The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 46001Manitoba

Brandon—Souris

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Brandon—Souris
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Brandon—Souris is a federal riding in Manitoba. Grant Jackson (Conservative) has represented Brandon—Souris since the 2025 election. Grant Jackson (Conservative) held Brandon—Souris for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 17,858 votes (38.8 points), with 62.2% of the vote. Ghazanfar Ali Tarar (Liberal) was second with 23.4%, on a turnout of 68.7% of 67,504 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Brandon—Souris on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Brandon—Souris

Grant Jackson's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Grant Jackson

Member of Parliament for Brandon—Souris

Conservative

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Procedure and House Affairs committee

176 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on The Economy.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Brandon—Souris, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 46,027 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Grant Jackson	Conservative	28,624	62.2%
Ghazanfar Ali Tarar	Liberal	10,766	23.4%
Quentin Robinson	New Democratic	6,637	14.4%

Grant Jackson (Conservative) won Brandon—Souris on April 28, 2025 with 28,624 votes, 62.2% of the 46,027 valid votes. Ghazanfar Ali Tarar (Liberal) was second with 10,766 (23.4%), 17,858 votes and 38.8 points behind.

Of the 46,027 valid votes, Grant Jackson (Conservative) took 62.2%, Ghazanfar Ali Tarar (Liberal) 23.4% and Quentin Robinson (New Democratic) 14.4%. Turnout was 68.7% of 67,504 electors: 46,403 ballots cast, 46,027 of them valid, for 3 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 3.2 (59.0% to 62.2%), the Liberals up 11.5 (11.9% to 23.4%) and the New Democrats down 5.9 (20.3% to 14.4%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Conservative stronghold

The party first in Brandon—Souris at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative52.6%by 28.8 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative55.4%by 35.7 points over the New Democrats
2008Conservative57.7%by 40.7 points over the New Democrats
2011Conservative64.5%by 40.2 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative50.5%by 13.7 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative63.7%by 49.8 points over the New Democrats
2021Conservative59.0%by 38.8 points over the New Democrats
2025Conservative62.2%by 38.8 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	52.6%	Liberal	28.8	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	55.4%	New Democratic	35.7	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	57.7%	New Democratic	40.7	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	64.5%	New Democratic	40.2	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	50.5%	Liberal	13.7	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	63.7%	New Democratic	49.8	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	59.0%	New Democratic	38.8	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	62.2%	Liberal	38.8	official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 35.8 points over the next party. In 2025 the Conservatives took 62.2% of the vote here, 4.6 points above their average of 57.6% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (52.6%), 2006 (55.4%), 2008 (57.7%), 2011 (64.5%), 2015 (50.5%), 2019 (63.7%), 2021 (59.0%) and 2025 (62.2%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Larry Maguire, by 14,895 votes (39.1 pts)
2019 Conservative · Larry Maguire, by 20,343 votes (49.4 pts)
2015 Conservative · Larry Maguire, by 5,328 votes (13.0 pts)

In the old Brandon—Souris on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Brandon—Souris lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Brandon—Souris is

Population: 93,9302021 census
Area: 19,684km²
Density: 4.8people per km²
Electors: 67,504on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

3rd-least populous in Manitoba
93,930 people, 2021 census · 3rd of 14 in Manitoba · 58th of 343 in Canada

Median age is 38.8 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest89th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $76,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest104th lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 21.9% — about 78 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest118th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.2% — about 75 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest126th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 68.8% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest142nd lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 13.1% — about 76 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest145th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 96% of the 2025 electors in today's Brandon—Souris lived in the old Brandon—Souris; by area, 7% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

95.5%Brandon—Souris 92.9% of the area

2.8%Portage—Lisgar 5.8% of the area · 9% of it kept

1.7%Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa 1.3% of the area · 0.4% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Grant Jackson	Conservative	28,624	62.2%	59.0%	+3.2
Ghazanfar Ali Tarar	Liberal	10,766	23.4%	11.9%	+11.5
Quentin Robinson	New Democratic	6,637	14.4%	20.3%	−5.9

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

6,637 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 17,858-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

7 of 163

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (155) · ■ won by another party (7) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 8,930 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 19.4% of the 46,027 valid votes, 19.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0017,860

Conservative28,624

Liberal10,766

Still Conservative by 17,858 votes. Actual margin: 17,858.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 62.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 64.5%, the Liberals 20.9% and the New Democrats 14.5%; in advance and special ballots, 58.3%, 27.5% and 14.2%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Brandon—Souris, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	64.5%	58.3%	−6.2
Liberal	20.9%	27.5%	+6.6
New Democratic	14.5%	14.2%	−0.3

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Brandon—Souris and its 3 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Brandon—Souris — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/brandon-souris/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.