The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 13010New Brunswick

Tobique—Mactaquac

Tobique—Mactaquac is a federal riding in New Brunswick. Richard Bragdon (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2019) represents Tobique—Mactaquac. Richard Bragdon (Conservative) held Tobique—Mactaquac for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 9,096 votes (22.9 points), with 58.8% of the vote. Julian Moulton (Liberal) was second with 35.9%, on a turnout of 73.7% of 54,064 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Tobique—Mactaquac on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Tobique—Mactaquac

Richard Bragdon's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Richard Bragdon

Member of Parliament for Tobique—Mactaquac

Conservative

MP since 2019-10-21 · 3 terms

Agriculture and Agri-Food committee

88 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on The Economy.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Tobique—Mactaquac, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 39,667 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Richard Bragdon	Conservative	23,322	58.8%
Julian Moulton	Liberal	14,226	35.9%
Michael John Winter	New Democratic	812	2.0%
Liam MacDougall	Green	806	2.0%
Vern Brundle	People's Party	501	1.3%

Richard Bragdon (Conservative) won Tobique—Mactaquac on April 28, 2025 with 23,322 votes, 58.8% of the 39,667 valid votes. Julian Moulton (Liberal) was second with 14,226 (35.9%), 9,096 votes and 22.9 points behind.

Of the 39,667 valid votes, Richard Bragdon (Conservative) took 58.8%, Julian Moulton (Liberal) 35.9%, Michael John Winter (New Democratic) 2.0%, Liam MacDougall (Green) 2.0% and Vern Brundle (People's Party) 1.3%. Turnout was 73.7% of 54,064 electors: 39,870 ballots cast, 39,667 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 6.3 (52.5% to 58.8%), the Liberals up 13.4 (22.5% to 35.9%), the New Democrats down 9.5 (11.5% to 2.0%), the Greens down 2.9 (4.9% to 2.0%) and the People's Party down 5.9 (7.2% to 1.3%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Tobique—Mactaquac at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal45.3%by 3.3 points over the Conservatives
2006changed handsConservative45.7%by 5.7 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative57.6%by 36.4 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative61.6%by 41.9 points over the New Democrats
2015changed handsLiberal46.1%by 8.8 points over the Conservatives
2019changed handsConservative50.1%by 24.8 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative52.5%by 30.0 points over the Liberals
2025Conservative58.8%by 22.9 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	45.3%	Conservative	3.3	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	45.7%	Liberal	5.7	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	57.6%	Liberal	36.4	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	61.6%	New Democratic	41.9	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	46.1%	Conservative	8.8	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	50.1%	Liberal	24.8	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	52.5%	Liberal	30.0	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	58.8%	Liberal	22.9	official result

The Conservatives were first at six of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Liberals at two; it changed hands three times. In 2025 the Conservatives took 58.8% of the vote here, 9.3 points above their average of 49.5% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (45.3%) and 2015 (46.1%) and the Conservatives in 2006 (45.7%), 2008 (57.6%), 2011 (61.6%), 2019 (50.1%), 2021 (52.5%) and 2025 (58.8%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Richard Bragdon, by 9,313 votes (27.1 pts)
2019 Conservative · Richard Bragdon, by 9,598 votes (25.1 pts)
2015 Liberal · TJ Harvey, by 3,684 votes (9.6 pts)

In the old Tobique—Mactaquac on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Tobique—Mactaquac lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Tobique—Mactaquac is

Population: 64,5302021 census
Area: 15,389km²
Density: 4.2people per km²
Electors: 54,064on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

2nd-largest by area in New Brunswick
15,389 km² · 2nd of 10 in New Brunswick · 57th of 343 in Canada
2nd-least populous in New Brunswick
64,530 people, 2021 census · 2nd of 10 in New Brunswick · 12th of 343 in Canada
3rd-most candidates on the ballot in New Brunswick
5 candidates stood · 3rd of 10 in New Brunswick · 156th of 343 in Canada

Share of households that own their home is 82.2% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest39th highest of 343
Median age is 47.2 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest47th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 4.8% — about 28 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest54th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $70,000 — about 83 percent of the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest60th lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 19.9% — about 71 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest96th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 4.1% — about 2.6 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest109th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 82% of the 2025 electors in today's Tobique—Mactaquac lived in the old Tobique—Mactaquac; by area, 10% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

82.3%Tobique—Mactaquac 89.9% of the area · 91% of it kept

17.7%New Brunswick Southwest 10.1% of the area · 13% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Richard Bragdon	Conservative	23,322	58.8%	52.5%	+6.3
Julian Moulton	Liberal	14,226	35.9%	22.5%	+13.4
Michael John Winter	New Democratic	812	2.0%	11.5%	−9.5
Liam MacDougall	Green	806	2.0%	4.9%	−2.9
Vern Brundle	People's	501	1.3%	7.2%	−5.9

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

812 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 9,096-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

14 of 151

2 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (135) · ■ won by another party (14) · ▨ tied (2).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 4,549 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 11.5% of the 39,667 valid votes, 11.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 009,098

Conservative23,322

Liberal14,226

Still Conservative by 9,096 votes. Actual margin: 9,096.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 55.1% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 61.2%, the Liberals 32.3%, the New Democrats 2.4%, the Greens 2.4% and the People's Party 1.7%; in advance and special ballots, 55.8%, 40.2%, 1.6%, 1.6% and 0.8%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Tobique—Mactaquac, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	61.2%	55.8%	−5.4
Liberal	32.3%	40.2%	+7.9
New Democratic	2.4%	1.6%	−0.8
Green	2.4%	1.6%	−0.8
People's Party	1.7%	0.8%	−0.9

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Tobique—Mactaquac and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Tobique—Mactaquac — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/tobique-mactaquac/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.