 8,488 voters switching from Liberal to Bloc Québécois — 18.2% of the 46,619 valid votes, 18.2 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0016,976

Liberal24,700

Bloc Québécois7,726

Still Liberal by 16,974 votes. Actual margin: 16,974.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 66.3% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 51.4%, the Bloc Québécois 16.3%, the New Democrats 16.6%, the Conservatives 11.9% and the others 2.8%; in advance and special ballots, 56.1%, 17.2%, 15.8%, 8.0% and 2.1%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Papineau, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	51.4%	56.1%	+4.7
Bloc Québécois	16.3%	17.2%	+0.9
New Democratic	16.6%	15.8%	−0.8
Conservative	11.9%	8.0%	−3.9
Other	2.8%	2.1%	−0.7

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Papineau and its 7 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Papineau — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/papineau/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.