The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35005Ontario

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte is a federal riding in Ontario. Doug Shipley (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2019) represents Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte. Doug Shipley (Conservative) held Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 4,799 votes (7.3 points), with 51.7% of the vote. Rose Zacharias (Liberal) was second with 44.4%, on a turnout of 70.7% of 93,580 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

Doug Shipley's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Doug Shipley

Member of Parliament for Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

Conservative

MP since 2019-10-21 · 3 terms

38 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Bail and Sentencing Reform Act.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 65,709 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Doug Shipley	Conservative	33,949	51.7%
Rose Zacharias	Liberal	29,150	44.4%
Gabriela Trujillo	New Democratic	1,559	2.4%
Greg Taylor	Green	893	1.4%
Other (1)		158	0.2%

Doug Shipley (Conservative) won Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte on April 28, 2025 with 33,949 votes, 51.7% of the 65,709 valid votes. Rose Zacharias (Liberal) was second with 29,150 (44.4%), 4,799 votes and 7.3 points behind.

Of the 65,709 valid votes, Doug Shipley (Conservative) took 51.7%, Rose Zacharias (Liberal) 44.4%, Gabriela Trujillo (New Democratic) 2.4% and Greg Taylor (Green) 1.4%; one other candidate took 0.2%. Turnout was 70.7% of 93,580 electors: 66,124 ballots cast, 65,709 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 6.3 (45.4% to 51.7%), the Liberals up 14.2 (30.2% to 44.4%), the New Democrats down 14.1 (16.5% to 2.4%) and the Greens up 1.2 (0.2% to 1.4%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Conservative

The party first in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal42.4%by 2.7 points over the Conservatives
2006changed handsConservative43.1%by 5.8 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative52.3%by 28.1 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative54.8%by 34.8 points over the New Democrats
2015†Conservative41.9%by 0.4 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative39.4%by 8.2 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative45.4%by 15.2 points over the Liberals
2025Conservative51.7%by 7.3 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	42.4%	Conservative	2.7	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	43.1%	Liberal	5.8	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	52.3%	Liberal	28.1	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	54.8%	New Democratic	34.8	carried, our estimate
2015†	Conservative	41.9%	Liberal	0.4	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	39.4%	Liberal	8.2	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	45.4%	Liberal	15.2	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	51.7%	Liberal	7.3	official result

The Conservatives were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Liberals were first in 2004. In 2025 the Conservatives took 51.7% of the vote here, 6.5 points above their average of 45.2% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (42.4%) and the Conservatives in 2006 (43.1%), 2008 (52.3%), 2011 (54.8%), 2015 (41.9%), 2019 (39.4%), 2021 (45.4%) and 2025 (51.7%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2015 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Doug Shipley, by 7,410 votes (14.2 pts)
2019 Conservative · Doug Shipley, by 4,176 votes (7.8 pts)
2015 Conservative · Alex Nuttall, by 86 votes (0.1 pts)

In the old Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte is

Population: 115,4902021 census
Area: 1,366km²
Density: 85people per km²
Electors: 93,580on the 2025 lists

Median total household income is $93,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest97th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 12.6% — about 73 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest139th lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 25.2% — a little lower than the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest144th lowest of 343
Median age is 42.0 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest155th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.6% — about the same as the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest165th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 71.4% — about the same as the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest171st highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 91% of the 2025 electors in today's Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte lived in the old Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte; by area, 24% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

90.9%Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 76.3% of the area

9.1%Simcoe North 23.7% of the area · 10% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Doug Shipley	Conservative	33,949	51.7%	45.4%	+6.3
Rose Zacharias	Liberal	29,150	44.4%	30.2%	+14.2
Gabriela Trujillo	New Democratic	1,559	2.4%	16.5%	−14.1
Greg Taylor	Green	893	1.4%	0.2%	+1.2

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Michael Speers

Other

158

0.2%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,559 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 4,799-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

28 of 193

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (165) · ■ won by another party (28).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 2,400 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 3.7% of the 65,709 valid votes, 3.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 004,800

Conservative33,949

Liberal29,150

Still Conservative by 4,799 votes. Actual margin: 4,799.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 50.3% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 39.9%, the Conservatives 55.2%, the New Democrats 3.0% and the Greens 1.6%; in advance and special ballots, 48.9%, 48.1%, 1.8% and 1.1%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	39.9%	48.9%	+9.0
Conservative	55.2%	48.1%	−7.1
New Democratic	3.0%	1.8%	−1.2
Green	1.6%	1.1%	−0.5

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/barrie-springwater-oro-medonte/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.