The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 46003Manitoba

Elmwood—Transcona

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Elmwood—Transcona
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Elmwood—Transcona is a federal riding in Manitoba. Colin Reynolds (Conservative) has represented Elmwood—Transcona since the 2025 election. Colin Reynolds (Conservative) took Elmwood—Transcona from the New Democrats in the 2025 election by 3,325 votes (7.1 points), with 41.6% of the vote. Leila Dance (NDP) was second with 34.5%, on a turnout of 65.6% of 71,888 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Elmwood—Transcona on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Elmwood—Transcona

Colin Reynolds's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Colin Reynolds

Member of Parliament for Elmwood—Transcona

Conservative

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities committee

47 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Spring Economic Update 2026 Implementation Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative gain from the New Democrats

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Elmwood—Transcona, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 46,830 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Colin Reynolds	Conservative	19,463	41.6%
Leila Dance	New Democratic	16,138	34.5%
Ian MacIntyre	Liberal	10,512	22.4%
Others (2)		717	1.5%

Colin Reynolds (Conservative) won Elmwood—Transcona on April 28, 2025 with 19,463 votes, 41.6% of the 46,830 valid votes. Leila Dance (New Democratic) was second with 16,138 (34.5%), 3,325 votes and 7.1 points behind.

Of the 46,830 valid votes, Colin Reynolds (Conservative) took 41.6%, Leila Dance (New Democratic) 34.5% and Ian MacIntyre (Liberal) 22.4%; the 2 other candidates took 1.5% together. Turnout was 65.6% of 71,888 electors: 47,146 ballots cast, 46,830 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 13.4 (28.2% to 41.6%), the New Democrats down 14.3 (48.8% to 34.5%) and the Liberals up 7.6 (14.8% to 22.4%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Elmwood—Transcona at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004New Democratic49.3%by 21.6 points over the Conservatives
2006New Democratic48.3%by 14.8 points over the Conservatives
2008†New Democratic43.9%by 2.0 points over the Conservatives
2011changed handsConservative47.5%by 3.8 points over the New Democrats
2015†Conservative34.6%by 1.4 points over the New Democrats
2019changed handsNew Democratic44.6%by 6.3 points over the Conservatives
2021New Democratic48.8%by 20.5 points over the Conservatives
2025changed handsConservative41.6%by 7.1 points over the New Democrats

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	New Democratic	49.3%	Conservative	21.6	carried, our estimate
2006	New Democratic	48.3%	Conservative	14.8	carried, our estimate
2008†	New Democratic	43.9%	Conservative	2.0	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	47.5%	New Democratic	3.8	carried, our estimate
2015†	Conservative	34.6%	New Democratic	1.4	carried, our estimate
2019	New Democratic	44.6%	Conservative	6.3	carried, our estimate
2021	New Democratic	48.8%	Conservative	20.5	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	41.6%	New Democratic	7.1	official result

The NDP were first at five of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Conservatives at three; it changed hands three times. In 2025 the Conservatives took 41.6% of the vote here, 5.6 points above their average of 36.0% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the NDP were first here in 2004 (49.3%), 2006 (48.3%), 2008 (43.9%), 2019 (44.6%) and 2021 (48.8%) and the Conservatives in 2011 (47.5%), 2015 (34.6%) and 2025 (41.6%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2008 and 2015 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 New Democratic · Daniel Blaikie, by 9,023 votes (21.6 pts)
2019 New Democratic · Daniel Blaikie, by 3,546 votes (8.1 pts)
2015 New Democratic · Daniel Blaikie, by 61 votes (0.1 pts)

In the old Elmwood—Transcona on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Elmwood—Transcona lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Elmwood—Transcona is

Population: 99,3652021 census
Area: 172km²
Density: 578people per km²
Electors: 71,888on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

3rd-closest race in Manitoba
Won by 3,325 votes (7.1 pts) · 3rd of 14 in Manitoba · 68th of 343 in Canada
Changed hands in 2025
One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (3 of 14 in Manitoba)

Median age is 38.0 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest66th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 24.0% — about 1.4 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest132nd highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.9% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest141st highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 25.0% — a little lower than the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest143rd lowest of 343
Median total household income is $81,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest160th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 71.2% — about the same as the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest169th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 97% of the 2025 electors in today's Elmwood—Transcona lived in the old Elmwood—Transcona; by area, 72% of the riding came from the old Provencher.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

97.1%Elmwood—Transcona 27.9% of the area · 96% of it kept

2.9%Provencher 72.0% of the area · 1% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Colin Reynolds	Conservative	19,463	41.6%	28.2%	+13.4
Leila Dance	New Democratic	16,138	34.5%	48.8%	−14.3
Ian MacIntyre	Liberal	10,512	22.4%	14.8%	+7.6

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Collin Watson	People's	396	0.8%
Nicolas Geddert	Green	321	0.7%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

10,512 votes

Liberal took more than the 3,325-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.

Election-day polls won by others

20 of 134

5 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (109) · ■ won by another party (20) · ▨ tied (5).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 1,663 voters switching from Conservative to New Democratic — 3.6% of the 46,830 valid votes, 3.5 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 003,326

Conservative19,463

New Democratic16,138

Still Conservative by 3,325 votes. Actual margin: 3,325.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 55.9% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 44.2%, the New Democrats 31.8% and the Liberals 22.2%; in advance and special ballots, 38.2%, 37.8% and 22.7%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Elmwood—Transcona, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	44.2%	38.2%	−6.0
New Democratic	31.8%	37.8%	+6.0
Liberal	22.2%	22.7%	+0.5

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Elmwood—Transcona and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Elmwood—Transcona — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/elmwood-transcona/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.