The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 13008New Brunswick

Saint John—Kennebecasis

Saint John—Kennebecasis is a federal riding in New Brunswick. Wayne Long (Liberal, first elected to the House in 2015) represents Saint John—Kennebecasis. Wayne Long (Liberal) held Saint John—Kennebecasis for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 9,342 votes (20.8 points), with 58.1% of the vote. Melissa Young (Conservative) was second with 37.3%, on a turnout of 69.5% of 65,035 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Saint John—Kennebecasis on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Saint John—Kennebecasis

Wayne Long's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Wayne Long

Member of Parliament for Saint John—Kennebecasis

Liberal

MP since 2015-10-19 · 4 terms

Secretary of State (Canada Revenue Agency and Financial Institutions)

257 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on The Economy.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Saint John—Kennebecasis, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 44,967 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Wayne Long	Liberal	26,129	58.1%
Melissa Young	Conservative	16,787	37.3%
Armand Cormier	New Democratic	1,206	2.7%
David MacFarquhar	Green	737	1.6%
Other (1)		108	0.2%

Wayne Long (Liberal) won Saint John—Kennebecasis on April 28, 2025 with 26,129 votes, 58.1% of the 44,967 valid votes. Melissa Young (Conservative) was second with 16,787 (37.3%), 9,342 votes and 20.8 points behind.

Of the 44,967 valid votes, Wayne Long (Liberal) took 58.1%, Melissa Young (Conservative) 37.3%, Armand Cormier (New Democratic) 2.7% and David MacFarquhar (Green) 1.6%; one other candidate took 0.2%. Turnout was 69.5% of 65,035 electors: 45,224 ballots cast, 44,967 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 15.7 (42.4% to 58.1%), the Conservatives up 1.1 (36.2% to 37.3%), the New Democrats down 10.4 (13.1% to 2.7%) and the Greens down 1.3 (2.9% to 1.6%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Saint John—Kennebecasis at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal41.4%by 5.4 points over the Conservatives
2006†changed handsConservative41.3%by 1.7 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative42.2%by 8.6 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative51.6%by 21.7 points over the New Democrats
2015changed handsLiberal46.9%by 14.8 points over the Conservatives
2019changed handsConservative36.9%by 2.3 points over the Liberals
2021changed handsLiberal42.4%by 6.2 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal58.1%by 20.8 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	41.4%	Conservative	5.4	carried, our estimate
2006†	Conservative	41.3%	Liberal	1.7	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	42.2%	Liberal	8.6	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	51.6%	New Democratic	21.7	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	46.9%	Conservative	14.8	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	36.9%	Liberal	2.3	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	42.4%	Conservative	6.2	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	58.1%	Conservative	20.8	official result

The Liberals were first at four of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Conservatives at four; it changed hands four times. In 2025 the Liberals took 58.1% of the vote here, 21.9 points above their average of 36.2% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (41.4%), 2015 (46.9%), 2021 (42.4%) and 2025 (58.1%) and the Conservatives in 2006 (41.3%), 2008 (42.2%), 2011 (51.6%) and 2019 (36.9%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2006 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Wayne Long, by 5,060 votes (13.5 pts)
2019 Liberal · Wayne Long, by 1,437 votes (3.4 pts)
2015 Liberal · Wayne Long, by 7,719 votes (18.3 pts)

In Saint John—Rothesay on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Saint John—Kennebecasis lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Saint John—Kennebecasis is

Population: 81,9202021 census
Area: 418km²
Density: 196people per km²
Electors: 65,035on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

Lowest turnout in New Brunswick
69.5% of 65,035 electors voted · 1st of 10 in New Brunswick · 170th of 343 in Canada
3rd-most candidates on the ballot in New Brunswick
5 candidates stood · 3rd of 10 in New Brunswick · 156th of 343 in Canada
3rd-smallest by area in New Brunswick
418 km² · 3rd of 10 in New Brunswick · 179th of 343 in Canada

Median total household income is $71,500 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest72nd lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 61.2% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest91st lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 8.9% — about 51 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest104th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 3.7% — about 2.3 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest110th highest of 343
Median age is 43.2 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest118th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 30.8% — a little higher than the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest155th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 76% of the 2025 electors in today's Saint John—Kennebecasis lived in the old Saint John—Rothesay; by area, 20% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

75.9%Saint John—Rothesay 79.9% of the area · 64% of it kept

24.1%Fundy Royal 20.1% of the area · 1% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Wayne Long	Liberal	26,129	58.1%	42.4%	+15.7
Melissa Young	Conservative	16,787	37.3%	36.2%	+1.1
Armand Cormier	New Democratic	1,206	2.7%	13.1%	−10.4
David MacFarquhar	Green	737	1.6%	2.9%	−1.3

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Austin Venedam

Other

108

0.2%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,206 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 9,342-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

44 of 136

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (91) · ■ won by another party (44) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 4,672 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 10.4% of the 44,967 valid votes, 10.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 009,344

Liberal26,129

Conservative16,787

Still Liberal by 9,342 votes. Actual margin: 9,342.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 48.6% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 51.6%, the Conservatives 42.5%, the New Democrats 3.3% and the Greens 2.2%; in advance and special ballots, 64.2%, 32.4%, 2.1% and 1.1%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Saint John—Kennebecasis, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	51.6%	64.2%	+12.6
Conservative	42.5%	32.4%	−10.1
New Democratic	3.3%	2.1%	−1.2
Green	2.2%	1.1%	−1.1

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Saint John—Kennebecasis and its 2 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Saint John—Kennebecasis — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/saint-john-kennebecasis/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.