The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Red Deer
Federal riding · AB · No. 48034 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Burton Bailey Conservative
- 2025 result
- Conservative hold by 30,675 votes
- Turnout
- 70.3% of 88,407 electors
- Population
- 114,975 2021 census
- Area
- 2,090 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Won every election-day pollAll 142 election-day polls went to the winner · one of 15 of 343
- Width of the marginWon by 49.7 points (30,675 votes) · 20th of 343 in Canada
- Length of the ballot6 candidates stood · 61st of 343 in Canada
In brief
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Burton Bailey
- Member: Health
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 6% of today's Red Deer came from ridings other than the old Red Deer—Mountain View.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
94.5%Red Deer—Mountain View 26% of it kept
5.4%Red Deer—Lacombe 2% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative hold
Elected
Burton Bailey
Conservative
44,239
71.6% of valid votes
Margin
30,675
votes · +49.7 pts
Runner-up
Ayaz Bangash
Liberal
13,564
21.9% of valid votes
Conservative 71.6% · Liberal 21.9% · New Democratic 3.8% · People's 1.3% · Green 1.0%
Turnout70.3% of 88,407 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Bailey | Conservative | 44,239 | 71.6% | 60.2% | +11.4 |
| Ayaz Bangash | Liberal | 13,564 | 21.9% | 8.1% | +13.8 |
| Elias Assefa | New Democratic | 2,375 | 3.8% | 17.3% | −13.5 |
| Kyla Courte | People's | 813 | 1.3% | 11.2% | −9.9 |
| Ashley MacDonald | Green | 618 | 1.0% | — | +1.0 |
1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote
| Brandon Pringle | Other | 219 | 0.4% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
24.9 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
2,375 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 30,675-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
0 of 142
No poll ended in a tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 15,338 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 24.8% of the 61,828 valid votes, 24.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative44,239
Liberal13,564
Still Conservative by 30,675 votes. Actual margin: 30,675.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 59.8% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative71.3%71.9%+0.6
Liberal21.5%22.7%+1.2
New Democratic4.3%3.1%−1.2
People's1.4%1.2%−0.2
Green1.1%0.8%−0.3
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $86,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest147th highest of 343
- Median age is 38.8 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest89th lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 21.3% — about 76 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest110th lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 15.6% — a little lower than the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest165th lowest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 67.1% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest125th lowest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.1% — about 69 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest112th lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
The card
No. 48034AB · 2025
Red Deer
Burton Bailey
- Result
- Conservative hold by 30,675
- Turnout
- 70.3%
- Population
- 114,975
- Area
- 2,090 km²
Won every election-day pollWidth of the marginLength of the ballot
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.