The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Brandon—Souris
Federal riding · MB · No. 46001 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Grant Jackson Conservative
- 2025 result
- Conservative hold by 17,858 votes
- Turnout
- 68.7% of 67,504 electors
- Population
- 93,930 2021 census
- Area
- 19,684 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Least populous in Manitoba93,930 people, 2021 census · 3rd of 14 in Manitoba · 58th of 343 in Canada
- Width of the marginWon by 38.8 points (17,858 votes) · 51st of 343 in Canada
- Area, largest first19,684 km² · 52nd of 343 in Canada
In brief
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Grant Jackson
- Member: Procedure and House Affairs
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 7% of today's Brandon—Souris came from ridings other than the old Brandon—Souris.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
92.9%Brandon—Souris
5.8%Portage—Lisgar 9% of it kept
1.3%Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa 0% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative hold
Elected
Grant Jackson
Conservative
28,624
62.2% of valid votes
Margin
17,858
votes · +38.8 pts
Runner-up
Ghazanfar Ali Tarar
Liberal
10,766
23.4% of valid votes
Conservative 62.2% · Liberal 23.4% · New Democratic 14.4%
Turnout68.7% of 67,504 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Jackson | Conservative | 28,624 | 62.2% | 59.0% | +3.2 |
| Ghazanfar Ali Tarar | Liberal | 10,766 | 23.4% | 11.9% | +11.5 |
| Quentin Robinson | New Democratic | 6,637 | 14.4% | 20.3% | −5.9 |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
19.4 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
6,637 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 17,858-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
7 of 163
1 poll ended in an exact tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 8,930 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 19.4% of the 46,027 valid votes, 19.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative28,624
Liberal10,766
Still Conservative by 17,858 votes. Actual margin: 17,858.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 62.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative64.5%58.3%−6.2
Liberal20.9%27.5%+6.6
New Democratic14.5%14.2%−0.3
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $76,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest104th lowest of 343
- Median age is 38.8 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest89th lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 21.9% — about 78 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest118th lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 13.1% — about 76 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest145th lowest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 68.8% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest142nd lowest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.2% — about 75 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest126th lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
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The card
No. 46001MB · 2025
Brandon—Souris
Grant Jackson
- Result
- Conservative hold by 17,858
- Turnout
- 68.7%
- Population
- 93,930
- Area
- 19,684 km²
Least populous in ManitobaWidth of the marginArea, largest first
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
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