The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35108Ontario

Thunder Bay—Superior North

Thunder Bay—Supérieur-Nord

Thunder Bay—Superior North is a federal riding in Ontario. Patty Hajdu (Liberal, first elected to the House in 2015) represents Thunder Bay—Superior North. Patty Hajdu (Liberal) held Thunder Bay—Superior North for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 8,867 votes (19.5 points), with 55.2% of the vote. Bob Herman (Conservative) was second with 35.7%, on a turnout of 67.8% of 67,546 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Thunder Bay—Superior North on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Thunder Bay—Superior North

Patty Hajdu's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Patty Hajdu

Member of Parliament for Thunder Bay—Superior North

Liberal

MP since 2015-10-19 · 4 terms

Minister of Jobs and Families
Minister responsible for the Federal Economic Development Agency for Northern Ontario

344 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on The Economy.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Thunder Bay—Superior North, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 45,512 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Patty Hajdu	Liberal	25,134	55.2%
Bob Herman	Conservative	16,267	35.7%
Joy Wakefield	New Democratic	3,235	7.1%
Amos Bradley	People's Party	459	1.0%
Other (1)		417	0.9%

Patty Hajdu (Liberal) won Thunder Bay—Superior North on April 28, 2025 with 25,134 votes, 55.2% of the 45,512 valid votes. Bob Herman (Conservative) was second with 16,267 (35.7%), 8,867 votes and 19.5 points behind.

Of the 45,512 valid votes, Patty Hajdu (Liberal) took 55.2%, Bob Herman (Conservative) 35.7%, Joy Wakefield (New Democratic) 7.1% and Amos Bradley (People's Party) 1.0%; one other candidate took 0.9%. Turnout was 67.8% of 67,546 electors: 45,783 ballots cast, 45,512 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 15.1 (40.1% to 55.2%), the Conservatives up 11.9 (23.8% to 35.7%), the New Democrats down 20.4 (27.5% to 7.1%) and the People's Party down 4.9 (5.9% to 1.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Thunder Bay—Superior North at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal42.8%by 13.4 points over the New Democrats
2006†Liberal36.1%by 1.2 points over the New Democrats
2008changed handsNew Democratic37.0%by 8.5 points over the Liberals
2011New Democratic49.5%by 19.5 points over the Conservatives
2015changed handsLiberal44.8%by 21.4 points over the New Democrats
2019Liberal42.6%by 16.9 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal40.1%by 12.6 points over the New Democrats
2025Liberal55.2%by 19.5 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	42.8%	New Democratic	13.4	carried, our estimate
2006†	Liberal	36.1%	New Democratic	1.2	carried, our estimate
2008	New Democratic	37.0%	Liberal	8.5	carried, our estimate
2011	New Democratic	49.5%	Conservative	19.5	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	44.8%	New Democratic	21.4	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	42.6%	Conservative	16.9	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	40.1%	New Democratic	12.6	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	55.2%	Conservative	19.5	official result

The Liberals were first at six of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the NDP at two; it changed hands twice. In 2025 the Liberals took 55.2% of the vote here, 19.3 points above their average of 35.9% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (42.8%), 2006 (36.1%), 2015 (44.8%), 2019 (42.6%), 2021 (40.1%) and 2025 (55.2%) and the NDP in 2008 (37.0%) and 2011 (49.5%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2006 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Patty Hajdu, by 5,649 votes (13.6 pts)
2019 Liberal · Patty Hajdu, by 7,466 votes (17.3 pts)
2015 Liberal · Patty Hajdu, by 9,730 votes (21.8 pts)

In the old Thunder Bay—Superior North on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Thunder Bay—Superior North lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Thunder Bay—Superior North is

Population: 86,1452021 census
Area: 169,756km²
Density: 0.51people per km²
Electors: 67,546on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

3rd-largest by area in Ontario
169,756 km² · 3rd of 122 in Ontario · 13th of 343 in Canada
3rd-least populous in Ontario
86,145 people, 2021 census · 3rd of 122 in Ontario · 39th of 343 in Canada

Median age is 44.0 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest97th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 8.4% — about 49 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest99th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 3.6% — about 2.3 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest111th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 68.6% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest138th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $79,500 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest141st lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 26.8% — a little lower than the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest162nd lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 98% of the 2025 electors in today's Thunder Bay—Superior North lived in the old Thunder Bay—Superior North; by area, 43% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

97.8%Thunder Bay—Superior North 57.4% of the area

1.8%Kenora 18.0% of the area · 9% of it kept

0.2%Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing 8.9% of the area · 13% of it kept

0.1%Timmins—James Bay 14.4% of the area · 9% of it kept

0.0%Thunder Bay—Rainy River 0.2% of the area · 1% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Patty Hajdu	Liberal	25,134	55.2%	40.1%	+15.1
Bob Herman	Conservative	16,267	35.7%	23.8%	+11.9
Joy Wakefield	New Democratic	3,235	7.1%	27.5%	−20.4
Amos Bradley	People's	459	1.0%	5.9%	−4.9

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

John Malcolm Northey

Green

417

0.9%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

3,235 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 8,867-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

39 of 155

2 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (114) · ■ won by another party (39) · ▨ tied (2).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 4,434 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 9.7% of the 45,512 valid votes, 9.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 008,868

Liberal25,134

Conservative16,267

Still Liberal by 8,867 votes. Actual margin: 8,867.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 55.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 51.4%, the Conservatives 37.8% and the New Democrats 8.4%; in advance and special ballots, 60.1%, 33.2% and 5.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Thunder Bay—Superior North, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	51.4%	60.1%	+8.7
Conservative	37.8%	33.2%	−4.6
New Democratic	8.4%	5.5%	−2.9

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Thunder Bay—Superior North and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Thunder Bay—Superior North — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/thunder-bay-superior-north/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.