Poll watch · October 2026 · figures as of
Low Water in October
At 29.8%, the Conservative mean of the national polls in October 2026 was the lowest of the 18 months since the 2025 election, under September’s 31.3. No party’s move from September was larger than the pollsters’ stated error.
Where did the national polls stand in October 2026?
- Conservative mean29.8%lowest of 18 months; September 31.3% next
- Conservative mean against the vote−11.5 ptsas far under the vote as any of 18 months; -10.0 next
- Liberal lead17.1 ptswidest of 18 months; September 15.5 next
- Conservative weekly mean28.2%lowest of 78 weeks; week to October 4, 2026 28.9% next
- Largest move1.5 ptsinside the stated error, ±2.7
The Conservative mean of the national polls was 29.8% in October 2026, the lowest of the 18 months since the April 2025 election. Every party’s move from September 2026 was inside the pollsters’ typical stated error, the margin of error they publish, of ±2.7 points, the largest 1.5 points. The next lowest monthly Conservative mean of the national polls, 31.3%, came in both September 2026 and August 2026. In October 2026 the Conservative mean stood 11.5 pts under the party’s vote of April 28, 2025, as far under it as any of the 18 months. The Liberal lead over the Conservatives in the monthly mean was 17.1 pts in October 2026, the widest of the 18 months since the election. In the two weeks to October 11, 2026, the Conservative mean of the national polls was 28.2%, the lowest of the 78 weeks since the election. The NDP’s mean of the national polls was 12.3% in October 2026, the highest of the 18 months since the election. The Liberal mean of the national polls was 46.9% in October 2026, also the highest of the 18 months. This chapter closes on the month and is not rewritten.
A move inside the pollsters’ stated error is said to be inside it; nothing here states a cause.
I. The month’s polls
Conservative mean: 29.8%
The national polls since the election, a 14-day trailing mean taken weekly, every pollster, May 4, 2025 to October 31, 2026; each poll a dot; the wash round a line is ±2.7 points, the pollsters’ typical stated error for one poll. Under the lines, the lead alone: a bar above the zero line is a Liberal lead, below it a Conservative one; the band round zero is the same ±2.7.
The national polls with fieldwork ending in October 2026 numbered 13, from 5 pollsters, their typical published margin of error ±2.7 points. Each of the 13 national polls of October 2026 put the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives, by 12.0 pts at the least. Liaison Strategies published 5 of the month’s national polls and Nanos Research published 4.
| Fieldwork to | Pollster | Sample | Stated error (±pts) | LPC | CPC | BQ | NDP | GPC | PPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Ekos | 2,020 | 1.7 | 47.2% | 26.4% | 4.6% | 15.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| 2026-10-02 | Nanos Research | 1,020 | 3.1 | 49.1% | 28.2% | 6.3% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| 2026-10-03 | Liaison Strategies | 1,526 | 2.5 | 46.0% | 28.0% | 6.0% | 15.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 2026-10-09 | Nanos Research | 1,034 | 3.1 | 48.8% | 29.5% | 6.4% | 11.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% |
| 2026-10-10 | Liaison Strategies | 1,263 | 2.8 | 45.0% | 29.0% | 6.0% | 15.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 2026-10-12 | Léger | 1,525 | 2.5 | 48.0% | 33.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | — |
| 2026-10-13 | Abacus Data | 3,197 | 1.7 | 46.0% | 34.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| 2026-10-16 | Nanos Research | 1,016 | 3.1 | 50.6% | 28.3% | 6.2% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% |
| 2026-10-17 | Liaison Strategies | 1,000 | 3.1 | 45.0% | 30.0% | 6.0% | 14.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 2026-10-21 | Abacus Data | 1,500 | 2.5 | 48.0% | 32.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
13 rows in all, the first 10 printed; every row is in month_polls.csv · sources 1, 2, 3, 4
Each month’s mean of the national polls since the April 2025 election, beside the consumer prices, the unemployment rate and the policy rate released in that month:
