Skip to the record

The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 48034Alberta

Red Deer

Red Deer is a federal riding in Alberta. Burton Bailey (Conservative) has represented Red Deer since the 2025 election. Burton Bailey (Conservative) held Red Deer for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 30,675 votes (49.7 points), with 71.6% of the vote. Ayaz Bangash (Liberal) was second with 21.9%, on a turnout of 70.3% of 88,407 electors. Member as of .

Battle River—Crowfoot · ConservativePonoka—Didsbury · ConservativeRed Deer
Fig. 1 — Red Deer on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on . Open it on the board →

Who represents Red Deer

CBurton Bailey
Burton Bailey's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Burton Bailey

Member of Parliament for Red Deer

Conservative

MP since · first term

  • Health committee

80 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Red Deer, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Red Deer, April 28, 2025Of the 61,828 valid votes, Burton Bailey (Conservative) took 71.6%, Ayaz Bangash (Liberal) 21.9%, Elias Assefa (New Democratic) 3.8%, Kyla Courte (People's Party) 1.3% and Ashley MacDonald (Green) 1.0%; one other candidate took 0.4%.2025Turnout 70.3% of 88,407 electorsBurton BaileyConservative71.6% · 44,23930,675 votes ahead · 49.6 ptsAyaz BangashLiberal21.9% · 13,564Elias AssefaNew Democratic3.8% · 2,375Kyla CourtePeople's Party1.3% · 813Ashley MacDonaldGreen1.0% · 618Other (1)0.4% · 219050%100%
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Red Deer, April 28, 2025Of the 61,828 valid votes, Burton Bailey (Conservative) took 71.6%, Ayaz Bangash (Liberal) 21.9%, Elias Assefa (New Democratic) 3.8%, Kyla Courte (People's Party) 1.3% and Ashley MacDonald (Green) 1.0%; one other candidate took 0.4%.2025Turnout 70.3% of 88,407 electorsBurton BaileyConservative71.6% · 44,23930,675 votes ahead · 49.6 ptsAyaz BangashLiberal21.9% · 13,564Elias AssefaNew Democratic3.8% · 2,375Kyla CourtePeople's Party1.3% · 813Ashley MacDonaldGreen1.0% · 618Other (1)0.4% · 219050%100%
Shares of the 61,828 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Burton BaileyConservative44,23971.6%
Ayaz BangashLiberal13,56421.9%
Elias AssefaNew Democratic2,3753.8%
Kyla CourtePeople's Party8131.3%
Ashley MacDonaldGreen6181.0%
Other (1)2190.4%

Burton Bailey (Conservative) won Red Deer on with 44,239 votes, 71.6% of the 61,828 valid votes. Ayaz Bangash (Liberal) was second with 13,564 (21.9%), 30,675 votes and 49.7 points behind.

Of the 61,828 valid votes, Burton Bailey (Conservative) took 71.6%, Ayaz Bangash (Liberal) 21.9%, Elias Assefa (New Democratic) 3.8%, Kyla Courte (People's Party) 1.3% and Ashley MacDonald (Green) 1.0%; one other candidate took 0.4%. Turnout was 70.3% of 88,407 electors: 62,137 ballots cast, 61,828 of them valid, for 6 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 11.4 (60.2% to 71.6%), the Liberals up 13.8 (8.1% to 21.9%), the New Democrats down 13.5 (17.3% to 3.8%) and the People's Party down 9.9 (11.2% to 1.3%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Conservative stronghold

The party first in Red Deer at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

  1. 2004Conservative74.8%by 63.0 points over the Liberals
  2. 2006Conservative75.8%by 65.8 points over the New Democrats
  3. 2008Conservative73.2%by 62.1 points over the New Democrats
  4. 2011Conservative75.9%by 60.8 points over the New Democrats
  5. 2015Conservative72.9%by 58.9 points over the Liberals
  6. 2019Conservative80.1%by 72.2 points over the New Democrats
  7. 2021Conservative60.2%by 42.9 points over the New Democrats
  8. 2025Conservative71.6%by 49.7 points over the Liberals
Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.
The figures
YearFirstShareSecondMargin (pts)Basis
2004Conservative74.8%Liberal63.0carried, our estimate
2006Conservative75.8%New Democratic65.8carried, our estimate
2008Conservative73.2%New Democratic62.1carried, our estimate
2011Conservative75.9%New Democratic60.8carried, our estimate
2015Conservative72.9%Liberal58.9carried, our estimate
2019Conservative80.1%New Democratic72.2carried, our estimate
2021Conservative60.2%New Democratic42.9transposed by Elections Canada
2025Conservative71.6%Liberal49.7official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 59.4 points over the next party. In 2025 the Conservatives took 71.6% of the vote here, 1.7 points below their average of 73.3% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (74.8%), 2006 (75.8%), 2008 (73.2%), 2011 (75.9%), 2015 (72.9%), 2019 (80.1%), 2021 (60.2%) and 2025 (71.6%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025
  • 2021 Conservative · Earl Dreeshen, by 31,854 votes (50.3 pts)
  • 2019 Conservative · Earl Dreeshen, by 49,819 votes (73.0 pts)
  • 2015 Conservative · Earl Dreeshen, by 37,889 votes (60.9 pts)

