Poll watch · November 2024 to April 2025 · figures as of
The Week the Lead Changed
In the week to March 16, 2025, the trailing mean of the national polls put the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives for the first time in the series, 38.4% to 36.3%, a lead of 2.1 points. Every week before it had the Conservatives ahead.
What did the national polls do between December 2024 and the April 2025 election?
- The lead changes2.1 ptsthe week to March 16, 2025, 38.4 to 36.3; every week before it the other way
- People's Party mean1.6%lowest of 8 months; September 2.2% next
- NDP mean, largest monthly move−4.8 ptsfrom February to March 2025; the next largest 2.4
- Conservative mean, largest weekly move−3.5 ptsin the week to February 2, 2025; the next largest 2.3
- Conservative mean, largest monthly move−3.4 ptsfrom January to February 2025; the next largest 2.5
The trailing Liberal mean of the national polls first led the Conservative mean in the week to March 16, 2025, 38.4% to 36.3%. Each of the 19 weeks before it, from November 3, 2024, had the Conservative mean ahead. The trailing Liberal mean rose 4.8 points in the week to March 16, 2025, from 33.6% to 38.4%, the largest weekly move of the 26 in the window. Between February and March 2025 the Liberal monthly mean rose 9.4 points, 31.6% to 41.0%, the largest monthly move of the eight months from September 2024. The Conservative mean in March 2025 was 37.2%, the lowest of the eight months from September 2024 and April’s 38.5% the next. In the monthly mean the Conservatives led by 22.7 points in December 2024 and the Liberals by 4.8 points in April 2025. The vote of April 28, 2025 put the Liberals at 43.8%, the Conservatives at 41.3% and the NDP at 6.3%. Against the April 2025 means, the Conservative vote ran 2.8 points over and the NDP’s 1.9 points under.
A move inside the pollsters’ stated error is said to be inside it; nothing here states a cause.
I. The series
The lead changes: 2.1 pts
The national polls, a 14-day trailing mean taken weekly, every pollster, November 3, 2024 to April 27, 2025; each poll a dot; the wash round a line is ±2.6 points, the pollsters’ typical stated error for one poll. Under the lines, the lead alone: a bar above the zero line is a Liberal lead, below it a Conservative one; the band round zero is the same ±2.6.
The Liberal mean first stood three points over December’s in the week to January 26, 2025 and five over in the week to February 2, 2025. It stood ten over in the week to February 23, 2025 and fifteen over in the week to March 16, 2025, the week it first led the Conservative mean. The trailing mean is the plain mean of the polls in the fourteen days to each Sunday. The 272 polls in the window stated a typical error of ±2.6 points for one poll, the line a weekly move must cross to be read as a move. The Liberal mean stood higher than the week before in each of the 14 weeks to April 13, 2025, from 20.6% to 44.0%.
| Week to | Polls | LPC | CPC | BQ | NDP | GPC | PPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | 11 | 22.5% | 44.6% | 8.0% | 17.1% | 4.0% | 2.7% |
| 2025-01-26 | 9 | 24.4% | 43.2% | 8.0% | 16.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| 2025-02-02 | 7 | 27.8% | 39.7% | 7.8% | 16.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| 2025-02-09 | 7 | 30.0% | 38.6% | 7.6% | 15.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| 2025-02-16 | 10 | 30.3% | 40.6% | 7.6% | 14.7% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| 2025-02-23 | 10 | 31.3% | 40.3% | 7.5% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| 2025-03-02 | 12 | 32.6% | 39.0% | 6.7% | 13.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% |
| 2025-03-09 | 11 | 33.6% | 38.6% | 6.3% | 13.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| 2025-03-16 | 17 | 38.4% | 36.3% | 6.2% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% |
| 2025-03-23 | 28 | 39.3% | 36.3% | 6.2% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
The table holds the ten weeks round the change of lead. Every row of the weekly, monthly and poll series is in the CSV files under it and the chart.
II. The dates
- · globalnews.ca · The President-elect of the United States · In a post on Truth Social, the President-elect thanked the Prime Minister for a dinner at Mar-a-Lago, calling him “Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada”.
- · theglobeandmail.com · The Prime Minister · At Rideau Cottage the Prime Minister said he intended to resign as party leader and as Prime Minister after the party selected its next leader, and that the House would be prorogued until March 24.
- · rollcall.com · The President-elect of the United States · At a news conference at Mar-a-Lago, asked whether he would use military force to make Canada part of the United States, the President-elect answered “No, economic force”, and said the border was an artificially drawn line.
