The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 12003Nova Scotia

Central Nova

Nova-Centre

Central Nova is a federal riding in Nova Scotia. Sean Fraser (Liberal, first elected to the House in 2015) represents Central Nova. Sean Fraser (Liberal) held Central Nova for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 4,613 votes (9.2 points), with 51.9% of the vote. Brycen Jenkins (Conservative) was second with 42.7%, on a turnout of 74.6% of 67,801 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Central Nova on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Central Nova

Sean Fraser's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Sean Fraser

Member of Parliament for Central Nova

Liberal

MP since 2015-10-19 · 4 terms

Attorney General of Canada
Minister of Justice
Minister responsible for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency

258 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Justice.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Central Nova, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 50,213 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Sean Fraser	Liberal	26,078	51.9%
Brycen Jenkins	Conservative	21,465	42.7%
Jesiah MacDonald	New Democratic	1,649	3.3%
Others (3)		1,021	2.0%

Sean Fraser (Liberal) won Central Nova on April 28, 2025 with 26,078 votes, 51.9% of the 50,213 valid votes. Brycen Jenkins (Conservative) was second with 21,465 (42.7%), 4,613 votes and 9.2 points behind.

Of the 50,213 valid votes, Sean Fraser (Liberal) took 51.9%, Brycen Jenkins (Conservative) 42.7% and Jesiah MacDonald (New Democratic) 3.3%; the 3 other candidates took 2.0% together. Turnout was 74.6% of 67,801 electors: 50,559 ballots cast, 50,213 of them valid, for 6 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 7.8 (44.1% to 51.9%), the Conservatives up 10.0 (32.7% to 42.7%) and the New Democrats down 12.8 (16.1% to 3.3%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Central Nova at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative37.9%by 6.1 points over the New Democrats
2006†changed handsNew Democratic37.3%by 0.8 points over the Conservatives
2008changed handsConservative36.6%by 6.3 points over the New Democrats
2011Conservative49.3%by 16.8 points over the New Democrats
2015changed handsLiberal56.2%by 32.8 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal45.2%by 17.1 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal44.1%by 11.4 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal51.9%by 9.2 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	37.9%	New Democratic	6.1	carried, our estimate
2006†	New Democratic	37.3%	Conservative	0.8	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	36.6%	New Democratic	6.3	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	49.3%	New Democratic	16.8	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	56.2%	Conservative	32.8	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	45.2%	Conservative	17.1	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	44.1%	Conservative	11.4	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	51.9%	Conservative	9.2	official result

The Liberals were first at four of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Conservatives at three and the NDP at one; it changed hands three times. In 2025 the Liberals took 51.9% of the vote here, 21.2 points above their average of 30.7% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (37.9%), 2008 (36.6%) and 2011 (49.3%), the NDP in 2006 (37.3%) and the Liberals in 2015 (56.2%), 2019 (45.2%), 2021 (44.1%) and 2025 (51.9%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2006 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Sean Fraser, by 5,622 votes (13.9 pts)
2019 Liberal · Sean Fraser, by 7,517 votes (16.9 pts)
2015 Liberal · Sean Fraser, by 14,491 votes (32.7 pts)

In the old Central Nova on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Central Nova lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Central Nova is

Population: 76,2152021 census
Area: 11,811km²
Density: 6.5people per km²
Electors: 67,801on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

2nd-highest turnout in Nova Scotia
74.6% of 67,801 electors voted · 2nd of 11 in Nova Scotia · 38th of 343 in Canada
2nd-most candidates on the ballot in Nova Scotia
6 candidates stood · 2nd of 11 in Nova Scotia · 61st of 343 in Canada
3rd-largest by area in Nova Scotia
11,811 km² · 3rd of 11 in Nova Scotia · 68th of 343 in Canada

Median age is 49.6 — about 1.2 times the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest28th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 3.6% — about 21 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest37th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 80.8% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest53rd highest of 343
Median total household income is $71,000 — about 85 percent of the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest66th lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 18.7% — about 66 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest76th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.4% — a little lower than the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest152nd lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 78% of the 2025 electors in today's Central Nova lived in the old Central Nova; by area, 3% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

78.3%Central Nova 97.0% of the area · 87% of it kept

21.7%Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook 3.0% of the area · 39% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Sean Fraser	Liberal	26,078	51.9%	44.1%	+7.8
Brycen Jenkins	Conservative	21,465	42.7%	32.7%	+10.0
Jesiah MacDonald	New Democratic	1,649	3.3%	16.1%	−12.8

3 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Gerald Romsa	Green	455	0.9%
Charlie MacEachern	People's	331	0.7%
Alexander MacKenzie	Independent	235	0.5%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,649 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 4,613-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

110 of 196

5 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (81) · ■ won by another party (110) · ▨ tied (5).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 2,307 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 4.6% of the 50,213 valid votes, 4.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 004,614

Liberal26,078

Conservative21,465

Still Liberal by 4,613 votes. Actual margin: 4,613.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 51.6% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots. On election day alone, the Conservatives led here — the seat was decided by ballots cast before the day.

On election day the Liberals took 45.8%, the Conservatives 47.7% and the New Democrats 3.9%; in advance and special ballots, 58.5%, 37.5% and 2.6%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Central Nova, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	45.8%	58.5%	+12.7
Conservative	47.7%	37.5%	−10.2
New Democratic	3.9%	2.6%	−1.3

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Central Nova and its 7 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Central Nova — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/central-nova/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.