The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 11001Prince Edward Island

Cardigan

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Cardigan
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Cardigan is a federal riding in Prince Edward Island. Kent MacDonald (Liberal) has represented Cardigan since the 2025 election. Kent MacDonald (Liberal) held Cardigan for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 4,962 votes (19.6 points), with 57.0% of the vote. James Aylward (Conservative) was second with 37.4%, on a turnout of 79.0% of 32,251 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Cardigan on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Cardigan

Kent MacDonald's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Kent MacDonald

Member of Parliament for Cardigan

Liberal

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Agriculture and Agri-Food committee
Finance committee

46 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 1.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Cardigan, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 25,261 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Kent MacDonald	Liberal	14,404	57.0%
James Aylward	Conservative	9,442	37.4%
Lynne Thiele	New Democratic	505	2.0%
Wayne Phelan	Independent	404	1.6%
Maria Rodriguez	Green	326	1.3%
Other (1)		180	0.7%

Kent MacDonald (Liberal) won Cardigan on April 28, 2025 with 14,404 votes, 57.0% of the 25,261 valid votes. James Aylward (Conservative) was second with 9,442 (37.4%), 4,962 votes and 19.6 points behind.

Of the 25,261 valid votes, Kent MacDonald (Liberal) took 57.0%, James Aylward (Conservative) 37.4%, Lynne Thiele (New Democratic) 2.0%, Wayne Phelan (Independent) 1.6% and Maria Rodriguez (Green) 1.3%; one other candidate took 0.7%. Turnout was 79.0% of 32,251 electors: 25,494 ballots cast, 25,261 of them valid, for 6 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 6.9 (50.1% to 57.0%), the Conservatives up 6.8 (30.6% to 37.4%), the New Democrats down 7.7 (9.7% to 2.0%) and the Greens down 3.5 (4.8% to 1.3%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Liberal stronghold

The party first in Cardigan at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal53.4%by 20.1 points over the Conservatives
2006Liberal56.2%by 22.5 points over the Conservatives
2008Liberal52.8%by 23.2 points over the Conservatives
2011Liberal49.6%by 11.3 points over the Conservatives
2015Liberal65.0%by 48.8 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal49.3%by 20.3 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal50.1%by 19.5 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal57.0%by 19.6 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	53.4%	Conservative	20.1	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	56.2%	Conservative	22.5	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	52.8%	Conservative	23.2	carried, our estimate
2011	Liberal	49.6%	Conservative	11.3	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	65.0%	Conservative	48.8	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	49.3%	Conservative	20.3	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	50.1%	Conservative	19.5	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	57.0%	Conservative	19.6	official result

The Liberals were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 23.2 points over the next party. In 2025 the Liberals took 57.0% of the vote here, 3.2 points above their average of 53.8% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021. The Liberals have been first here at every general election since 1988, twelve in a row.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (53.4%), 2006 (56.2%), 2008 (52.8%), 2011 (49.6%), 2015 (65.0%), 2019 (49.3%), 2021 (50.1%) and 2025 (57.0%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Lawrence MacAulay, by 4,358 votes (19.7 pts)
2019 Liberal · Lawrence MacAulay, by 4,500 votes (20.3 pts)
2015 Liberal · Lawrence MacAulay, by 10,989 votes (48.8 pts)

In the old Cardigan on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Cardigan lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Cardigan is

Population: 39,2302021 census
Area: 4,089km²
Density: 9.6people per km²
Electors: 32,251on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

3rd-highest turnout in Canada
79.0% of 32,251 electors voted · 3rd of 343
7th-least populous in Canada
39,230 people, 2021 census · 7th of 343
Most candidates on the ballot in Prince Edward Island
6 candidates stood · 1st of 4 in Prince Edward Island · 61st of 343 in Canada

Share of households that own their home is 80.2% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest60th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 6.6% — about 38 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest75th lowest of 343
Median age is 43.6 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest106th highest of 343
Median total household income is $77,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest112th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.4% — a little lower than the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest152nd lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 27.5% — about the same as the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest168th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Cardigan, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Cardigan, but it is only 99% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Cardigan 100.0% of the area · 99% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Kent MacDonald	Liberal	14,404	57.0%	50.1%	+6.9
James Aylward	Conservative	9,442	37.4%	30.6%	+6.8
Lynne Thiele	New Democratic	505	2.0%	9.7%	−7.7
Wayne Phelan	Independent	404	1.6%	—	+1.6
Maria Rodriguez	Green	326	1.3%	4.8%	−3.5

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Adam Harding

People's

180

0.7%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

505 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 4,962-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

20 of 78

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (57) · ■ won by another party (20) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 2,482 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 9.8% of the 25,261 valid votes, 9.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 004,964

Liberal14,404

Conservative9,442

Still Liberal by 4,962 votes. Actual margin: 4,962.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 50.6% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 52.0%, the Conservatives 41.3% and the New Democrats 2.1%; in advance and special ballots, 62.2%, 33.3% and 1.8%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Cardigan, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	52.0%	62.2%	+10.2
Conservative	41.3%	33.3%	−8.0
New Democratic	2.1%	1.8%	−0.3

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Cardigan and its 3 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Cardigan — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/cardigan/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.