In Red Deer—Mountain View on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Red Deer lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Red Deer is

Population
114,9752021 census
Area
2,090km²
Density
55people per km²
Electors
88,407on the 2025 lists
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Won every election-day poll: All 142 election-day polls went to the winner · one of 15 of 34315
    Won every election-day poll
    All 142 election-day polls went to the winner · one of 15 of 343
  • Median age is 38.8 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
    highestlowest89th lowest of 343
  • Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 21.3% — about 76 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
    highestlowest110th lowest of 343
  • Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.1% — about 69 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
    highestlowest112th lowest of 343
  • Share of households that own their home is 67.1% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.
    highestlowest125th lowest of 343
  • Median total household income is $86,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.
    highestlowest147th highest of 343
  • Share who are immigrants is 15.6% — a little lower than the median riding's 17.3%.
    highestlowest165th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 61% of the 2025 electors in today's Red Deer lived in the old Red Deer—Mountain View; by area, 6% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding
60.9%Red Deer—Mountain View 94.5% of the area · 26% of it kept
39.1%Red Deer—Lacombe 5.4% of the area · 2% of it kept
How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Burton BaileyConservative44,23971.6%60.2%+11.4
Ayaz BangashLiberal13,56421.9%8.1%+13.8
Elias AssefaNew Democratic2,3753.8%17.3%−13.5
Kyla CourtePeople's8131.3%11.2%−9.9
Ashley MacDonaldGreen6181.0%—+1.0
1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote
Brandon PringleOther2190.4%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin
2,375 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 30,675-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
0 of 142
No poll ended in a tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (142) · ■ won by another party (0).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 15,338 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 24.8% of the 61,828 valid votes, 24.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Conservative44,239
Liberal13,564
Still Conservative by 30,675 votes. Actual margin: 30,675.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 59.8% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 71.3%, the Liberals 21.5%, the New Democrats 4.3%, the People's Party 1.4% and the Greens 1.1%; in advance and special ballots, 71.9%, 22.7%, 3.1%, 1.2% and 0.8%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Red Deer, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Red Deer, April 28, 2025On election day the Conservatives took 71.3%, the Liberals 21.5%, the New Democrats 4.3%, the People's Party 1.4% and the Greens 1.1%; in advance and special ballots, 71.9%, 22.7%, 3.1%, 1.2% and 0.8%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapConservative71.3%71.9%+0.6 ptsLiberal21.5%22.7%+1.2 ptsNew Democratic4.3%3.1%−1.2 ptsPeople's Party1.4%1.2%−0.2 ptsGreen1.1%0.8%−0.3 pts050%100%
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Red Deer, April 28, 2025On election day the Conservatives took 71.3%, the Liberals 21.5%, the New Democrats 4.3%, the People's Party 1.4% and the Greens 1.1%; in advance and special ballots, 71.9%, 22.7%, 3.1%, 1.2% and 0.8%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapConservative71.3%71.9%+0.6 ptsLiberal21.5%22.7%+1.2 ptsNew Democratic4.3%3.1%−1.2 ptsPeople's Party1.4%1.2%−0.2 ptsGreen1.1%0.8%−0.3 pts050%100%
Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
PartyElection dayAdvance and specialGap
Conservative71.3%71.9%+0.6
Liberal21.5%22.7%+1.2
New Democratic4.3%3.1%−1.2
People's Party1.4%1.2%−0.2
Green1.1%0.8%−0.3
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Red Deer and its 2 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Red Deer — federal riding profile and 2025 results." The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/red-deer/ Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.