The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35001Ontario

Ajax

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Ajax
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Ajax is a federal riding in Ontario. Jennifer McKelvie (Liberal) has represented Ajax since the 2025 election. Jennifer McKelvie (Liberal) held Ajax for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 11,317 votes (17.2 points), with 56.3% of the vote. Greg Brady (Conservative) was second with 39.1%, on a turnout of 67.3% of 98,246 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Ajax on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Ajax

Jennifer McKelvie's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Jennifer McKelvie

Member of Parliament for Ajax

Liberal

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Housing and Infrastructure
Natural Resources committee
Science and Research committee

102 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Housing.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Ajax, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 65,650 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Jennifer McKelvie	Liberal	36,975	56.3%
Greg Brady	Conservative	25,658	39.1%
Kyle Forster	New Democratic	1,762	2.7%
Faisal Ali	Centrist	643	1.0%
Other (1)		612	0.9%

Jennifer McKelvie (Liberal) won Ajax on April 28, 2025 with 36,975 votes, 56.3% of the 65,650 valid votes. Greg Brady (Conservative) was second with 25,658 (39.1%), 11,317 votes and 17.2 points behind.

Of the 65,650 valid votes, Jennifer McKelvie (Liberal) took 56.3%, Greg Brady (Conservative) 39.1%, Kyle Forster (New Democratic) 2.7% and Faisal Ali (Centrist) 1.0%; one other candidate took 0.9%. Turnout was 67.3% of 98,246 electors: 66,134 ballots cast, 65,650 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 0.1 (56.2% to 56.3%), the Conservatives up 12.8 (26.3% to 39.1%) and the New Democrats down 11.2 (13.9% to 2.7%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Liberal

The party first in Ajax at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal49.8%by 16.1 points over the Conservatives
2006Liberal49.4%by 16.7 points over the Conservatives
2008Liberal44.5%by 6.6 points over the Conservatives
2011changed handsConservative44.1%by 5.7 points over the Liberals
2015changed handsLiberal55.9%by 21.5 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal57.7%by 31.7 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal56.2%by 29.9 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal56.3%by 17.2 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	49.8%	Conservative	16.1	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	49.4%	Conservative	16.7	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	44.5%	Conservative	6.6	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	44.1%	Liberal	5.7	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	55.9%	Conservative	21.5	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	57.7%	Conservative	31.7	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	56.2%	Conservative	29.9	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	56.3%	Conservative	17.2	official result

The Liberals were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Conservatives were first in 2011. In 2025 the Liberals took 56.3% of the vote here, 6.0 points above their average of 50.3% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (49.8%), 2006 (49.4%), 2008 (44.5%), 2015 (55.9%), 2019 (57.7%), 2021 (56.2%) and 2025 (56.3%) and the Conservatives in 2011 (44.1%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Mark Holland, by 15,042 votes (30.2 pts)
2019 Liberal · Mark Holland, by 19,334 votes (31.7 pts)
2015 Liberal · Mark Holland, by 12,084 votes (21.5 pts)

In the old Ajax on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Ajax lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Ajax is

Population: 126,6702021 census
Area: 71km²
Density: 1,789people per km²
Electors: 98,246on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

Boundaries unchanged in 2023
Covers the same ground as its predecessor, and the same electors · one of 54 of 343 by area and electors

Median total household income is $119,000 — about 1.4 times the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest21st highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 83.5% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest29th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 41.8% — about 2.4 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest50th highest of 343
Median age is 38.4 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest76th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.1% — about 69 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest112th lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 36.1% — about 1.3 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest124th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Essentially no. Today's Ajax covers almost exactly the same ground as the Ajax riding it replaced, and 100% of its 2025 electors lived in it.

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Jennifer McKelvie	Liberal	36,975	56.3%	56.2%	+0.1
Greg Brady	Conservative	25,658	39.1%	26.3%	+12.8
Kyle Forster	New Democratic	1,762	2.7%	13.9%	−11.2
Faisal Ali	Other	643	1.0%	—	+1.0

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Leigh Paulseth

Green

612

0.9%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,762 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 11,317-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

24 of 201

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (176) · ■ won by another party (24) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 5,659 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 8.6% of the 65,650 valid votes, 8.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0011,318

Liberal36,975

Conservative25,658

Still Liberal by 11,317 votes. Actual margin: 11,317.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 56.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 54.0%, the Conservatives 40.6%, the New Democrats 3.1%, the others 1.1% and the Greens 1.1%; in advance and special ballots, 59.3%, 37.1%, 2.1%, 0.8% and 0.7%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Ajax, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	54.0%	59.3%	+5.3
Conservative	40.6%	37.1%	−3.5
New Democratic	3.1%	2.1%	−1.0
Other	1.1%	0.8%	−0.3
Green	1.1%	0.7%	−0.4

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Ajax and its 2 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Ajax — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/ajax/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.