The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 46008Manitoba

St. Boniface—St. Vital

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in St. Boniface—St. Vital
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Saint-Boniface—Saint-Vital

St. Boniface—St. Vital is a federal riding in Manitoba. Ginette Lavack (Liberal) has represented St. Boniface—St. Vital since the 2025 election. Ginette Lavack (Liberal) held St. Boniface—St. Vital for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 14,974 votes (27.5 points), with 59.8% of the vote. Shola Agboola (Conservative) was second with 32.3%, on a turnout of 72.3% of 76,021 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — St. Boniface—St. Vital on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents St. Boniface—St. Vital

Ginette Lavack's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Ginette Lavack

Member of Parliament for St. Boniface—St. Vital

Liberal

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Indigenous Services
Indigenous and Northern Affairs committee

49 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Resumption of Debate on Address in Reply.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, St. Boniface—St. Vital, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 54,520 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Ginette Lavack	Liberal	32,599	59.8%
Shola Agboola	Conservative	17,625	32.3%
Thomas Linner	New Democratic	3,773	6.9%
Gilles Pelletier	People's Party	523	1.0%

Ginette Lavack (Liberal) won St. Boniface—St. Vital on April 28, 2025 with 32,599 votes, 59.8% of the 54,520 valid votes. Shola Agboola (Conservative) was second with 17,625 (32.3%), 14,974 votes and 27.5 points behind.

Of the 54,520 valid votes, Ginette Lavack (Liberal) took 59.8%, Shola Agboola (Conservative) 32.3%, Thomas Linner (New Democratic) 6.9% and Gilles Pelletier (People's Party) 1.0%. Turnout was 72.3% of 76,021 electors: 54,930 ballots cast, 54,520 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 16.3 (43.5% to 59.8%), the Conservatives up 4.3 (28.0% to 32.3%), the New Democrats down 14.1 (21.0% to 6.9%) and the People's Party down 3.3 (4.3% to 1.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in St. Boniface—St. Vital at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal46.9%by 15.7 points over the Conservatives
2006Liberal38.7%by 3.4 points over the Conservatives
2008changed handsConservative46.5%by 11.4 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative50.4%by 19.5 points over the Liberals
2015changed handsLiberal58.4%by 29.4 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal42.9%by 10.0 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal43.5%by 15.5 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal59.8%by 27.5 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	46.9%	Conservative	15.7	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	38.7%	Conservative	3.4	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	46.5%	Liberal	11.4	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	50.4%	Liberal	19.5	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	58.4%	Conservative	29.4	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	42.9%	Conservative	10.0	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	43.5%	Conservative	15.5	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	59.8%	Conservative	27.5	official result

The Liberals were first at six of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Conservatives at two; it changed hands twice. In 2025 the Liberals took 59.8% of the vote here, 17.5 points above their average of 42.3% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (46.9%), 2006 (38.7%), 2015 (58.4%), 2019 (42.9%), 2021 (43.5%) and 2025 (59.8%) and the Conservatives in 2008 (46.5%) and 2011 (50.4%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Dan Vandal, by 7,159 votes (15.8 pts)
2019 Liberal · Dan Vandal, by 4,864 votes (10.3 pts)
2015 Liberal · Dan Vandal, by 14,525 votes (29.7 pts)

In Saint Boniface—Saint Vital on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's St. Boniface—St. Vital lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place St. Boniface—St. Vital is

Population: 99,9752021 census
Area: 67km²
Density: 1,492people per km²
Electors: 76,021on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

2nd-most populous in Manitoba
99,975 people, 2021 census · 2nd of 14 in Manitoba · 270th of 343 in Canada
3rd-highest turnout in Manitoba
72.3% of 76,021 electors voted · 3rd of 14 in Manitoba · 93rd of 343 in Canada

Share with French as a mother tongue is 9.7% — about 6.1 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest94th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 39.0% — about 1.4 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest104th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 64.8% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest108th lowest of 343
Median age is 40.8 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest141st lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 20.2% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest155th highest of 343
Median total household income is $83,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest171st lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 95% of the 2025 electors in today's St. Boniface—St. Vital lived in the old Saint Boniface—Saint Vital; by area, 4% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

95.1%Saint Boniface—Saint Vital 96.3% of the area

4.9%Winnipeg South 3.6% of the area · 2% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Ginette Lavack	Liberal	32,599	59.8%	43.5%	+16.3
Shola Agboola	Conservative	17,625	32.3%	28.0%	+4.3
Thomas Linner	New Democratic	3,773	6.9%	21.0%	−14.1
Gilles Pelletier	People's	523	1.0%	4.3%	−3.3

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

3,773 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 14,974-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

15 of 168

2 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (151) · ■ won by another party (15) · ▨ tied (2).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 7,488 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 13.7% of the 54,520 valid votes, 13.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0014,976

Liberal32,599

Conservative17,625

Still Liberal by 14,974 votes. Actual margin: 14,974.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 53.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 55.2%, the Conservatives 35.5%, the New Democrats 8.1% and the People's Party 1.2%; in advance and special ballots, 65.1%, 28.7%, 5.5% and 0.7%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, St. Boniface—St. Vital, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	55.2%	65.1%	+9.9
Conservative	35.5%	28.7%	−6.8
New Democratic	8.1%	5.5%	−2.6
People's Party	1.2%	0.7%	−0.5

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — St. Boniface—St. Vital and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"St. Boniface—St. Vital — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/st-boniface-st-vital/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.