The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Northumberland—Clarke
Federal riding · ON · No. 35074 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Philip Lawrence Conservative
- 2025 result
- Conservative hold by 2,214 votes
- Turnout
- 75.0% of 95,368 electors
- Population
- 106,575 2021 census
- Area
- 2,629 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Length of the ballot7 candidates stood · 24th of 343 in Canada
- Turnout75.0% of 95,368 electors voted · 33rd of 343 in Canada
- Closeness of the raceWon by 2,214 votes (3.1 pts) · 47th of 343 in Canada
In brief
- Philip Lawrence held the seat for the Conservatives by 2,214 votes (+3.1 points).
- The riding shrank in 2023: it keeps 82% of the old Northumberland—Peterborough South.
- Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 49.1% of votes were cast on the day.
- Median age is the 19th highest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Philip Lawrence
- Member: Transport, Infrastructure and Communities
IDid this riding change?
Yes — it shrank. All of today's Northumberland—Clarke comes from the old Northumberland—Peterborough South, but it is only 82% of that riding. The rest went elsewhere.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
100.0%Northumberland—Peterborough South 82% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative hold
Elected
Philip Lawrence
Conservative
34,862
49.0% of valid votes
Margin
2,214
votes · +3.1 pts
Runner-up
John Goheen
Liberal
32,648
45.9% of valid votes
Conservative 49.0% · Liberal 45.9% · New Democratic 2.9%
Turnout75.0% of 95,368 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Lawrence | Conservative | 34,862 | 49.0% | 43.7% | +5.3 |
| John Goheen | Liberal | 32,648 | 45.9% | 33.8% | +12.1 |
| Ava Becker | New Democratic | 2,090 | 2.9% | 13.9% | −11.0 |
4 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
| Christina Marie Wilson | Green | 630 | 0.9% |
| Lisa Bradburn | People's | 521 | 0.7% |
| Jody Ledgerwood | Independent | 270 | 0.4% |
| John Wesselius | Other | 171 | 0.2% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
1.6 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
2,090 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 2,214-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
42 of 214
4 polls ended in an exact tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 1,108 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 1.6% of the 71,192 valid votes, 1.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative34,862
Liberal32,648
Still Conservative by 2,214 votes. Actual margin: 2,214.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 49.1% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative53.3%44.8%−8.5
Liberal40.0%51.5%+11.5
New Democratic3.7%2.2%−1.5
Green1.2%0.6%−0.6
People's1.0%0.5%−0.5
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $87,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest138th highest of 343
- Median age is 50.8 — about 1.2 times the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest19th highest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 19.7% — about 70 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest94th lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 10.9% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest125th lowest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 81.8% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest43rd highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.3% — about 81 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest141st lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
The card
No. 35074ON · 2025
Northumberland—Clarke
Philip Lawrence
- Result
- Conservative hold by 2,214
- Turnout
- 75.0%
- Population
- 106,575
- Area
- 2,629 km²
Length of the ballotTurnoutCloseness of the race
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
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