The Political Record · Federal electoral districts

Whitby

Federal riding · ON · No. 35116 · 2023 representation order
Fig. 1 — Whitby, 2023 boundaries.
Member
Ryan Turnbull Liberal
2025 result
Liberal hold by 6,004 votes
Turnout
71.9% of 94,712 electors
Population
115,250 2021 census
Area
94 km²
Figures as of
2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Turnout: 71.9% of 94,712 electors voted · 104th of 343 in Canada104th
    Turnout
    71.9% of 94,712 electors voted · 104th of 343 in Canada
  • Area, smallest first: 94 km² · 124th of 343 in Canada124th
    Area, smallest first
    94 km² · 124th of 343 in Canada
  • Population, largest first: 115,250 people, 2021 census · 124th of 343 in Canada124th
    Population, largest first
    115,250 people, 2021 census · 124th of 343 in Canada
In brief
  1. Ryan Turnbull held the seat for the Liberals by 6,004 votes (+8.9 points).
  2. The riding shrank in 2023: it keeps 60% of the old Whitby.
  3. Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 57.3% of votes were cast on the day.
  4. Median total household income is the 25th highest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Ryan Turnbull
Liberal · first elected 2019-10-21 · 3 terms
  • Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Finance and National Revenue and to the Secretary of State (Canada Revenue Agency and Financial Institutions)
  • Member: Finance
  • Member: Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
278 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on The Economy.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Whitby comes from the old Whitby, but it is only 60% of that riding. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's areaFormer riding
100.0%Whitby 60% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Liberal hold
Elected
Ryan Turnbull
Liberal
35,624
52.7% of valid votes
Margin
6,004
votes · +8.9 pts
Runner-up
Steve Yamada
Conservative
29,620
43.8% of valid votes
Liberal 52.7% · Conservative 43.8% · New Democratic 2.4%
Turnout71.9% of 94,712 electors
CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Ryan TurnbullLiberal35,62452.7%44.8%+7.9
Steve YamadaConservative29,62043.8%34.3%+9.5
Kevin GoswellNew Democratic1,6382.4%14.3%−11.9
2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
Andrew Di LulloGreen5060.7%
Nouman MianOther2060.3%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Swing needed to flip
4.5 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
1,638 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 6,004-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
79 of 206
4 polls ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (123) · ■ won by another party (79) · ▨ tied (4).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 3,003 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 4.4% of the 67,594 valid votes, 4.5 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Liberal35,624
Conservative29,620
Still Liberal by 6,004 votes. Actual margin: 6,004.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 57.3% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Liberal50.3%55.9%+5.6
Conservative45.4%41.7%−3.7
New Democratic2.9%1.7%−1.2
Green0.9%0.5%−0.4
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhat kind of place this is

2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.

VIWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Whitby and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

The card

No. 35116ON · 2025
Whitby
Ryan Turnbull
Result
Liberal hold by 6,004
Turnout
71.9%
Population
115,250
Area
94 km²
Turnout: 71.9% of 94,712 electors voted · 104th of 343 in Canada104thTurnoutArea, smallest first: 94 km² · 124th of 343 in Canada124thArea, smallest firstPopulation, largest first: 115,250 people, 2021 census · 124th of 343 in Canada124thPopulation, largest first
One of 343The Political Record

A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.

Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.

Open a neighbour to collect the next one.