The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Beaches—East York
Federal riding · ON · No. 35007 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Tanveer Shahnawaz Liberal
- 2025 result
- Liberal hold by 25,974 votes
- Turnout
- 71.9% of 82,102 electors
- Population
- 109,355 2021 census
- Area
- 19 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Widest margin in OntarioWon by 44.2 points (25,974 votes) · 3rd of 122 in Ontario · 31st of 343 in Canada
- Boundaries unchanged in 2023Covers the same ground as its predecessor · one of 59 of 343 by area
- Area, smallest first19 km² · 12th of 343 in Canada
In brief
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Tanveer Shahnawaz
IDid this riding change?
Essentially no. Today's Beaches—East York covers almost exactly the same ground as the Beaches—East York riding it replaced.
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Liberal hold
Elected
Nate Erskine-Smith
Liberal
39,804
67.7% of valid votes
Margin
25,974
votes · +44.2 pts
Runner-up
Jocelyne Poirier
Conservative
13,830
23.5% of valid votes
Liberal 67.7% · Conservative 23.5% · New Democratic 6.9% · Green 1.3%
Turnout71.9% of 82,102 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Erskine-Smith | Liberal | 39,804 | 67.7% | 56.2% | +11.5 |
| Jocelyne Poirier | Conservative | 13,830 | 23.5% | 14.3% | +9.2 |
| Shannon Devine | New Democratic | 4,027 | 6.9% | 22.4% | −15.5 |
| Jack Pennings | Green | 748 | 1.3% | 2.7% | −1.4 |
3 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
| Diane Joseph | Independent | 161 | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Rowley | Other | 146 | 0.2% |
| Steve Rutchinski | Other | 39 | 0.1% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
22.1 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
4,027 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 25,974-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
9 of 181
No poll ended in a tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 12,988 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 22.1% of the 58,755 valid votes, 22.1 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Liberal39,804
Conservative13,830
Still Liberal by 25,974 votes. Actual margin: 25,974.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 50.9% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Liberal62.9%72.8%+9.9
Conservative27.4%19.5%−7.9
New Democratic7.4%6.3%−1.1
Green1.6%1.0%−0.6
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $90,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest112th highest of 343
- Median age is 41.2 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest161st lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 51.6% — about 1.8 times the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest41st highest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 31.7% — about 1.8 times the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest100th highest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 55.8% — about 78 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest68th lowest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.8% — a little higher than the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest146th highest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
The card
No. 35007ON · 2025
Beaches—East York
Tanveer Shahnawaz
- Result
- Liberal hold by 25,974
- Turnout
- 71.9%
- Population
- 109,355
- Area
- 19 km²
Widest margin in OntarioBoundaries unchanged in 2023Area, smallest first
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.