The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35030Ontario

Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Etobicoke—Lakeshore is a federal riding in Ontario. James Maloney (Liberal, first elected to the House in 2015) represents Etobicoke—Lakeshore. James Maloney (Liberal) held Etobicoke—Lakeshore for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 12,164 votes (18.6 points), with 57.4% of the vote. Bernard Trottier (Conservative) was second with 38.8%, on a turnout of 69.9% of 93,945 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Etobicoke—Lakeshore on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Etobicoke—Lakeshore

James Maloney's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

James Maloney

Member of Parliament for Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Liberal

MP since 2015-10-19 · 4 terms

Caucus Chair
Justice and Human Rights committee
Medical Assistance in Dying committee
Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure

34 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Bail and Sentencing Reform Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Etobicoke—Lakeshore, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 65,338 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
James Maloney	Liberal	37,512	57.4%
Bernard Trottier	Conservative	25,348	38.8%
Cory Wagar	New Democratic	1,665	2.5%
Others (2)		813	1.2%

James Maloney (Liberal) won Etobicoke—Lakeshore on April 28, 2025 with 37,512 votes, 57.4% of the 65,338 valid votes. Bernard Trottier (Conservative) was second with 25,348 (38.8%), 12,164 votes and 18.6 points behind.

Of the 65,338 valid votes, James Maloney (Liberal) took 57.4%, Bernard Trottier (Conservative) 38.8% and Cory Wagar (New Democratic) 2.5%; the 2 other candidates took 1.2% together. Turnout was 69.9% of 93,945 electors: 65,707 ballots cast, 65,338 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 10.6 (46.8% to 57.4%), the Conservatives up 6.5 (32.3% to 38.8%) and the New Democrats down 10.9 (13.4% to 2.5%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Liberal

The party first in Etobicoke—Lakeshore at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal50.3%by 19.7 points over the Conservatives
2006Liberal43.7%by 8.6 points over the Conservatives
2008Liberal46.2%by 11.3 points over the Conservatives
2011changed handsConservative40.4%by 5.2 points over the Liberals
2015changed handsLiberal53.7%by 21.3 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal51.9%by 23.2 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal46.8%by 14.6 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal57.4%by 18.6 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	50.3%	Conservative	19.7	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	43.7%	Conservative	8.6	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	46.2%	Conservative	11.3	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	40.4%	Liberal	5.2	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	53.7%	Conservative	21.3	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	51.9%	Conservative	23.2	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	46.8%	Conservative	14.6	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	57.4%	Conservative	18.6	official result

The Liberals were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Conservatives were first in 2011. In 2025 the Liberals took 57.4% of the vote here, 10.6 points above their average of 46.8% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (50.3%), 2006 (43.7%), 2008 (46.2%), 2015 (53.7%), 2019 (51.9%), 2021 (46.8%) and 2025 (57.4%) and the Conservatives in 2011 (40.4%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · James Maloney, by 9,898 votes (15.5 pts)
2019 Liberal · James Maloney, by 16,109 votes (23.2 pts)
2015 Liberal · James Maloney, by 13,706 votes (21.3 pts)

In the old Etobicoke—Lakeshore on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Etobicoke—Lakeshore lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Etobicoke—Lakeshore is

Population: 120,9552021 census
Area: 50km²
Density: 2,444people per km²
Electors: 93,945on the 2025 lists

Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 51.4% — about 1.8 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest42nd highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 37.2% — about 2.2 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest69th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 59.3% — about 83 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest83rd lowest of 343
Median total household income is $91,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest108th highest of 343
Median age is 41.2 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest161st lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.5% — a little lower than the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest166th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 99% of the 2025 electors in today's Etobicoke—Lakeshore lived in the old Etobicoke—Lakeshore; by area, 1% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

99.2%Etobicoke—Lakeshore 99.2% of the area · 92% of it kept

0.8%Etobicoke Centre 0.8% of the area · 1% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
James Maloney	Liberal	37,512	57.4%	46.8%	+10.6
Bernard Trottier	Conservative	25,348	38.8%	32.3%	+6.5
Cory Wagar	New Democratic	1,665	2.5%	13.4%	−10.9

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Thomas Fanjoy	People's	616	0.9%
Janice Murray	Other	197	0.3%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,665 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 12,164-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

53 of 198

2 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (143) · ■ won by another party (53) · ▨ tied (2).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 6,083 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 9.3% of the 65,338 valid votes, 9.3 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0012,166

Liberal37,512

Conservative25,348

Still Liberal by 12,164 votes. Actual margin: 12,164.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 59.8% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 52.8%, the Conservatives 42.7%, the New Democrats 2.9% and the People's Party 1.2%; in advance and special ballots, 64.3%, 33.0%, 2.0% and 0.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Etobicoke—Lakeshore, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	52.8%	64.3%	+11.5
Conservative	42.7%	33.0%	−9.7
New Democratic	2.9%	2.0%	−0.9
People's Party	1.2%	0.5%	−0.7

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Etobicoke—Lakeshore and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Etobicoke—Lakeshore — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/etobicoke-lakeshore/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.