The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 46010Manitoba

Winnipeg Centre

Winnipeg-Centre

Winnipeg Centre is a federal riding in Manitoba. Leah Gazan (NDP, first elected to the House in 2019) represents Winnipeg Centre. Leah Gazan (NDP) held Winnipeg Centre for the New Democrats in the 2025 election by 1,386 votes (4.0 points), with 39.4% of the vote. Rahul Walia (Liberal) was second with 35.4%, on a turnout of 53.7% of 64,577 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Winnipeg Centre on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Winnipeg Centre

Leah Gazan's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Leah Gazan

Member of Parliament for Winnipeg Centre

New Democratic

MP since 2019-10-21 · 3 terms

190 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Main Estimates and Supplementary Estimates (A), 2025-26.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: New Democratic hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Winnipeg Centre, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 34,289 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Leah Gazan	New Democratic	13,524	39.4%
Rahul Walia	Liberal	12,138	35.4%
Tom Bambrick	Conservative	7,658	22.3%
Gary Gervais	Green	389	1.1%
Donald Grant	People's Party	367	1.1%
Other (1)		213	0.6%

Leah Gazan (New Democratic) won Winnipeg Centre on April 28, 2025 with 13,524 votes, 39.4% of the 34,289 valid votes. Rahul Walia (Liberal) was second with 12,138 (35.4%), 1,386 votes and 4.0 points behind.

Of the 34,289 valid votes, Leah Gazan (New Democratic) took 39.4%, Rahul Walia (Liberal) 35.4%, Tom Bambrick (Conservative) 22.3%, Gary Gervais (Green) 1.1% and Donald Grant (People's Party) 1.1%; one other candidate took 0.6%. Turnout was 53.7% of 64,577 electors: 34,660 ballots cast, 34,289 of them valid, for 6 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the New Democrats are down 9.6 (49.0% to 39.4%), the Liberals up 6.8 (28.6% to 35.4%), the Conservatives up 9.6 (12.7% to 22.3%), the Greens down 1.3 (2.4% to 1.1%) and the People's Party down 3.1 (4.2% to 1.1%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually NDP

The party first in Winnipeg Centre at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004New Democratic45.6%by 10.8 points over the Liberals
2006New Democratic49.2%by 25.2 points over the Liberals
2008New Democratic50.1%by 28.4 points over the Conservatives
2011New Democratic52.1%by 24.5 points over the Conservatives
2015changed handsLiberal55.8%by 29.1 points over the New Democrats
2019changed handsNew Democratic39.8%by 4.9 points over the Liberals
2021New Democratic49.0%by 20.4 points over the Liberals
2025New Democratic39.4%by 4.0 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	New Democratic	45.6%	Liberal	10.8	carried, our estimate
2006	New Democratic	49.2%	Liberal	25.2	carried, our estimate
2008	New Democratic	50.1%	Conservative	28.4	carried, our estimate
2011	New Democratic	52.1%	Conservative	24.5	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	55.8%	New Democratic	29.1	carried, our estimate
2019	New Democratic	39.8%	Liberal	4.9	carried, our estimate
2021	New Democratic	49.0%	Liberal	20.4	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	New Democratic	39.4%	Liberal	4.0	official result

The NDP were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Liberals were first in 2015. In 2025 the NDP took 39.4% of the vote here, 5.3 points below their average of 44.7% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the NDP were first here in 2004 (45.6%), 2006 (49.2%), 2008 (50.1%), 2011 (52.1%), 2019 (39.8%), 2021 (49.0%) and 2025 (39.4%) and the Liberals in 2015 (55.8%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 New Democratic · Leah Gazan, by 6,516 votes (21.9 pts)
2019 New Democratic · Leah Gazan, by 2,369 votes (7.5 pts)
2015 Liberal · Robert-Falcon Ouellette, by 8,981 votes (26.5 pts)

In the old Winnipeg Centre on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Winnipeg Centre lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Winnipeg Centre is

Population: 96,8502021 census
Area: 32km²
Density: 3,046people per km²
Electors: 64,577on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

6th-lowest turnout in Canada
53.7% of 64,577 electors voted · 6th of 343
2nd-lowest household income
Median household income $55,600, 2nd lowest of 343 (Median total household income, 2021 census)
Closest race in Manitoba
Won by 1,386 votes (4.0 pts) · 1st of 14 in Manitoba · 28th of 343 in Canada

Median total household income is $55,600 — about 66 percent of the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest2nd lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 38.4% — about 54 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest15th lowest of 343
Median age is 36.0 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest32nd lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 32.4% — about 1.9 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest92nd highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 29.7% — a little higher than the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest160th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.5% — a little lower than the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest166th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 91% of the 2025 electors in today's Winnipeg Centre lived in the old Winnipeg Centre; by area, 10% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

91.1%Winnipeg Centre 90.2% of the area

8.9%Winnipeg North 9.6% of the area · 8% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Leah Gazan	New Democratic	13,524	39.4%	49.0%	−9.6
Rahul Walia	Liberal	12,138	35.4%	28.6%	+6.8
Tom Bambrick	Conservative	7,658	22.3%	12.7%	+9.6
Gary Gervais	Green	389	1.1%	2.4%	−1.3
Donald Grant	People's	367	1.1%	4.2%	−3.1

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Debra Wall

Other

213

0.6%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

7,658 votes

Conservative took more than the 1,386-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.

Election-day polls won by others

60 of 136

7 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the New Democrats (69) · ■ won by another party (60) · ▨ tied (7).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 694 voters switching from New Democratic to Liberal — 2.0% of the 34,289 valid votes, 2.0 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 001,388

New Democratic13,524

Liberal12,138

Still New Democratic by 1,386 votes. Actual margin: 1,386.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 59.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the New Democrats took 37.3%, the Liberals 34.8% and the Conservatives 24.9%; in advance and special ballots, 42.6%, 36.3% and 18.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Winnipeg Centre, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
New Democratic	37.3%	42.6%	+5.3
Liberal	34.8%	36.3%	+1.5
Conservative	24.9%	18.5%	−6.4

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Winnipeg Centre and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Winnipeg Centre — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/winnipeg-centre/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.