The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 46002Manitoba

Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Churchill—Keewatinook Aski
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Churchill—Keewatinook Aski is a federal riding in Manitoba. Rebecca Chartrand (Liberal) has represented Churchill—Keewatinook Aski since the 2025 election. Rebecca Chartrand (Liberal) took Churchill—Keewatinook Aski from the New Democrats in the 2025 election by 3,433 votes (16.8 points), with 45.5% of the vote. Niki Ashton (NDP) was second with 28.7%, on a turnout of 41.5% of 50,006 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Churchill—Keewatinook Aski on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

Rebecca Chartrand's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Rebecca Chartrand

Member of Parliament for Churchill—Keewatinook Aski

Liberal

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Minister of Northern and Arctic Affairs
Minister responsible for the Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency

60 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Northern Affairs.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal gain from the New Democrats

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Churchill—Keewatinook Aski, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 20,469 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Rebecca Chartrand	Liberal	9,313	45.5%
Niki Ashton	New Democratic	5,880	28.7%
Lachlan De Nardi	Conservative	4,927	24.1%
Dylan Young	People's Party	349	1.7%

Rebecca Chartrand (Liberal) won Churchill—Keewatinook Aski on April 28, 2025 with 9,313 votes, 45.5% of the 20,469 valid votes. Niki Ashton (New Democratic) was second with 5,880 (28.7%), 3,433 votes and 16.8 points behind.

Of the 20,469 valid votes, Rebecca Chartrand (Liberal) took 45.5%, Niki Ashton (New Democratic) 28.7%, Lachlan De Nardi (Conservative) 24.1% and Dylan Young (People's Party) 1.7%. Turnout was 41.5% of 50,006 electors: 20,734 ballots cast, 20,469 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 20.6 (24.9% to 45.5%), the New Democrats down 13.4 (42.1% to 28.7%), the Conservatives up 0.2 (23.9% to 24.1%) and the People's Party down 3.3 (5.0% to 1.7%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Churchill—Keewatinook Aski at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004New Democratic41.8%by 5.0 points over the Liberals
2006changed handsLiberal37.7%by 8.4 points over the New Democrats
2008changed handsNew Democratic45.2%by 18.5 points over the Liberals
2011New Democratic48.7%by 18.7 points over the Conservatives
2015New Democratic44.8%by 2.9 points over the Liberals
2019New Democratic50.1%by 26.5 points over the Liberals
2021New Democratic42.1%by 17.2 points over the Liberals
2025changed handsLiberal45.5%by 16.8 points over the New Democrats

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	New Democratic	41.8%	Liberal	5.0	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	37.7%	New Democratic	8.4	carried, our estimate
2008	New Democratic	45.2%	Liberal	18.5	carried, our estimate
2011	New Democratic	48.7%	Conservative	18.7	carried, our estimate
2015	New Democratic	44.8%	Liberal	2.9	carried, our estimate
2019	New Democratic	50.1%	Liberal	26.5	carried, our estimate
2021	New Democratic	42.1%	Liberal	17.2	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	45.5%	New Democratic	16.8	official result

The NDP were first at six of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Liberals at two; it changed hands three times. In 2025 the Liberals took 45.5% of the vote here, 15.4 points above their average of 30.1% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the NDP were first here in 2004 (41.8%), 2008 (45.2%), 2011 (48.7%), 2015 (44.8%), 2019 (50.1%) and 2021 (42.1%) and the Liberals in 2006 (37.7%) and 2025 (45.5%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 New Democratic · Niki Ashton, by 3,118 votes (17.4 pts)
2019 New Democratic · Niki Ashton, by 6,303 votes (26.6 pts)
2015 New Democratic · Niki Ashton, by 912 votes (3.0 pts)

In the old Churchill—Keewatinook Aski on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Churchill—Keewatinook Aski lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Churchill—Keewatinook Aski is

Population: 82,7452021 census
Area: 494,572km²
Density: 0.17people per km²
Electors: 50,006on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

3rd-lowest turnout in Canada
41.5% of 50,006 electors voted · 3rd of 343
4th-largest by area in Canada
494,572 km² · 4th of 343
3rd-youngest median age
Median age 28.4, 3rd lowest of 343 (Median age, 2021 census)

Median age is 28.4 — about 68 percent of the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest3rd lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 13.2% — about 47 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest7th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 40.6% — about 57 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest25th lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.6% — about 37 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest30th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 3.3% — about 19 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest34th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $76,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest104th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Essentially no. Today's Churchill—Keewatinook Aski covers almost exactly the same ground as the Churchill—Keewatinook Aski riding it replaced, and 99.5% of its 2025 electors lived in it.

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Rebecca Chartrand	Liberal	9,313	45.5%	24.9%	+20.6
Niki Ashton	New Democratic	5,880	28.7%	42.1%	−13.4
Lachlan De Nardi	Conservative	4,927	24.1%	23.9%	+0.2
Dylan Young	People's	349	1.7%	5.0%	−3.3

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

4,927 votes

Conservative took more than the 3,433-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.

Election-day polls won by others

62 of 115

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (53) · ■ won by another party (62).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 1,717 voters switching from Liberal to New Democratic — 8.4% of the 20,469 valid votes, 8.4 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 003,434

Liberal9,313

New Democratic5,880

Still Liberal by 3,433 votes. Actual margin: 3,433.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 69.3% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 47.3%, the New Democrats 28.2% and the Conservatives 22.8%; in advance and special ballots, 41.4%, 29.9% and 26.9%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Churchill—Keewatinook Aski, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	47.3%	41.4%	−5.9
New Democratic	28.2%	29.9%	+1.7
Conservative	22.8%	26.9%	+4.1

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Churchill—Keewatinook Aski and its 7 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Churchill—Keewatinook Aski — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/churchill-keewatinook-aski/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.