Poll watch · September 2026 · figures as of
The Widest Gap Since the Vote
At 15.5 points, the Liberal lead over the Conservatives in September 2026’s poll average is the widest in the 17 months since the 2025 election, past March’s 13.3. No party’s move from August is larger than the pollsters’ stated error.
Where did the national polls stand in September 2026?
- Liberal lead15.5 ptswidest of 17 months; March 13.3 next
- Liberal mean46.8%highest of 17 months; March 46.0% next
- Liberal mean against the vote3.0 ptsas far over the vote as any of 17 months; 2.2 next
- Weekly lead16.4 ptswidest of 74 weeks; week to September 20, 2026 15.0 next
- Largest move2.3 ptsinside the stated error, ±2.6
The Liberal lead over the Conservatives in the national polls’ monthly mean was 15.5 points in September 2026, the widest of the 17 months since the April 2025 election. Every party’s move from August 2026 was inside the pollsters’ typical stated error of ±2.6 points, the largest move 2.3 points. Of the 17 months since the election, the next widest lead was March 2026’s 13.3 points. The Liberal mean of the national polls in September 2026, 46.8%, was the highest of the 17 months since the election. The Conservative mean of the national polls in September 2026, 31.3%, level with August 2026, was the lowest of the 17 months since the election. In the trailing weekly mean the Liberal lead was 16.4 points in the week to September 27, 2026, the widest of the 74 weeks since the election. Nanos Research’s poll to September 25, 2026 put the Liberals 22 points ahead of the Conservatives, the widest lead of the 233 national polls since the election. The Liberal mean stood 3 points over the party’s vote of April 28, 2025, as far over it as any of the 17 months since. The Conservative mean stood 10 points under the party’s 41.3%, as far under it as any month since the election. Statistics Canada’s releases in September 2026 put consumer prices 3.0% over the year to August 2026 and the unemployment rate for that month at 6.4%. This chapter closes on the month and is not rewritten.
A move inside the pollsters’ stated error is said to be inside it; nothing here states a cause.
I. The month’s polls
Liberal lead: 15.5 pts
The national polls since the election, a 14-day trailing mean taken weekly, every pollster, May 4, 2025 to September 30, 2026; each poll a dot; the wash round a line is ±2.6 points, the pollsters’ typical stated error for one poll. Under the lines, the lead alone: a bar above the zero line is a Liberal lead, below it a Conservative one; the band round zero is the same ±2.6.
The month’s polls, from 5 pollsters, ran from September 4, 2026 to September 26, 2026. The Liberal reading ran from 44.0% to 49.9% and led the Conservative in every poll, by 12 to 22 points. Two trackers, Nanos Research and Liaison Strategies, published 4 and 4 of the month’s polls. The median sample was 1,526, and 12 of the 12 polls stated an error. The trailing weekly mean is the mean of the polls in the fourteen days to each Sunday.
| Month | Polls | LPC | CPC | Lead (pts) | BQ | NDP | GPC | PPC | CPI released | Unemployment released | Policy rate at month end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026record | 12 | 46.8% | 31.3% | 15.5 | 5.9% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 6.4% | 2.25% |
| The record · Liberal lead, 15.5 pts: widest of 17 months; March 13.3 next | |||||||||||
| August 2026 | 15 | 44.5% | 31.3% | 13.2 | 6.3% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 6.4% | 2.25% |
| July 2026 | 13 | 43.1% | 33.7% | 9.4 | 6.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 6.5% | 2.25% |
| June 2026 | 14 | 43.5% | 33.0% | 10.5 | 6.2% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 2.25% |
| May 2026 | 14 | 43.9% | 32.9% | 11.0 | 6.1% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 6.9% | 2.25% |
| April 2026 | 15 | 44.9% | 33.4% | 11.5 | 6.1% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 6.7% | 2.25% |
| March 2026next | 17 | 46.0% | 32.7% | 13.3 | 5.6% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 6.7% | 2.25% |
| February 2026 | 17 | 43.5% | 34.9% | 8.6 | 6.7% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 6.5% | 2.25% |
| January 2026 | 17 | 40.7% | 36.1% | 4.6 | 7.3% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 6.8% | 2.25% |
| December 2025 | 14 | 39.4% | 38.0% | 1.4 | 7.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 6.5% | 2.25% |
17 rows in all, the first 10 printed; every row is in months.csv · sources 1, 2, 3, 4
Each month’s means stand beside what Statistics Canada released in that month and the Bank of Canada’s policy rate at its end. A release is dated by the day it was published, not the month it measures. All 17 months since the election are in months.csv, the month’s polls in month_polls.csv and every poll since the election in polls.csv.
