The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35007Ontario

Beaches—East York

Name: Beaches—East York by-election, 2026-08-31
Start: 2026-08-31
End: 2026-08-31

Beaches—East York is a federal riding in Ontario. Tanveer Shahnawaz (Liberal) has represented Beaches—East York since the by-election of 2026-08-31. Tanveer Shahnawaz held the seat for the Liberals at the by-election of 2026-08-31 by 10,008 votes (30.2 points) with 55.8% of the vote. Nate Erskine-Smith (Liberal) held Beaches—East York for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 25,974 votes (44.2 points), with 67.7% of the vote. Jocelyne Poirier (Conservative) was second with 23.5%, on a turnout of 71.9% of 82,102 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Beaches—East York on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Beaches—East York

Tanveer Shahnawaz's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Tanveer Shahnawaz

Member of Parliament for Beaches—East York

Liberal

MP since the by-election of 2026-08-31 · first term

2 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Finance.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Beaches—East York, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 58,755 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Nate Erskine-Smith	Liberal	39,804	67.7%
Jocelyne Poirier	Conservative	13,830	23.5%
Shannon Devine	New Democratic	4,027	6.9%
Jack Pennings	Green	748	1.3%
Others (3)		346	0.6%

Nate Erskine-Smith (Liberal) won Beaches—East York on April 28, 2025 with 39,804 votes, 67.7% of the 58,755 valid votes. Jocelyne Poirier (Conservative) was second with 13,830 (23.5%), 25,974 votes and 44.2 points behind.

Of the 58,755 valid votes, Nate Erskine-Smith (Liberal) took 67.7%, Jocelyne Poirier (Conservative) 23.5%, Shannon Devine (New Democratic) 6.9% and Jack Pennings (Green) 1.3%; the 3 other candidates took 0.6% together. Turnout was 71.9% of 82,102 electors: 59,066 ballots cast, 58,755 of them valid, for 7 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 11.5 (56.2% to 67.7%), the Conservatives up 9.2 (14.3% to 23.5%), the New Democrats down 15.5 (22.4% to 6.9%) and the Greens down 1.4 (2.7% to 1.3%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Liberal

The party first in Beaches—East York at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal47.9%by 15.6 points over the New Democrats
2006Liberal40.4%by 5.4 points over the New Democrats
2008Liberal41.0%by 8.8 points over the New Democrats
2011changed handsNew Democratic41.6%by 10.9 points over the Liberals
2015changed handsLiberal49.4%by 18.6 points over the New Democrats
2019Liberal57.2%by 35.8 points over the New Democrats
2021Liberal56.2%by 33.8 points over the New Democrats
2025Liberal67.7%by 44.2 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	47.9%	New Democratic	15.6	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	40.4%	New Democratic	5.4	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	41.0%	New Democratic	8.8	carried, our estimate
2011	New Democratic	41.6%	Liberal	10.9	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	49.4%	New Democratic	18.6	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	57.2%	New Democratic	35.8	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	56.2%	New Democratic	33.8	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	67.7%	Conservative	44.2	official result

The Liberals were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the NDP were first in 2011. In 2025 the Liberals took 67.7% of the vote here, 21.6 points above their average of 46.1% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (47.9%), 2006 (40.4%), 2008 (41.0%), 2015 (49.4%), 2019 (57.2%), 2021 (56.2%) and 2025 (67.7%) and the NDP in 2011 (41.6%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, by 17,406 votes (34.1 pts)
2019 Liberal · Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, by 20,451 votes (35.8 pts)
2015 Liberal · Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, by 10,345 votes (18.6 pts)

In the old Beaches—East York on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Beaches—East York lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Beaches—East York is

Population: 109,3552021 census
Area: 19km²
Density: 5,817people per km²
Electors: 82,102on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

3rd-widest margin in Ontario
Won by 44.2 points (25,974 votes) · 3rd of 122 in Ontario · 31st of 343 in Canada
Boundaries unchanged in 2023
Covers the same ground as its predecessor, and the same electors · one of 54 of 343 by area and electors

Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 51.6% — about 1.8 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest41st highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 55.8% — about 78 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest68th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 31.7% — about 1.8 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest100th highest of 343
Median total household income is $90,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest112th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.8% — a little higher than the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest146th highest of 343
Median age is 41.2 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest161st lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Essentially no. Today's Beaches—East York covers almost exactly the same ground as the Beaches—East York riding it replaced, and 100% of its 2025 electors lived in it.

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Nate Erskine-Smith	Liberal	39,804	67.7%	56.2%	+11.5
Jocelyne Poirier	Conservative	13,830	23.5%	14.3%	+9.2
Shannon Devine	New Democratic	4,027	6.9%	22.4%	−15.5
Jack Pennings	Green	748	1.3%	2.7%	−1.4

3 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Diane Joseph	Independent	161	0.3%
Elizabeth Rowley	Other	146	0.2%
Steve Rutchinski	Other	39	0.1%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

The by-election of 2026-08-31Liberal hold

Tanveer Shahnawaz (Liberal) held Beaches—East York for the Liberals at the by-election of 2026-08-31 by 10,008 votes (30.2 points) with 55.8% of the vote; Shannon Devine (New Democratic) was second with 25.6%.

Elected: Tanveer Shahnawaz Liberal · 18,504 votes · 55.8%
Runner-up: Shannon Devine New Democratic · 8,496 votes · 25.6%
Margin: 10,008 votes 30.2 pts · of 33,137 valid votes
Turnout: 40.7% of 81,642 electors · 111 rejected ballots

The Liberal share here was 55.8% at the by-election of 2026-08-31 and 67.7% in the 2025 election, with 6 candidates on the ballot.

Source: Elections Canada, results validated by the returning officer, read 2026-10-08. Every candidate and the full result →

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

4,027 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 25,974-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

9 of 181

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (172) · ■ won by another party (9).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 12,988 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 22.1% of the 58,755 valid votes, 22.1 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0025,976

Liberal39,804

Conservative13,830

Still Liberal by 25,974 votes. Actual margin: 25,974.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 50.9% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 62.9%, the Conservatives 27.4%, the New Democrats 7.4% and the Greens 1.6%; in advance and special ballots, 72.8%, 19.5%, 6.3% and 1.0%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Beaches—East York, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	62.9%	72.8%	+9.9
Conservative	27.4%	19.5%	−7.9
New Democratic	7.4%	6.3%	−1.1
Green	1.6%	1.0%	−0.6

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Beaches—East York and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Beaches—East York — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/beaches-east-york/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.