| Month | Polls | LPC | CPC | Lead (pts) | BQ | NDP | GPC | PPC | CPI released | Unemployment released | Policy rate at month end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026record | 13 | 46.9% | 29.8% | 17.1 | 6.2% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 6.5% | 2.5% |
| The record · Conservative mean, 29.8%: lowest of 18 months; September 31.3% next | |||||||||||
| September 2026next | 12 | 46.8% | 31.3% | 15.5 | 5.9% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 6.4% | 2.25% |
| August 2026 | 15 | 44.5% | 31.3% | 13.2 | 6.3% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 6.4% | 2.25% |
| July 2026 | 13 | 43.1% | 33.7% | 9.4 | 6.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 6.5% | 2.25% |
| June 2026 | 14 | 43.5% | 33.0% | 10.5 | 6.2% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 2.25% |
| May 2026 | 14 | 43.9% | 32.9% | 11.0 | 6.1% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 6.9% | 2.25% |
| April 2026 | 15 | 44.9% | 33.4% | 11.5 | 6.1% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 6.7% | 2.25% |
| March 2026 | 17 | 46.0% | 32.7% | 13.3 | 5.6% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 6.7% | 2.25% |
| February 2026 | 17 | 43.5% | 34.9% | 8.6 | 6.7% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 6.5% | 2.25% |
| January 2026 | 17 | 40.7% | 36.1% | 4.6 | 7.3% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 6.8% | 2.25% |
18 rows in all, the first 10 printed; every row is in months.csv · sources 1, 2, 3, 4
II. The dates
In October 2026 Statistics Canada released the Consumer Price Index for September 2026, up 3.1% on a year earlier. The Labour Force Survey for September 2026, released on October 9, 2026, put the unemployment rate at 6.5%. The Bank of Canada’s policy rate rose to 2.5% on October 29, 2026, from 2.25%. The House of Commons sat on 15 days in October 2026, from October 5, 2026, its first sittings since September 25, 2026.
III. The weeks
Each entry is the mean of the national polls over the two weeks to a Sunday of October 2026, its move on the week before, and what was dated in that week.
The 3 national polls that ended in the week to October 25, 2026 leave the fourteen-day mean at 47.0% Liberal, 30.9% Conservative and 11.2% NDP. The largest move from the week before, 0.3 points in the Conservative mean, is inside the pollsters’ typical stated error of ±2.7 points. Statistics Canada released the Consumer Price Index for September 2026 on October 19, 2026, prices 3.1% over twelve months. Hansard lists 5 sitting days of the House in the week.
The 4 national polls that ended in the week to October 18, 2026 leave the fourteen-day mean at 47.2% Liberal, 30.6% Conservative and 11.4% NDP. The largest move from the week before, 2.4 points in the Conservative mean, is inside the pollsters’ typical stated error of ±2.7 points. Hansard lists no sitting of the House in the week.
The 2 national polls that ended in the week to October 11, 2026 leave the fourteen-day mean at 47.2% Liberal, 28.2% Conservative and 13.5% NDP. The largest move from the week before, 0.8 points in the NDP mean, is inside the pollsters’ typical stated error of ±2.7 points. Statistics Canada released the Labour Force Survey for September 2026 on October 9, 2026, unemployment at 6.5%. Hansard lists 5 sitting days of the House in the week.
The 3 national polls that ended in the week to October 4, 2026 leave the fourteen-day mean at 47.4% Liberal, 28.9% Conservative and 12.7% NDP. The largest move from the week before, 1.7 points in the Conservative mean, is inside the pollsters’ typical stated error of ±2.7 points. Hansard lists no sitting of the House in the week.
What this does not say, and how it was made. The chapter's monthly mean is the lowest of the months since the election. Two series may be shown moving together, each dated and both figures printed. The page never states a cause as fact: each reading below is labelled a reading, with what would confirm or refute it. A move inside the pollsters’ stated error is said to be inside it. A census figure describes a riding, never its voters. A chapter of the poll watch closes on its month: its words are not rewritten, and its figures are re-exported on every sync so a poll added to the month later moves them.