The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35041Ontario

Humber River—Black Creek

Humber River—Black Creek is a federal riding in Ontario. Judy A. Sgro (Liberal, first elected to the House in 1999) represents Humber River—Black Creek. Judy Sgro (Liberal) held Humber River—Black Creek for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 7,612 votes (19.8 points), with 55.6% of the vote. Bijay Paudel (Conservative) was second with 35.8%, on a turnout of 55.1% of 70,557 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Humber River—Black Creek on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Humber River—Black Creek

Judy A. Sgro's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Judy A. Sgro

Member of Parliament for Humber River—Black Creek

Liberal

MP since 1999-11-15 · 10 terms

Chair, International Trade committee
Chair, Liaison committee
Chair, Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
Chair, Subcommittee on Committee Budgets

90 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Building Canada Strong Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Humber River—Black Creek, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 38,398 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Judy Sgro	Liberal	21,357	55.6%
Bijay Paudel	Conservative	13,745	35.8%
Matias de Dovitiis	New Democratic	2,449	6.4%
Marek Jasinski	People's Party	621	1.6%
Other (1)		226	0.6%

Judy Sgro (Liberal) won Humber River—Black Creek on April 28, 2025 with 21,357 votes, 55.6% of the 38,398 valid votes. Bijay Paudel (Conservative) was second with 13,745 (35.8%), 7,612 votes and 19.8 points behind.

Of the 38,398 valid votes, Judy Sgro (Liberal) took 55.6%, Bijay Paudel (Conservative) 35.8%, Matias de Dovitiis (New Democratic) 6.4% and Marek Jasinski (People's Party) 1.6%; one other candidate took 0.6%. Turnout was 55.1% of 70,557 electors: 38,905 ballots cast, 38,398 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are down 4.0 (59.6% to 55.6%), the Conservatives up 18.7 (17.1% to 35.8%), the New Democrats down 9.7 (16.1% to 6.4%) and the People's Party down 2.2 (3.8% to 1.6%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Liberal stronghold

The party first in Humber River—Black Creek at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal64.7%by 49.4 points over the New Democrats
2006Liberal63.8%by 45.2 points over the Conservatives
2008Liberal59.4%by 40.7 points over the New Democrats
2011Liberal47.0%by 19.2 points over the New Democrats
2015Liberal66.9%by 46.7 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal61.1%by 42.1 points over the New Democrats
2021Liberal59.6%by 42.5 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal55.6%by 19.8 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	64.7%	New Democratic	49.4	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	63.8%	Conservative	45.2	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	59.4%	New Democratic	40.7	carried, our estimate
2011	Liberal	47.0%	New Democratic	19.2	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	66.9%	Conservative	46.7	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	61.1%	New Democratic	42.1	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	59.6%	Conservative	42.5	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	55.6%	Conservative	19.8	official result

The Liberals were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 38.2 points over the next party. In 2025 the Liberals took 55.6% of the vote here, 4.8 points below their average of 60.4% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021. The Liberals have been first here at every general election since 1979, fifteen in a row.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (64.7%), 2006 (63.8%), 2008 (59.4%), 2011 (47.0%), 2015 (66.9%), 2019 (61.1%), 2021 (59.6%) and 2025 (55.6%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Judy Sgro, by 13,934 votes (43.3 pts)
2019 Liberal · Judy Sgro, by 15,989 votes (42.1 pts)
2015 Liberal · Judy Sgro, by 16,767 votes (46.7 pts)

In the old Humber River—Black Creek on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Humber River—Black Creek lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Humber River—Black Creek is

Population: 111,5952021 census
Area: 32km²
Density: 3,466people per km²
Electors: 70,557on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

8th-lowest turnout in Canada
55.1% of 70,557 electors voted · 8th of 343
Boundaries unchanged in 2023
Covers the same ground as its predecessor, and the same electors · one of 54 of 343 by area and electors

Share who are immigrants is 56.4% — about 3.3 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest14th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.5% — about 31 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest20th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 48.0% — about 67 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest41st lowest of 343
Median age is 38.0 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest66th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $73,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest81st lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 22.4% — about 79 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest122nd lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Essentially no. Today's Humber River—Black Creek covers almost exactly the same ground as the Humber River—Black Creek riding it replaced, and 100% of its 2025 electors lived in it.

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Judy Sgro	Liberal	21,357	55.6%	59.6%	−4.0
Bijay Paudel	Conservative	13,745	35.8%	17.1%	+18.7
Matias de Dovitiis	New Democratic	2,449	6.4%	16.1%	−9.7
Marek Jasinski	People's	621	1.6%	3.8%	−2.2

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Jeanne McGuire

Other

226

0.6%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,449 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 7,612-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

24 of 154

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (129) · ■ won by another party (24) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 3,807 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 9.9% of the 38,398 valid votes, 9.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 007,614

Liberal21,357

Conservative13,745

Still Liberal by 7,612 votes. Actual margin: 7,612.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 69.1% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 55.0%, the Conservatives 36.2%, the New Democrats 6.4% and the People's Party 1.7%; in advance and special ballots, 56.9%, 34.9%, 6.4% and 1.3%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Humber River—Black Creek, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	55.0%	56.9%	+1.9
Conservative	36.2%	34.9%	−1.3
New Democratic	6.4%	6.4%	+0.0
People's Party	1.7%	1.3%	−0.4

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Humber River—Black Creek and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Humber River—Black Creek — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/humber-river-black-creek/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.