II. The dates
Statistics Canada released the Labour Force Survey for August 2026 on September 4, 2026 and the Consumer Price Index for August 2026 on September 14, 2026. The Bank of Canada’s target for the overnight rate did not change in the month and had not since October 30, 2025. The House sat for the first time since June 18, 2026 on September 21, 2026, 5 sitting days in the month. The measures and the cards dated in the month, each resting on its official record:
- · cbsa-asfc.gc.ca · Canada’s new surtax on U.S. goods · 15–50% · Canada puts a surtax of 15%, 25% or 50%, by product, on listed U.S. goods.
- · cbsa-asfc.gc.ca · Canada’s steel and aluminum surtax to 50% · 50% · Canada raises its surtax on some U.S. steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%; the rest stay at 25%.
- · ourcommons.ca · Brantford—Brant South falls vacant · Larry Brock, Conservative member for Brantford—Brant South (Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations until 2026-09-16), resigns his seat.
III. The weeks
The month week by week, newest first, each week Monday to Sunday and entered by its Sunday. Each entry gives the fourteen-day mean the week leaves and its largest move from the week before, against the pollsters’ typical stated error. Beside them it sets what Statistics Canada, the Bank of Canada and Hansard dated in the week, and reads nothing further from the two. Every week’s figures are in weeks.csv.
The 3 national polls that ended in the week to September 27, 2026 leave the fourteen-day mean at 47.0% Liberal, 30.6% Conservative and 12.2% NDP. The largest move from the week before, 1.2 points in the Conservative and NDP means, is inside the pollsters’ typical stated error of ±2.6 points. Hansard lists 5 sitting days of the House in the week.
The 2 national polls that ended in the week to September 20, 2026 leave the fourteen-day mean at 46.8% Liberal, 31.8% Conservative and 11.0% NDP. The largest move from the week before, 0.3 points in the NDP and People's Party means, is inside the pollsters’ typical stated error of ±2.6 points. Statistics Canada released the Consumer Price Index for August 2026 on September 14, 2026, prices 3.0% over twelve months. Hansard lists no sitting of the House in the week.
The 5 national polls that ended in the week to September 13, 2026 leave the fourteen-day mean at 46.7% Liberal, 31.9% Conservative and 10.7% NDP. The largest move from the week before, 1.5 points in the Liberal mean, is inside the pollsters’ typical stated error of ±2.6 points. Hansard lists no sitting of the House in the week.
The 2 national polls that ended in the week to September 6, 2026 leave the fourteen-day mean at 45.2% Liberal, 32.0% Conservative and 11.3% NDP. The largest move from the week before, 0.9 points in the Liberal mean, is inside the pollsters’ typical stated error of ±2.6 points. Statistics Canada released the Labour Force Survey for August 2026 on September 4, 2026, unemployment at 6.4%. Hansard lists no sitting of the House in the week.
What this does not say, and how it was made. The Liberal lead over the Conservatives in the chapter's monthly mean is the widest of the months since the election. Two series may be shown moving together, each dated and both figures printed. The page never states a cause as fact: each reading below is labelled a reading, with what would confirm or refute it. A move inside the pollsters’ stated error is said to be inside it. A census figure describes a riding, never its voters. A chapter of the poll watch closes on its month: its words are not rewritten, and its figures are re-exported on every sync so a poll added to the month later moves them.