The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35116Ontario

Whitby

Whitby is a federal riding in Ontario. Ryan Turnbull (Liberal, first elected to the House in 2019) represents Whitby. Ryan Turnbull (Liberal) held Whitby for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 6,004 votes (8.9 points), with 52.7% of the vote. Steve Yamada (Conservative) was second with 43.8%, on a turnout of 71.9% of 94,712 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Whitby on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Whitby

Ryan Turnbull's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Ryan Turnbull

Member of Parliament for Whitby

Liberal

MP since 2019-10-21 · 3 terms

Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Finance and National Revenue and to the Secretary of State (Canada Revenue Agency and Financial Institutions)
Finance committee
Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure

359 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Finance.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Whitby, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 67,594 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Ryan Turnbull	Liberal	35,624	52.7%
Steve Yamada	Conservative	29,620	43.8%
Kevin Goswell	New Democratic	1,638	2.4%
Others (2)		712	1.1%

Ryan Turnbull (Liberal) won Whitby on April 28, 2025 with 35,624 votes, 52.7% of the 67,594 valid votes. Steve Yamada (Conservative) was second with 29,620 (43.8%), 6,004 votes and 8.9 points behind.

Of the 67,594 valid votes, Ryan Turnbull (Liberal) took 52.7%, Steve Yamada (Conservative) 43.8% and Kevin Goswell (New Democratic) 2.4%; the 2 other candidates took 1.1% together. Turnout was 71.9% of 94,712 electors: 68,051 ballots cast, 67,594 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 7.9 (44.8% to 52.7%), the Conservatives up 9.5 (34.3% to 43.8%) and the New Democrats down 11.9 (14.3% to 2.4%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Whitby at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal45.0%by 9.0 points over the Conservatives
2006changed handsConservative43.9%by 5.1 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative51.0%by 25.3 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative58.4%by 36.1 points over the New Democrats
2015changed handsLiberal45.0%by 2.9 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal43.7%by 8.2 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal44.8%by 10.6 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal52.7%by 8.9 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	45.0%	Conservative	9.0	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	43.9%	Liberal	5.1	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	51.0%	Liberal	25.3	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	58.4%	New Democratic	36.1	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	45.0%	Conservative	2.9	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	43.7%	Conservative	8.2	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	44.8%	Conservative	10.6	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	52.7%	Conservative	8.9	official result

The Liberals were first at five of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Conservatives at three; it changed hands twice. In 2025 the Liberals took 52.7% of the vote here, 16.0 points above their average of 36.7% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021. It has gone with the party that formed the government at all eleven general elections from 1993 to 2025.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (45.0%), 2015 (45.0%), 2019 (43.7%), 2021 (44.8%) and 2025 (52.7%) and the Conservatives in 2006 (43.9%), 2008 (51.0%) and 2011 (58.4%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Ryan Turnbull, by 5,104 votes (8.2 pts)
2019 Liberal · Ryan Turnbull, by 5,618 votes (8.2 pts)
2015 Liberal · Celina Caesar-Chavannes, by 1,849 votes (2.9 pts)

In the old Whitby on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Whitby lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Whitby is

Population: 115,2502021 census
Area: 94km²
Density: 1,233people per km²
Electors: 94,712on the 2025 lists

Median total household income is $117,000 — about 1.4 times the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest25th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 79.9% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest64th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 30.2% — about 1.7 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest106th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 36.8% — about 1.3 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest120th highest of 343
Median age is 40.4 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest123rd lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.3% — about 81 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest141st lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Whitby, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Whitby, but it is only 60% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Whitby 100.0% of the area · 60% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Ryan Turnbull	Liberal	35,624	52.7%	44.8%	+7.9
Steve Yamada	Conservative	29,620	43.8%	34.3%	+9.5
Kevin Goswell	New Democratic	1,638	2.4%	14.3%	−11.9

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Andrew Di Lullo	Green	506	0.7%
Nouman Mian	Other	206	0.3%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,638 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 6,004-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

79 of 206

4 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (123) · ■ won by another party (79) · ▨ tied (4).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 3,003 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 4.4% of the 67,594 valid votes, 4.5 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 006,006

Liberal35,624

Conservative29,620

Still Liberal by 6,004 votes. Actual margin: 6,004.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 57.3% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 50.3%, the Conservatives 45.4%, the New Democrats 2.9% and the Greens 0.9%; in advance and special ballots, 55.9%, 41.7%, 1.7% and 0.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Whitby, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	50.3%	55.9%	+5.6
Conservative	45.4%	41.7%	−3.7
New Democratic	2.9%	1.7%	−1.2
Green	0.9%	0.5%	−0.4

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Whitby and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Whitby — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/whitby/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.