The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Humber River—Black Creek
Federal riding · ON · No. 35041 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Judy A. Sgro Liberal
- 2025 result
- Liberal hold by 7,612 votes
- Turnout
- 55.1% of 70,557 electors
- Population
- 111,595 2021 census
- Area
- 32 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Lowest turnout in Canada55.1% of 70,557 electors voted · 8th of 343
- Boundaries unchanged in 2023Covers the same ground as its predecessor · one of 59 of 343 by area
- Area, smallest first32 km² · 36th of 343 in Canada
In brief
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Judy A. Sgro
- Chair: International Trade
- Chair: Liaison
- Chair: Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
- Chair: Subcommittee on Committee Budgets
IDid this riding change?
Essentially no. Today's Humber River—Black Creek covers almost exactly the same ground as the Humber River—Black Creek riding it replaced.
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Liberal hold
Elected
Judy Sgro
Liberal
21,357
55.6% of valid votes
Margin
7,612
votes · +19.8 pts
Runner-up
Bijay Paudel
Conservative
13,745
35.8% of valid votes
Liberal 55.6% · Conservative 35.8% · New Democratic 6.4% · People's 1.6%
Turnout55.1% of 70,557 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Judy Sgro | Liberal | 21,357 | 55.6% | 59.6% | −4.0 |
| Bijay Paudel | Conservative | 13,745 | 35.8% | 17.1% | +18.7 |
| Matias de Dovitiis | New Democratic | 2,449 | 6.4% | 16.1% | −9.7 |
| Marek Jasinski | People's | 621 | 1.6% | 3.8% | −2.2 |
1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote
| Jeanne McGuire | Other | 226 | 0.6% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
9.9 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
2,449 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 7,612-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
24 of 154
1 poll ended in an exact tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 3,807 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 9.9% of the 38,398 valid votes, 9.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Liberal21,357
Conservative13,745
Still Liberal by 7,612 votes. Actual margin: 7,612.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 69.1% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Liberal55.0%56.9%+1.9
Conservative36.2%34.9%−1.3
New Democratic6.4%6.4%+0.0
People's1.7%1.3%−0.4
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $73,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest81st lowest of 343
- Median age is 38.0 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest66th lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 22.4% — about 79 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest122nd lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 56.4% — about 3.3 times the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest14th highest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 48.0% — about 67 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest41st lowest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.5% — about 31 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest20th lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
The card
No. 35041ON · 2025
Humber River—Black Creek
Judy A. Sgro
- Result
- Liberal hold by 7,612
- Turnout
- 55.1%
- Population
- 111,595
- Area
- 32 km²
Lowest turnout in CanadaBoundaries unchanged in 2023Area, smallest first
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.