The Political Record · Federal electoral districts

Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière

Federal riding · QC · No. 24046 · 2023 representation order
Fig. 1 — Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière, 2023 boundaries.
Member
Luc Berthold Conservative
2025 result
Conservative hold by 21,876 votes
Turnout
70.2% of 84,972 electors
Population
103,115 2021 census
Area
7,332 km²
Figures as of
2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Fewest university degrees: 11.7% of 25–64s hold a bachelor's or higher, 4th lowest of 343 (Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher, 2021 census)4th
    Fewest university degrees
    11.7% of 25–64s hold a bachelor's or higher, 4th lowest of 343 (Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher, 2021 census)
  • Most French mother tongue: 96.7% have French as a mother tongue, 10th highest of 343 (Share with French as a mother tongue, 2021 census)10th
    Most French mother tongue
    96.7% have French as a mother tongue, 10th highest of 343 (Share with French as a mother tongue, 2021 census)
  • Width of the margin: Won by 37.3 points (21,876 votes) · 56th of 343 in Canada56th
    Width of the margin
    Won by 37.3 points (21,876 votes) · 56th of 343 in Canada
In brief
  1. Luc Berthold held the seat for the Conservatives by 21,876 votes (+37.3 points).
  2. 15% of today's riding was drawn from other ridings in 2023.
  3. Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 68.5% of votes were cast on the day.
  4. Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is the 4th lowest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Luc Berthold
Conservative · first elected 2015-10-19 · 4 terms
  • Deputy House leader of the official opposition
  • Member: Subcommittee on Private Members' Business
181 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on The Economy.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 15% of today's Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière came from ridings other than the old Mégantic—L'Érable.

Share of today's areaFormer riding
85.4%Mégantic—L'Érable
14.6%Lévis—Lotbinière 47% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Conservative hold
Elected
Luc Berthold
Conservative
34,470
58.8% of valid votes
Margin
21,876
votes · +37.3 pts
Runner-up
Charles Mckaig
Liberal
12,594
21.5% of valid votes
Conservative 58.8% · Liberal 21.5% · Bloc Québécois 16.4% · New Democratic 1.8% · People's 1.2%
Turnout70.2% of 84,972 electors
CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Luc BertholdConservative34,47058.8%55.8%+3.0
Charles MckaigLiberal12,59421.5%13.3%+8.2
Réjean HurteauBloc Québécois9,60716.4%19.3%−2.9
Gabriel D'AstousNew Democratic1,0661.8%3.1%−1.3
Marek SpacekPeople's7171.2%3.5%−2.3
1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote
Yves GilbertOther1810.3%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Swing needed to flip
18.6 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
9,607 votes
Bloc Québécois took fewer than the 21,876-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
3 of 225
No poll ended in a tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (222) · ■ won by another party (3).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 10,939 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 18.7% of the 58,635 valid votes, 18.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Conservative34,470
Liberal12,594
Still Conservative by 21,876 votes. Actual margin: 21,876.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 68.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative61.9%52.1%−9.8
Liberal18.7%27.6%+8.9
Bloc Québécois15.9%17.4%+1.5
New Democratic1.9%1.7%−0.2
People's1.4%0.9%−0.5
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhat kind of place this is

2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.

VIWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

The card

No. 24046QC · 2025
Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière
Luc Berthold
Result
Conservative hold by 21,876
Turnout
70.2%
Population
103,115
Area
7,332 km²
Fewest university degrees: 11.7% of 25–64s hold a bachelor's or higher, 4th lowest of 343 (Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher, 2021 census)4thFewest university degreesMost French mother tongue: 96.7% have French as a mother tongue, 10th highest of 343 (Share with French as a mother tongue, 2021 census)10thMost French mother tongueWidth of the margin: Won by 37.3 points (21,876 votes) · 56th of 343 in Canada56thWidth of the margin
One of 343The Political Record

A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.

Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.

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