The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 48027Alberta

Lakeland

Lakeland is a federal riding in Alberta. Shannon Stubbs (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2015) represents Lakeland. Shannon Stubbs (Conservative) held Lakeland for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 38,940 votes (68.8 points), with 81.0% of the vote. Barry Milaney (Liberal) was second with 12.2%, on a turnout of 69.6% of 81,581 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Lakeland on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Lakeland

Shannon Stubbs's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Shannon Stubbs

Member of Parliament for Lakeland

Conservative

MP since 2015-10-19 · 4 terms

Exercise of Powers Under the Building Canada Act committee
Natural Resources committee
Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
Vice-Chair, Natural Resources committee

114 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Main Estimates and Supplementary Estimates (A), 2025-26.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Lakeland, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 56,593 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Shannon Stubbs	Conservative	45,826	81.0%
Barry Milaney	Liberal	6,886	12.2%
Des Bissonnette	New Democratic	2,153	3.8%
Michael Manchen	People's Party	982	1.7%
Others (2)		746	1.3%

Shannon Stubbs (Conservative) won Lakeland on April 28, 2025 with 45,826 votes, 81.0% of the 56,593 valid votes. Barry Milaney (Liberal) was second with 6,886 (12.2%), 38,940 votes and 68.8 points behind.

Of the 56,593 valid votes, Shannon Stubbs (Conservative) took 81.0%, Barry Milaney (Liberal) 12.2%, Des Bissonnette (New Democratic) 3.8% and Michael Manchen (People's Party) 1.7%; the 2 other candidates took 1.3% together. Turnout was 69.6% of 81,581 electors: 56,809 ballots cast, 56,593 of them valid, for 6 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 11.9 (69.1% to 81.0%), the Liberals up 7.3 (4.9% to 12.2%), the New Democrats down 6.7 (10.5% to 3.8%) and the People's Party down 9.3 (11.0% to 1.7%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Conservative stronghold

The party first in Lakeland at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative69.5%by 53.6 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative70.9%by 59.8 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative74.3%by 64.2 points over the New Democrats
2011Conservative78.1%by 66.3 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative72.8%by 59.1 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative83.9%by 77.4 points over the New Democrats
2021Conservative69.1%by 58.1 points over the People's Party
2025Conservative81.0%by 68.8 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	69.5%	Liberal	53.6	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	70.9%	Liberal	59.8	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	74.3%	New Democratic	64.2	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	78.1%	New Democratic	66.3	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	72.8%	Liberal	59.1	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	83.9%	New Democratic	77.4	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	69.1%	People's	58.1	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	81.0%	Liberal	68.8	official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 63.4 points over the next party. In 2025 the Conservatives took 81.0% of the vote here, 6.9 points above their average of 74.1% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (69.5%), 2006 (70.9%), 2008 (74.3%), 2011 (78.1%), 2015 (72.8%), 2019 (83.9%), 2021 (69.1%) and 2025 (81.0%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Shannon Stubbs, by 30,730 votes (58.3 pts)
2019 Conservative · Shannon Stubbs, by 44,586 votes (77.4 pts)
2015 Conservative · Shannon Stubbs, by 32,382 votes (59.1 pts)

In the old Lakeland on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Lakeland lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Lakeland is

Population: 105,6452021 census
Area: 31,774km²
Density: 3.3people per km²
Electors: 81,581on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

6th-widest margin in Canada
Won by 68.8 points (38,940 votes) · 6th of 343
2nd-least populous in Alberta
105,645 people, 2021 census · 2nd of 37 in Alberta · 100th of 343 in Canada
Boundaries unchanged in 2023
Covers the same ground as its predecessor, and the same electors · one of 54 of 343 by area and electors

Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 14.5% — about 51 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest22nd lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 7.6% — about 44 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest88th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 77.1% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest95th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 2.6% — about 1.6 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest126th highest of 343
Median age is 41.2 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest161st lowest of 343
Median total household income is $84,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest162nd highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Essentially no. Today's Lakeland covers almost exactly the same ground as the Lakeland riding it replaced, and 100% of its 2025 electors lived in it.

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Shannon Stubbs	Conservative	45,826	81.0%	69.1%	+11.9
Barry Milaney	Liberal	6,886	12.2%	4.9%	+7.3
Des Bissonnette	New Democratic	2,153	3.8%	10.5%	−6.7
Michael Manchen	People's	982	1.7%	11.0%	−9.3

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Bridget Burns	Green	411	0.7%
Micheal Speirs	Other	335	0.6%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,153 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 38,940-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

7 of 194

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (187) · ■ won by another party (7).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 19,471 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 34.4% of the 56,593 valid votes, 34.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0038,942

Conservative45,826

Liberal6,886

Still Conservative by 38,940 votes. Actual margin: 38,940.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 61.2% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 80.6%, the Liberals 12.0%, the New Democrats 4.0% and the People's Party 1.9%; in advance and special ballots, 81.6%, 12.4%, 3.5% and 1.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Lakeland, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	80.6%	81.6%	+1.0
Liberal	12.0%	12.4%	+0.4
New Democratic	4.0%	3.5%	−0.5
People's Party	1.9%	1.5%	−0.4

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Lakeland and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Lakeland — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/lakeland/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.