The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 24046Quebec

Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière

Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière is a federal riding in Quebec. Luc Berthold (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2015) represents Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière. Luc Berthold (Conservative) held Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 21,876 votes (37.3 points), with 58.8% of the vote. Charles Mckaig (Liberal) was second with 21.5%, on a turnout of 70.2% of 84,972 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière

Luc Berthold's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Luc Berthold

Member of Parliament for Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière

Conservative

MP since 2015-10-19 · 4 terms

Deputy House leader of the official opposition
Subcommittee on Private Members' Business

232 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on The Economy.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 58,635 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Luc Berthold	Conservative	34,470	58.8%
Charles Mckaig	Liberal	12,594	21.5%
Réjean Hurteau	Bloc Québécois	9,607	16.4%
Gabriel D'Astous	New Democratic	1,066	1.8%
Marek Spacek	People's Party	717	1.2%
Other (1)		181	0.3%

Luc Berthold (Conservative) won Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière on April 28, 2025 with 34,470 votes, 58.8% of the 58,635 valid votes. Charles Mckaig (Liberal) was second with 12,594 (21.5%), 21,876 votes and 37.3 points behind.

Of the 58,635 valid votes, Luc Berthold (Conservative) took 58.8%, Charles Mckaig (Liberal) 21.5%, Réjean Hurteau (Bloc Québécois) 16.4%, Gabriel D'Astous (New Democratic) 1.8% and Marek Spacek (People's Party) 1.2%; one other candidate took 0.3%. Turnout was 70.2% of 84,972 electors: 59,616 ballots cast, 58,635 of them valid, for 6 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 3.0 (55.8% to 58.8%), the Liberals up 8.2 (13.3% to 21.5%), the Bloc Québécois down 2.9 (19.3% to 16.4%), the New Democrats down 1.3 (3.1% to 1.8%) and the People's Party down 2.3 (3.5% to 1.2%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Conservative

The party first in Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Bloc Québécois44.8%by 10.1 points over the Liberals
2006changed handsConservative50.7%by 18.6 points over the Bloc Québécois
2008Conservative47.0%by 19.9 points over the Bloc Québécois
2011Conservative47.9%by 20.0 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative37.4%by 10.2 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative48.6%by 22.9 points over the Bloc Québécois
2021Conservative55.8%by 36.5 points over the Bloc Québécois
2025Conservative58.8%by 37.3 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Bloc Québécois	44.8%	Liberal	10.1	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	50.7%	Bloc Québécois	18.6	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	47.0%	Bloc Québécois	19.9	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	47.9%	New Democratic	20.0	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	37.4%	Liberal	10.2	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	48.6%	Bloc Québécois	22.9	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	55.8%	Bloc Québécois	36.5	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	58.8%	Liberal	37.3	official result

The Conservatives were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Bloc Québécois were first in 2004. In 2025 the Conservatives took 58.8% of the vote here, 15.9 points above their average of 42.9% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Bloc Québécois were first here in 2004 (44.8%) and the Conservatives in 2006 (50.7%), 2008 (47.0%), 2011 (47.9%), 2015 (37.4%), 2019 (48.6%), 2021 (55.8%) and 2025 (58.8%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Luc Berthold, by 16,803 votes (36.2 pts)
2019 Conservative · Luc Berthold, by 11,143 votes (23.4 pts)
2015 Conservative · Luc Berthold, by 3,441 votes (7.3 pts)

In Mégantic—L'Érable on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière is

Population: 103,1152021 census
Area: 7,332km²
Density: 14people per km²
Electors: 84,972on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

4th-fewest university degrees
11.7% of 25–64s hold a bachelor's or higher, 4th lowest of 343 (Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher, 2021 census)
10th-most French mother tongue
96.7% have French as a mother tongue, 10th highest of 343 (Share with French as a mother tongue, 2021 census)

Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 11.7% — about 41 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest4th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 96.7% — about 60.4 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest10th highest of 343
Median total household income is $60,400 — about 72 percent of the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest14th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 1.5% — about 9 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest15th lowest of 343
Median age is 50.4 — about 1.2 times the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest23rd highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 73.8% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest137th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 86% of the 2025 electors in today's Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière lived in the old Mégantic—L'Érable; by area, 15% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

86.3%Mégantic—L'Érable 85.4% of the area

13.7%Lévis—Lotbinière 14.6% of the area · 47% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Luc Berthold	Conservative	34,470	58.8%	55.8%	+3.0
Charles Mckaig	Liberal	12,594	21.5%	13.3%	+8.2
Réjean Hurteau	Bloc Québécois	9,607	16.4%	19.3%	−2.9
Gabriel D'Astous	New Democratic	1,066	1.8%	3.1%	−1.3
Marek Spacek	People's	717	1.2%	3.5%	−2.3

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Yves Gilbert

Other

181

0.3%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

9,607 votes

Bloc Québécois took fewer than the 21,876-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

3 of 225

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (222) · ■ won by another party (3).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 10,939 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 18.7% of the 58,635 valid votes, 18.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0021,878

Conservative34,470

Liberal12,594

Still Conservative by 21,876 votes. Actual margin: 21,876.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 68.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 61.9%, the Liberals 18.7%, the Bloc Québécois 15.9%, the New Democrats 1.9% and the People's Party 1.4%; in advance and special ballots, 52.1%, 27.6%, 17.4%, 1.7% and 0.9%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	61.9%	52.1%	−9.8
Liberal	18.7%	27.6%	+8.9
Bloc Québécois	15.9%	17.4%	+1.5
New Democratic	1.9%	1.7%	−0.2
People's Party	1.4%	0.9%	−0.5

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière and its 6 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Mégantic—L’Érable—Lotbinière — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/megantic-l-erable-lotbiniere/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.