The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35074Ontario

Northumberland—Clarke

Northumberland—Clarke is a federal riding in Ontario. Philip Lawrence (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2019) represents Northumberland—Clarke. Philip Lawrence (Conservative) held Northumberland—Clarke for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 2,214 votes (3.1 points), with 49.0% of the vote. John Goheen (Liberal) was second with 45.9%, on a turnout of 75.0% of 95,368 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Northumberland—Clarke on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Northumberland—Clarke

Philip Lawrence's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Philip Lawrence

Member of Parliament for Northumberland—Clarke

Conservative

MP since 2019-10-21 · 3 terms

Transport, Infrastructure and Communities committee

125 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Main Estimates, 2025-26.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Northumberland—Clarke, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 71,192 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Philip Lawrence	Conservative	34,862	49.0%
John Goheen	Liberal	32,648	45.9%
Ava Becker	New Democratic	2,090	2.9%
Others (4)		1,592	2.2%

Philip Lawrence (Conservative) won Northumberland—Clarke on April 28, 2025 with 34,862 votes, 49.0% of the 71,192 valid votes. John Goheen (Liberal) was second with 32,648 (45.9%), 2,214 votes and 3.1 points behind.

Of the 71,192 valid votes, Philip Lawrence (Conservative) took 49.0%, John Goheen (Liberal) 45.9% and Ava Becker (New Democratic) 2.9%; the 4 other candidates took 2.2% together. Turnout was 75.0% of 95,368 electors: 71,518 ballots cast, 71,192 of them valid, for 7 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 5.3 (43.7% to 49.0%), the Liberals up 12.1 (33.8% to 45.9%) and the New Democrats down 11.0 (13.9% to 2.9%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Northumberland—Clarke at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004†Liberal39.6%by 0.1 points over the Conservatives
2006changed handsConservative42.1%by 7.1 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative49.6%by 21.9 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative53.9%by 33.2 points over the New Democrats
2015changed handsLiberal42.5%by 2.9 points over the Conservatives
2019changed handsConservative39.7%by 3.5 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative43.7%by 9.9 points over the Liberals
2025Conservative49.0%by 3.1 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004†	Liberal	39.6%	Conservative	0.1	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	42.1%	Liberal	7.1	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	49.6%	Liberal	21.9	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	53.9%	New Democratic	33.2	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	42.5%	Conservative	2.9	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	39.7%	Liberal	3.5	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	43.7%	Liberal	9.9	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	49.0%	Liberal	3.1	official result

The Conservatives were first at six of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Liberals at two; it changed hands three times. In 2025 the Conservatives took 49.0% of the vote here, 5.0 points above their average of 44.0% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (39.6%) and 2015 (42.5%) and the Conservatives in 2006 (42.1%), 2008 (49.6%), 2011 (53.9%), 2019 (39.7%), 2021 (43.7%) and 2025 (49.0%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2004 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Philip Lawrence, by 7,679 votes (11.0 pts)
2019 Conservative · Philip Lawrence, by 2,408 votes (3.5 pts)
2015 Liberal · Kim Rudd, by 1,878 votes (2.9 pts)

In Northumberland—Peterborough South on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Northumberland—Clarke lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Northumberland—Clarke is

Population: 106,5752021 census
Area: 2,629km²
Density: 41people per km²
Electors: 95,368on the 2025 lists

Median age is 50.8 — about 1.2 times the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest19th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 81.8% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest43rd highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 19.7% — about 70 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest94th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 10.9% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest125th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $87,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest138th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.3% — about 81 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest141st lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Northumberland—Clarke, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Northumberland—Peterborough South, but it is only 82% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Northumberland—Peterborough South 100.0% of the area · 82% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Philip Lawrence	Conservative	34,862	49.0%	43.7%	+5.3
John Goheen	Liberal	32,648	45.9%	33.8%	+12.1
Ava Becker	New Democratic	2,090	2.9%	13.9%	−11.0

4 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Christina Marie Wilson	Green	630	0.9%
Lisa Bradburn	People's	521	0.7%
Jody Ledgerwood	Independent	270	0.4%
John Wesselius	Other	171	0.2%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,090 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 2,214-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

42 of 214

4 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (168) · ■ won by another party (42) · ▨ tied (4).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 1,108 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 1.6% of the 71,192 valid votes, 1.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 002,216

Conservative34,862

Liberal32,648

Still Conservative by 2,214 votes. Actual margin: 2,214.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 49.1% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 40.0%, the Conservatives 53.3%, the New Democrats 3.7%, the Greens 1.2% and the People's Party 1.0%; in advance and special ballots, 51.5%, 44.8%, 2.2%, 0.6% and 0.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Northumberland—Clarke, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	40.0%	51.5%	+11.5
Conservative	53.3%	44.8%	−8.5
New Democratic	3.7%	2.2%	−1.5
Green	1.2%	0.6%	−0.6
People's Party	1.0%	0.5%	−0.5

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Northumberland—Clarke and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Northumberland—Clarke — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/northumberland-clarke/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.