The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35107Ontario

Thunder Bay—Rainy River

Thunder Bay—Rainy River is a federal riding in Ontario. Marcus Powlowski (Liberal, first elected to the House in 2019) represents Thunder Bay—Rainy River. Marcus Powlowski (Liberal) held Thunder Bay—Rainy River for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 2,440 votes (5.6 points), with 48.5% of the vote. Brendan Hyatt (Conservative) was second with 42.9%, on a turnout of 66.4% of 65,953 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Thunder Bay—Rainy River on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Thunder Bay—Rainy River

Marcus Powlowski's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Marcus Powlowski

Member of Parliament for Thunder Bay—Rainy River

Liberal

MP since 2019-10-21 · 3 terms

Co-Chair, Medical Assistance in Dying committee
Co-Chair, Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
Medical Assistance in Dying committee
Public Safety and National Security committee

26 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 1.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 43,531 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Marcus Powlowski	Liberal	21,125	48.5%
Brendan Hyatt	Conservative	18,685	42.9%
Yuk-Sem Won	New Democratic	2,954	6.8%
Sabrina Ree	People's Party	433	1.0%
Other (1)		334	0.8%

Marcus Powlowski (Liberal) won Thunder Bay—Rainy River on April 28, 2025 with 21,125 votes, 48.5% of the 43,531 valid votes. Brendan Hyatt (Conservative) was second with 18,685 (42.9%), 2,440 votes and 5.6 points behind.

Of the 43,531 valid votes, Marcus Powlowski (Liberal) took 48.5%, Brendan Hyatt (Conservative) 42.9%, Yuk-Sem Won (New Democratic) 6.8% and Sabrina Ree (People's Party) 1.0%; one other candidate took 0.8%. Turnout was 66.4% of 65,953 electors: 43,780 ballots cast, 43,531 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 14.5 (34.0% to 48.5%), the Conservatives up 13.8 (29.1% to 42.9%), the New Democrats down 21.4 (28.2% to 6.8%) and the People's Party down 5.5 (6.5% to 1.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Thunder Bay—Rainy River at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal39.4%by 9.7 points over the New Democrats
2006†Liberal35.1%by 1.7 points over the New Democrats
2008changed handsNew Democratic40.3%by 8.0 points over the Liberals
2011New Democratic48.7%by 21.5 points over the Conservatives
2015changed handsLiberal44.0%by 14.3 points over the New Democrats
2019Liberal35.3%by 6.0 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal34.0%by 4.9 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal48.5%by 5.6 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	39.4%	New Democratic	9.7	carried, our estimate
2006†	Liberal	35.1%	New Democratic	1.7	carried, our estimate
2008	New Democratic	40.3%	Liberal	8.0	carried, our estimate
2011	New Democratic	48.7%	Conservative	21.5	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	44.0%	New Democratic	14.3	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	35.3%	Conservative	6.0	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	34.0%	Conservative	4.9	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	48.5%	Conservative	5.6	official result

The Liberals were first at six of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the NDP at two; it changed hands twice. In 2025 the Liberals took 48.5% of the vote here, 14.0 points above their average of 34.5% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (39.4%), 2006 (35.1%), 2015 (44.0%), 2019 (35.3%), 2021 (34.0%) and 2025 (48.5%) and the NDP in 2008 (40.3%) and 2011 (48.7%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2006 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Marcus Powlowski, by 1,984 votes (5.0 pts)
2019 Liberal · Marcus Powlowski, by 2,459 votes (6.0 pts)
2015 Liberal · Don Rusnak, by 6,040 votes (14.3 pts)

In the old Thunder Bay—Rainy River on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Thunder Bay—Rainy River lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Thunder Bay—Rainy River is

Population: 82,3602021 census
Area: 40,066km²
Density: 2.1people per km²
Electors: 65,953on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

2nd-least populous in Ontario
82,360 people, 2021 census · 2nd of 122 in Ontario · 31st of 343 in Canada
Decided before election day
On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 343

Share who are immigrants is 6.5% — about 38 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest73rd lowest of 343
Median age is 44.8 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest81st highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 20.0% — about 71 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest99th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $78,500 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest128th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 74.1% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest133rd highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.6% — about the same as the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest165th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Thunder Bay—Rainy River, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Thunder Bay—Rainy River, but it is only 99% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Thunder Bay—Rainy River 99.9% of the area · 99% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Marcus Powlowski	Liberal	21,125	48.5%	34.0%	+14.5
Brendan Hyatt	Conservative	18,685	42.9%	29.1%	+13.8
Yuk-Sem Won	New Democratic	2,954	6.8%	28.2%	−21.4
Sabrina Ree	People's	433	1.0%	6.5%	−5.5

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Eric Arner

Green

334

0.8%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,954 votes

New Democratic took more than the 2,440-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.

Election-day polls won by others

75 of 178

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (102) · ■ won by another party (75) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 1,221 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 2.8% of the 43,531 valid votes, 2.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 002,442

Liberal21,125

Conservative18,685

Still Liberal by 2,440 votes. Actual margin: 2,440.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 62.8% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots. On election day alone, the Conservatives led here — the seat was decided by ballots cast before the day.

On election day the Liberals took 45.0%, the Conservatives 45.6% and the New Democrats 7.5%; in advance and special ballots, 54.4%, 38.4% and 5.6%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	45.0%	54.4%	+9.4
Conservative	45.6%	38.4%	−7.2
New Democratic	7.5%	5.6%	−1.9

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Thunder Bay—Rainy River and its 2 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Thunder Bay—Rainy River — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/thunder-bay-rainy-river/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.