The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35006Ontario

Bay of Quinte

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Bay of Quinte
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Bay of Quinte is a federal riding in Ontario. Chris Malette (Liberal) has represented Bay of Quinte since the 2025 election. Chris Malette (Liberal) took Bay of Quinte from the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 3,716 votes (5.7 points), with 50.4% of the vote. Ryan Williams (Conservative) was second with 44.7%, on a turnout of 69.7% of 94,044 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Bay of Quinte on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Bay of Quinte

Chris Malette's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Chris Malette

Member of Parliament for Bay of Quinte

Liberal

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Environment and Sustainable Development committee
National Defence committee

41 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Military Justice System Modernization Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal gain from the Conservatives

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Bay of Quinte, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 65,182 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Chris Malette	Liberal	32,846	50.4%
Ryan Williams	Conservative	29,130	44.7%
Kate Crothers	New Democratic	2,373	3.6%
Erica Charlton	Green	833	1.3%

Chris Malette (Liberal) won Bay of Quinte on April 28, 2025 with 32,846 votes, 50.4% of the 65,182 valid votes. Ryan Williams (Conservative) was second with 29,130 (44.7%), 3,716 votes and 5.7 points behind.

Of the 65,182 valid votes, Chris Malette (Liberal) took 50.4%, Ryan Williams (Conservative) 44.7%, Kate Crothers (New Democratic) 3.6% and Erica Charlton (Green) 1.3%. Turnout was 69.7% of 94,044 electors: 65,541 ballots cast, 65,182 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 13.6 (36.8% to 50.4%), the Conservatives up 4.4 (40.3% to 44.7%), the New Democrats down 11.6 (15.2% to 3.6%) and the Greens down 0.9 (2.2% to 1.3%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Bay of Quinte at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative41.2%by 2.7 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative45.8%by 12.5 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative49.6%by 22.0 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative53.5%by 30.9 points over the New Democrats
2015changed handsLiberal50.7%by 16.4 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal39.2%by 2.4 points over the Conservatives
2021changed handsConservative40.3%by 3.5 points over the Liberals
2025changed handsLiberal50.4%by 5.7 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	41.2%	Liberal	2.7	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	45.8%	Liberal	12.5	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	49.6%	Liberal	22.0	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	53.5%	New Democratic	30.9	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	50.7%	Conservative	16.4	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	39.2%	Conservative	2.4	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	40.3%	Liberal	3.5	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	50.4%	Conservative	5.7	official result

The Conservatives were first at five of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Liberals at three; it changed hands three times. In 2025 the Liberals took 50.4% of the vote here, 15.3 points above their average of 35.1% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (41.2%), 2006 (45.8%), 2008 (49.6%), 2011 (53.5%) and 2021 (40.3%) and the Liberals in 2015 (50.7%), 2019 (39.2%) and 2025 (50.4%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Ryan Williams, by 2,937 votes (4.8 pts)
2019 Liberal · Neil Ellis, by 1,449 votes (2.4 pts)
2015 Liberal · Neil Ellis, by 9,500 votes (16.4 pts)

In the old Bay of Quinte on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Bay of Quinte lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Bay of Quinte is

Population: 110,1552021 census
Area: 2,946km²
Density: 37people per km²
Electors: 94,044on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

Changed hands in 2025
One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (21 of 122 in Ontario)
Decided before election day
On election-day polls alone another party led; advance and special ballots decided it · one of 27 of 343

Median age is 48.4 — about 1.2 times the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest38th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 18.3% — about 65 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest74th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $75,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest97th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 8.9% — about 51 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest104th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 2.4% — about 1.5 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest130th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 68.2% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest134th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Bay of Quinte, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Bay of Quinte, but it is only 94% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Bay of Quinte 100.0% of the area · 94% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Chris Malette	Liberal	32,846	50.4%	36.8%	+13.6
Ryan Williams	Conservative	29,130	44.7%	40.3%	+4.4
Kate Crothers	New Democratic	2,373	3.6%	15.2%	−11.6
Erica Charlton	Green	833	1.3%	2.2%	−0.9

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,373 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 3,716-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

107 of 191

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (83) · ■ won by another party (107) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 1,859 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 2.9% of the 65,182 valid votes, 2.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 003,718

Liberal32,846

Conservative29,130

Still Liberal by 3,716 votes. Actual margin: 3,716.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 55.3% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots. On election day alone, the Conservatives led here — the seat was decided by ballots cast before the day.

On election day the Liberals took 45.5%, the Conservatives 48.4%, the New Democrats 4.5% and the Greens 1.6%; in advance and special ballots, 56.4%, 40.1%, 2.6% and 0.9%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Bay of Quinte, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	45.5%	56.4%	+10.9
Conservative	48.4%	40.1%	−8.3
New Democratic	4.5%	2.6%	−1.9
Green	1.6%	0.9%	−0.7

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Bay of Quinte and its 3 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Bay of Quinte — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/bay-of-quinte/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.