The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Elmwood—Transcona
Federal riding · MB · No. 46003 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Colin Reynolds Conservative
- 2025 result
- Conservative gain by 3,325 votes
- Turnout
- 65.6% of 71,888 electors
- Population
- 99,365 2021 census
- Area
- 172 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Closest race in ManitobaWon by 3,325 votes (7.1 pts) · 3rd of 14 in Manitoba · 68th of 343 in Canada
- Changed hands in 2025One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (3 of 14 in Manitoba)
- Population, smallest first99,365 people, 2021 census · 70th of 343 in Canada
In brief
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Colin Reynolds
- Member: Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 28% of today's Elmwood—Transcona came from ridings other than the old Provencher.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
72.0%Provencher 1% of it kept
27.9%Elmwood—Transcona 96% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative gain
Elected
Colin Reynolds
Conservative
19,463
41.6% of valid votes
Margin
3,325
votes · +7.1 pts
Runner-up
Leila Dance
New Democratic
16,138
34.5% of valid votes
Conservative 41.6% · New Democratic 34.5% · Liberal 22.4%
Turnout65.6% of 71,888 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Reynolds | Conservative | 19,463 | 41.6% | 28.2% | +13.4 |
| Leila Dance | New Democratic | 16,138 | 34.5% | 48.8% | −14.3 |
| Ian MacIntyre | Liberal | 10,512 | 22.4% | 14.8% | +7.6 |
2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
| Collin Watson | People's | 396 | 0.8% |
| Nicolas Geddert | Green | 321 | 0.7% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
3.5 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
10,512 votes
Liberal took more than the 3,325-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
20 of 134
5 polls ended in an exact tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 1,663 voters switching from Conservative to New Democratic — 3.6% of the 46,830 valid votes, 3.5 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative19,463
New Democratic16,138
Still Conservative by 3,325 votes. Actual margin: 3,325.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 55.9% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative44.2%38.2%−6.0
New Democratic31.8%37.8%+6.0
Liberal22.2%22.7%+0.5
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $81,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest160th lowest of 343
- Median age is 38.0 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest66th lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 25.0% — a little lower than the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest143rd lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 24.0% — about 1.4 times the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest132nd highest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 71.2% — about the same as the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest169th lowest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.9% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest141st highest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
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The card
No. 46003MB · 2025
Elmwood—Transcona
Colin Reynolds
- Result
- Conservative gain by 3,325
- Turnout
- 65.6%
- Population
- 99,365
- Area
- 172 km²
Closest race in ManitobaChanged hands in 2025Population, smallest first
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
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