The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Ajax
Federal riding · ON · No. 35001 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Jennifer McKelvie Liberal
- 2025 result
- Liberal hold by 11,317 votes
- Turnout
- 67.3% of 98,246 electors
- Population
- 126,670 2021 census
- Area
- 71 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Boundaries unchanged in 2023Covers the same ground as its predecessor · one of 59 of 343 by area
- Population, largest first126,670 people, 2021 census · 16th of 343 in Canada
- Area, smallest first71 km² · 100th of 343 in Canada
In brief
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Jennifer McKelvie
- Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Housing and Infrastructure
- Member: Natural Resources
- Member: Science and Research
IDid this riding change?
Essentially no. Today's Ajax covers almost exactly the same ground as the Ajax riding it replaced.
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Liberal hold
Elected
Jennifer McKelvie
Liberal
36,975
56.3% of valid votes
Margin
11,317
votes · +17.2 pts
Runner-up
Greg Brady
Conservative
25,658
39.1% of valid votes
Liberal 56.3% · Conservative 39.1% · New Democratic 2.7% · Other 1.0%
Turnout67.3% of 98,246 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer McKelvie | Liberal | 36,975 | 56.3% | 56.2% | +0.1 |
| Greg Brady | Conservative | 25,658 | 39.1% | 26.3% | +12.8 |
| Kyle Forster | New Democratic | 1,762 | 2.7% | 13.9% | −11.2 |
| Faisal Ali | Other | 643 | 1.0% | — | +1.0 |
1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote
| Leigh Paulseth | Green | 612 | 0.9% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
8.6 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
1,762 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 11,317-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
24 of 201
1 poll ended in an exact tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 5,659 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 8.6% of the 65,650 valid votes, 8.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Liberal36,975
Conservative25,658
Still Liberal by 11,317 votes. Actual margin: 11,317.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 56.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Liberal54.0%59.3%+5.3
Conservative40.6%37.1%−3.5
New Democratic3.1%2.1%−1.0
Other1.1%0.8%−0.3
Green1.1%0.7%−0.4
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $119,000 — about 1.4 times the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest21st highest of 343
- Median age is 38.4 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest76th lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 36.1% — about 1.3 times the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest124th highest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 41.8% — about 2.4 times the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest50th highest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 83.5% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest29th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.1% — about 69 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest112th lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
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The card
No. 35001ON · 2025
Ajax
Jennifer McKelvie
- Result
- Liberal hold by 11,317
- Turnout
- 67.3%
- Population
- 126,670
- Area
- 71 km²
Boundaries unchanged in 2023Population, largest firstArea, smallest first
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.