The Political Record · Federal electoral districts

Thunder Bay—Rainy River

Federal riding · ON · No. 35107 · 2023 representation order
Fig. 1 — Thunder Bay—Rainy River, 2023 boundaries.
Member
Marcus Powlowski Liberal
2025 result
Liberal hold by 2,440 votes
Turnout
66.4% of 65,953 electors
Population
82,360 2021 census
Area
40,066 km²
Figures as of
2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Least populous in Ontario: 82,360 people, 2021 census · 2nd of 122 in Ontario · 31st of 343 in Canada2nd
    Least populous in Ontario
    82,360 people, 2021 census · 2nd of 122 in Ontario · 31st of 343 in Canada
  • Decided before election day: On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 34327
    Decided before election day
    On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 343
  • Area, largest first: 40,066 km² · 34th of 343 in Canada34th
    Area, largest first
    40,066 km² · 34th of 343 in Canada
In brief
  1. Marcus Powlowski held the seat for the Liberals by 2,440 votes (+5.6 points).
  2. The riding shrank in 2023: it keeps 99% of the old Thunder Bay—Rainy River.
  3. On election day alone, the Conservatives led; advance and special ballots decided it.
  4. Share who are immigrants is the 73rd lowest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Marcus Powlowski
Liberal · first elected 2019-10-21 · 3 terms
  • Co-Chair: Medical Assistance in Dying
  • Co-Chair: Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
  • Member: Medical Assistance in Dying
  • Member: Public Safety and National Security
22 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 1.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Thunder Bay—Rainy River comes from the old Thunder Bay—Rainy River, but it is only 99% of that riding. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's areaFormer riding
99.9%Thunder Bay—Rainy River 99% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Liberal hold
Elected
Marcus Powlowski
Liberal
21,125
48.5% of valid votes
Margin
2,440
votes · +5.6 pts
Runner-up
Brendan Hyatt
Conservative
18,685
42.9% of valid votes
Liberal 48.5% · Conservative 42.9% · New Democratic 6.8% · People's 1.0%
Turnout66.4% of 65,953 electors
CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Marcus PowlowskiLiberal21,12548.5%34.0%+14.5
Brendan HyattConservative18,68542.9%29.1%+13.8
Yuk-Sem WonNew Democratic2,9546.8%28.2%−21.4
Sabrina ReePeople's4331.0%6.5%−5.5
1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote
Eric ArnerGreen3340.8%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Swing needed to flip
2.8 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
2,954 votes
New Democratic took more than the 2,440-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
75 of 178
1 poll ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (102) · ■ won by another party (75) · ▨ tied (1).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 1,221 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 2.8% of the 43,531 valid votes, 2.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Liberal21,125
Conservative18,685
Still Liberal by 2,440 votes. Actual margin: 2,440.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 62.8% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots. On election day alone, the Conservatives led here — the seat was decided by ballots cast before the day.

Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative45.6%38.4%−7.2
Liberal45.0%54.4%+9.4
New Democratic7.5%5.6%−1.9
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhat kind of place this is

2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.

VIWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Thunder Bay—Rainy River and its 2 neighbouring ridings.

The card

No. 35107ON · 2025
Thunder Bay—Rainy River
Marcus Powlowski
Result
Liberal hold by 2,440
Turnout
66.4%
Population
82,360
Area
40,066 km²
Least populous in Ontario: 82,360 people, 2021 census · 2nd of 122 in Ontario · 31st of 343 in Canada2ndLeast populous in OntarioDecided before election day: On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 34327Decided before election dayArea, largest first: 40,066 km² · 34th of 343 in Canada34thArea, largest first
One of 343The Political Record

A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.

Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.

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