The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 48025Alberta

Fort McMurray—Cold Lake

Fort McMurray—Cold Lake is a federal riding in Alberta. Laila Goodridge (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2021) represents Fort McMurray—Cold Lake. Laila Goodridge (Conservative) held Fort McMurray—Cold Lake for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 32,456 votes (65.7 points), with 80.2% of the vote. Kaitlyn Staines (Liberal) was second with 14.5%, on a turnout of 62.0% of 80,326 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Fort McMurray—Cold Lake on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Fort McMurray—Cold Lake

Laila Goodridge's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Laila Goodridge

Member of Parliament for Fort McMurray—Cold Lake

Conservative

MP since 2021-09-20 · 2 terms

Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities committee
Status of Women committee

129 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on The Economy.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Fort McMurray—Cold Lake, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 49,466 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Laila Goodridge	Conservative	39,649	80.2%
Kaitlyn Staines	Liberal	7,193	14.5%
You-Ju Choi	New Democratic	1,337	2.7%
Alan Clarke	People's Party	896	1.8%
Others (2)		391	0.8%

Laila Goodridge (Conservative) won Fort McMurray—Cold Lake on April 28, 2025 with 39,649 votes, 80.2% of the 49,466 valid votes. Kaitlyn Staines (Liberal) was second with 7,193 (14.5%), 32,456 votes and 65.7 points behind.

Of the 49,466 valid votes, Laila Goodridge (Conservative) took 80.2%, Kaitlyn Staines (Liberal) 14.5%, You-Ju Choi (New Democratic) 2.7% and Alan Clarke (People's Party) 1.8%; the 2 other candidates took 0.8% together. Turnout was 62.0% of 80,326 electors: 49,791 ballots cast, 49,466 of them valid, for 6 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 12.9 (67.3% to 80.2%), the Liberals up 7.5 (7.0% to 14.5%), the New Democrats down 7.3 (10.0% to 2.7%) and the People's Party down 10.8 (12.6% to 1.8%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Conservative stronghold

The party first in Fort McMurray—Cold Lake at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative61.7%by 38.7 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative65.4%by 50.6 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative68.4%by 56.1 points over the New Democrats
2011Conservative73.2%by 60.2 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative60.6%by 32.3 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative79.9%by 70.4 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative67.3%by 54.7 points over the People's Party
2025Conservative80.2%by 65.7 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	61.7%	Liberal	38.7	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	65.4%	Liberal	50.6	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	68.4%	New Democratic	56.1	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	73.2%	New Democratic	60.2	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	60.6%	Liberal	32.3	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	79.9%	Liberal	70.4	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	67.3%	People's	54.7	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	80.2%	Liberal	65.7	official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 53.6 points over the next party. In 2025 the Conservatives took 80.2% of the vote here, 12.1 points above their average of 68.1% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (61.7%), 2006 (65.4%), 2008 (68.4%), 2011 (73.2%), 2015 (60.6%), 2019 (79.9%), 2021 (67.3%) and 2025 (80.2%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Laila Goodridge, by 23,761 votes (55.1 pts)
2019 Conservative · David Yurdiga, by 35,858 votes (70.4 pts)
2015 Conservative · David Yurdiga, by 15,222 votes (32.2 pts)

In the old Fort McMurray—Cold Lake on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Fort McMurray—Cold Lake lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Fort McMurray—Cold Lake is

Population: 110,5152021 census
Area: 147,515km²
Density: 0.75people per km²
Electors: 80,326on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

Highest household income
Median household income $145,000, the highest of 343 (Median total household income, 2021 census)
7th-widest margin in Canada
Won by 65.7 points (32,456 votes) · 7th of 343
2nd-largest by area in Alberta
147,515 km² · 2nd of 37 in Alberta · 15th of 343 in Canada

Median total household income is $145,000 — about 1.7 times the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest1st highest of 343
Median age is 34.8 — about 84 percent of the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest12th lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 20.0% — about 71 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest99th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 66.7% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest120th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 2.6% — about 1.6 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest126th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 16.3% — a little lower than the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest169th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Essentially no. Today's Fort McMurray—Cold Lake covers almost exactly the same ground as the Fort McMurray—Cold Lake riding it replaced, and 99.7% of its 2025 electors lived in it.

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Laila Goodridge	Conservative	39,649	80.2%	67.3%	+12.9
Kaitlyn Staines	Liberal	7,193	14.5%	7.0%	+7.5
You-Ju Choi	New Democratic	1,337	2.7%	10.0%	−7.3
Alan Clarke	People's	896	1.8%	12.6%	−10.8

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Brian Deheer	Green	290	0.6%
Kulbir Chawla	Independent	101	0.2%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,337 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 32,456-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

4 of 164

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (160) · ■ won by another party (4).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 16,229 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 32.8% of the 49,466 valid votes, 32.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0032,458

Conservative39,649

Liberal7,193

Still Conservative by 32,456 votes. Actual margin: 32,456.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 55.8% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 79.9%, the Liberals 14.2%, the New Democrats 2.9% and the People's Party 2.2%; in advance and special ballots, 80.5%, 15.0%, 2.5% and 1.4%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Fort McMurray—Cold Lake, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	79.9%	80.5%	+0.6
Liberal	14.2%	15.0%	+0.8
New Democratic	2.9%	2.5%	−0.4
People's Party	2.2%	1.4%	−0.8

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Fort McMurray—Cold Lake and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Fort McMurray—Cold Lake — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/fort-mcmurray-cold-lake/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.