The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35029Ontario

Etobicoke Centre

Etobicoke-Centre

Etobicoke Centre is a federal riding in Ontario. Yvan Baker (Liberal, first elected to the House in 2019) represents Etobicoke Centre. Yvan Baker (Liberal) held Etobicoke Centre for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 6,473 votes (9.6 points), with 53.6% of the vote. Ted Opitz (Conservative) was second with 44.0%, on a turnout of 68.9% of 98,795 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Etobicoke Centre on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Etobicoke Centre

Yvan Baker's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Yvan Baker

Member of Parliament for Etobicoke Centre

Liberal

MP since 2019-10-21 · 3 terms

Chair, Official Languages committee
Chair, Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
Liaison committee
Official Languages committee

35 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Ukrainian Heritage Month Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Etobicoke Centre, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 67,510 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Yvan Baker	Liberal	36,186	53.6%
Ted Opitz	Conservative	29,713	44.0%
Ji Won Jung	New Democratic	1,611	2.4%

Yvan Baker (Liberal) won Etobicoke Centre on April 28, 2025 with 36,186 votes, 53.6% of the 67,510 valid votes. Ted Opitz (Conservative) was second with 29,713 (44.0%), 6,473 votes and 9.6 points behind.

Of the 67,510 valid votes, Yvan Baker (Liberal) took 53.6%, Ted Opitz (Conservative) 44.0% and Ji Won Jung (New Democratic) 2.4%. Turnout was 68.9% of 98,795 electors: 68,066 ballots cast, 67,510 of them valid, for 3 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 5.9 (47.7% to 53.6%), the Conservatives up 10.2 (33.8% to 44.0%) and the New Democrats down 8.3 (10.7% to 2.4%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Liberal

The party first in Etobicoke Centre at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal56.5%by 27.6 points over the Conservatives
2006Liberal50.4%by 16.8 points over the Conservatives
2008Liberal48.2%by 11.3 points over the Conservatives
2011†changed handsConservative41.0%by 1.2 points over the Liberals
2015changed handsLiberal53.4%by 17.6 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal52.4%by 19.4 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal47.7%by 13.9 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal53.6%by 9.6 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	56.5%	Conservative	27.6	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	50.4%	Conservative	16.8	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	48.2%	Conservative	11.3	carried, our estimate
2011†	Conservative	41.0%	Liberal	1.2	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	53.4%	Conservative	17.6	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	52.4%	Conservative	19.4	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	47.7%	Conservative	13.9	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	53.6%	Conservative	9.6	official result

The Liberals were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Conservatives were first in 2011. In 2025 the Liberals took 53.6% of the vote here, 3.8 points above their average of 49.8% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (56.5%), 2006 (50.4%), 2008 (48.2%), 2015 (53.4%), 2019 (52.4%), 2021 (47.7%) and 2025 (53.6%) and the Conservatives in 2011 (41.0%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2011 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Yvan Baker, by 7,527 votes (13.1 pts)
2019 Liberal · Yvan Baker, by 10,996 votes (17.4 pts)
2015 Liberal · Borys Wrzesnewskyj, by 9,542 votes (15.5 pts)

In the old Etobicoke Centre on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Etobicoke Centre lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Etobicoke Centre is

Population: 125,6052021 census
Area: 40km²
Density: 3,148people per km²
Electors: 98,795on the 2025 lists

Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 49.0% — about 1.7 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest45th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 42.5% — about 2.5 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest48th highest of 343
Median total household income is $97,000 — about 1.2 times the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest79th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 63.4% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest101st lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.0% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest101st lowest of 343
Median age is 43.6 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest106th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 80% of the 2025 electors in today's Etobicoke Centre lived in the old Etobicoke Centre; by area, 14% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

80.3%Etobicoke Centre 85.6% of the area · 87% of it kept

14.4%Etobicoke—Lakeshore 10.8% of the area · 8% of it kept

5.3%Etobicoke North 3.5% of the area · 3% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Yvan Baker	Liberal	36,186	53.6%	47.7%	+5.9
Ted Opitz	Conservative	29,713	44.0%	33.8%	+10.2
Ji Won Jung	New Democratic	1,611	2.4%	10.7%	−8.3

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,611 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 6,473-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

74 of 165

3 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (88) · ■ won by another party (74) · ▨ tied (3).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 3,237 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 4.8% of the 67,510 valid votes, 4.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 006,474

Liberal36,186

Conservative29,713

Still Liberal by 6,473 votes. Actual margin: 6,473.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 58.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 50.4%, the Conservatives 46.7% and the New Democrats 2.9%; in advance and special ballots, 58.1%, 40.2% and 1.6%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Etobicoke Centre, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	50.4%	58.1%	+7.7
Conservative	46.7%	40.2%	−6.5
New Democratic	2.9%	1.6%	−1.3

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Etobicoke Centre and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Etobicoke Centre — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/etobicoke-centre/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.