The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Terra Nova—The Peninsulas
Terra Nova—Les Péninsules
Federal riding · NL · No. 10007 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Jonathan Rowe Conservative
- 2025 result
- Conservative gain by 12 votes
- Turnout
- 64.4% of 64,709 electors
- Population
- 76,110 2021 census
- Area
- 37,814 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Fewest university degrees9.1% of 25–64s hold a bachelor's or higher, the lowest of 343 (Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher, 2021 census)
- Closest race in CanadaWon by 12 votes (0.1 pts) · 3rd of 343
- Oldest median ageMedian age 54.8, 2nd highest of 343 (Median age, 2021 census)
- Least French mother tongue0.2% have French as a mother tongue, 4th lowest of 343 (Share with French as a mother tongue, 2021 census)
- Smallest immigrant share1.2% are immigrants, 5th lowest of 343 (Share who are immigrants, 2021 census)
- Lowest turnout in Newfoundland and Labrador64.4% of 64,709 electors voted · 3rd of 7 in Newfoundland and Labrador · 73rd of 343 in Canada
In brief
- Jonathan Rowe took the seat for the Conservatives by 12 votes (+0.1 points).
- 6% of today's riding was drawn from other ridings in 2023.
- Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 73.1% of votes were cast on the day.
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is the 1st lowest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Jonathan Rowe
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 6% of today's Terra Nova—The Peninsulas came from ridings other than the old Bonavista—Burin—Trinity.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
93.8%Bonavista—Burin—Trinity 99% of it kept
5.8%Avalon 23% of it kept
0.3%Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame 0% of it kept
0.1%St. John's East 6% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative gain
Elected
Jonathan Rowe
Conservative
19,605
48.0% of valid votes
Margin
12
votes · +0.1 pts
Runner-up
Anthony Germain
Liberal
19,593
47.9% of valid votes
Conservative 48.0% · Liberal 47.9% · New Democratic 4.1%
Turnout64.4% of 64,709 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Rowe | Conservative | 19,605 | 48.0% | 39.8% | +8.2 |
| Anthony Germain | Liberal | 19,593 | 47.9% | 46.5% | +1.4 |
| Liam Ryan | New Democratic | 1,677 | 4.1% | 8.2% | −4.1 |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
0.1 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
1,677 votes
New Democratic took more than the 12-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
103 of 232
3 polls ended in an exact tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 7 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 0.02% of the 40,875 valid votes, 0.1 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative19,605
Liberal19,593
Still Conservative by 12 votes. Actual margin: 12.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 73.1% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative49.5%43.8%−5.7
Liberal46.0%53.2%+7.2
New Democratic4.5%3.1%−1.4
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $60,000 — about 71 percent of the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest11th lowest of 343
- Median age is 54.8 — about 1.3 times the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest2nd highest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 9.1% — about 32 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest1st lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 1.2% — about 7 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest5th lowest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 85.3% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest13th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.2% — about 13 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest4th lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
The card
No. 10007NL · 2025
Terra Nova—The Peninsulas
Jonathan Rowe
- Result
- Conservative gain by 12
- Turnout
- 64.4%
- Population
- 76,110
- Area
- 37,814 km²
Fewest university degreesClosest race in CanadaOldest median ageLeast French mother tongueSmallest immigrant shareLowest turnout in Newfoundland and Labrador
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.