- · foxnews.com · The President-elect of the United States · In two posts on Truth Social the President-elect shared maps showing Canada and the United States as one country, one captioned “Oh Canada!”.
- · whitehouse.gov · The President of the United States · On the day of his inauguration the President signed the America First Trade Policy memorandum, directing reviews of the United States’ trade deficits and of the USMCA.
- · rollcall.com · The President of the United States · In an interview broadcast before the Super Bowl, asked whether his talk of Canada becoming the 51st state was “a real thing”, the President answered “Yeah it is”.
- · govinfo.gov · U.S. duty on Canadian goods · 25% · The United States puts a 25% duty on goods from Canada and 10% on Canadian energy, under its emergency economic powers law.
- · gazette.gc.ca · Canada’s surtax on U.S. goods · 25% · Canada puts a 25% surtax on a list of goods that originate in the United States.
- · whitehouse.gov · CUSMA goods taken out of the U.S. duty · The United States takes Canadian goods that qualify under CUSMA out of its 25% duty; the duty stays on the rest.
- · liberal.ca · The Liberal Party of Canada · The Liberal Party announced Mark Carney as its leader, elected on the first ballot with 131,674 votes and 29,457 of the 34,300 points, 151,899 members voting.
- · federalregister.gov · U.S. steel and aluminum tariff, Canada included · 25% · The United States ends Canada’s exemption from its 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum.
- · canada.ca · Canada’s surtax on U.S. steel and aluminum · 25% · Canada puts a 25% surtax on listed steel and aluminum products imported from the United States.
- · ourcommons.ca · The Prime Minister · Mark Carney was sworn in as Prime Minister.
- · elections.ca · The Governor General · Parliament was dissolved and the writs issued for a general election on April 28, 2025.
- · whitehouse.gov · U.S. tariff on imported automobiles · 25% · The United States puts a 25% tariff on imported passenger vehicles and light trucks, Canada’s included, the U.S. content of a vehicle qualifying under CUSMA excepted.
- · laws-lois.justice.gc.ca · Canada’s surtax on U.S. motor vehicles · 25% · Canada puts a 25% surtax on vehicles imported from the United States that do not comply with CUSMA, and on the non-Canadian and non-Mexican content of those that do.
The first week three points over December, to January 26, 2025, closes after both the Prime Minister’s statement that he intended to resign and the inauguration. One national series does not separate those dates. The first week five points over, to February 2, 2025, closes before any tariff order was in force. The first week fifteen over, to March 16, 2025, is the week after the Liberal leadership result and the week the steel and aluminum tariff took effect.
III. Regions
The regional sub-tables hold 39 polls, 21 of them Ontario’s and most of those one tracker in February 2025 (regional.csv). Between Léger’s Quebec polls of November 11, 2024 and April 25, 2025 the Liberal share went from 22% to 42%, the Bloc’s from 35% to 26%, the Conservative from 24% to 24%.
IV. Three readings
- The Prime Minister’s statement that he intended to resign, in January 2025 The first week three points over December, to January 26, 2025, follows it. Would confirm hypothetical-leader polls of that winter, not read here, with a named successor’s Liberal share above the headline share before the inauguration. Would refute no gap between the two in December 2024 and January 2025.
- The United States’ statements and measures, from January 2025 The same first week follows the President-elect’s statements of early January and the inauguration. Would confirm a province-by-province series moving in the same weeks everywhere, and the pollsters’ most-important-issue question, not in this record, rising on the United States then. Would refute a regional series moving before the January statements. The regional rows before January 2025 are in regional.csv.
- The change of Liberal leader, in March 2025 The largest weekly step and the first Liberal lead both fall in the week after the leadership result. Would confirm leader favourability, a series the record does not carry, rising for the Liberal leader that week and not before. Would refute that the Liberal mean had gained 12.3 of its 22 points over December by the week to March 9, 2025, the week of the result.
All three dates fall inside the 14 weeks to April 13, 2025 in which the Liberal mean stood higher each week than the week before, on one national series. These figures cannot separate the readings. That is the finding.
What this does not say, and how it was made. The first week of the trailing mean with the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives, every week before it the other way: the lead changing hands ranks with the records. Two series may be shown moving together, each dated and both figures printed. The page never states a cause as fact: each reading below is labelled a reading, with what would confirm or refute it. A move inside the pollsters’ stated error is said to be inside it. A census figure describes a riding, never its voters. A chapter of the poll watch closes on its month: its words are not rewritten, and its figures are re-exported on every sync so a poll added to the month later moves them.