The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 48012Alberta

Calgary Shepard

Calgary Shepard is a federal riding in Alberta. Tom Kmiec (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2015) represents Calgary Shepard. Tom Kmiec (Conservative) held Calgary Shepard for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 25,942 votes (39.8 points), with 68.0% of the vote. Gul Khan (Liberal) was second with 28.2%, on a turnout of 72.0% of 91,069 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Calgary Shepard on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Calgary Shepard

Tom Kmiec's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Tom Kmiec

Member of Parliament for Calgary Shepard

Conservative

MP since 2015-10-19 · 4 terms

Co-Chair
Co-Chair
Deputy Speaker and Chair of Committees of the Whole

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Calgary Shepard, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 65,249 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Tom Kmiec	Conservative	44,363	68.0%
Gul Khan	Liberal	18,421	28.2%
Tory Tomblin	New Democratic	1,780	2.7%
Others (2)		685	1.0%

Tom Kmiec (Conservative) won Calgary Shepard on April 28, 2025 with 44,363 votes, 68.0% of the 65,249 valid votes. Gul Khan (Liberal) was second with 18,421 (28.2%), 25,942 votes and 39.8 points behind.

Of the 65,249 valid votes, Tom Kmiec (Conservative) took 68.0%, Gul Khan (Liberal) 28.2% and Tory Tomblin (New Democratic) 2.7%; the 2 other candidates took 1.0% together. Turnout was 72.0% of 91,069 electors: 65,543 ballots cast, 65,249 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 7.1 (60.9% to 68.0%), the Liberals up 14.3 (13.9% to 28.2%) and the New Democrats down 13.3 (16.0% to 2.7%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Conservative stronghold

The party first in Calgary Shepard at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative71.1%by 54.8 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative75.3%by 65.0 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative74.0%by 63.8 points over the Greens
2011Conservative76.3%by 66.1 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative65.9%by 41.2 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative75.0%by 63.9 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative60.9%by 44.9 points over the New Democrats
2025Conservative68.0%by 39.8 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	71.1%	Liberal	54.8	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	75.3%	Liberal	65.0	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	74.0%	Green	63.8	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	76.3%	New Democratic	66.1	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	65.9%	Liberal	41.2	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	75.0%	Liberal	63.9	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	60.9%	New Democratic	44.9	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	68.0%	Liberal	39.8	official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 54.9 points over the next party. In 2025 the Conservatives took 68.0% of the vote here, 3.2 points below their average of 71.2% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (71.1%), 2006 (75.3%), 2008 (74.0%), 2011 (76.3%), 2015 (65.9%), 2019 (75.0%), 2021 (60.9%) and 2025 (68.0%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Tom Kmiec, by 32,308 votes (43.9 pts)
2019 Conservative · Tom Kmiec, by 49,970 votes (63.9 pts)
2015 Conservative · Tom Kmiec, by 27,327 votes (41.2 pts)

In the old Calgary Shepard on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Calgary Shepard lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Calgary Shepard is

Population: 115,0852021 census
Area: 112km²
Density: 1,028people per km²
Electors: 91,069on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

Won every election-day poll
All 163 election-day polls went to the winner · one of 15 of 343

Median total household income is $120,000 — about 1.4 times the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest19th highest of 343
Median age is 35.6 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest26th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 81.6% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest45th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 38.1% — about 1.4 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest113th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 26.5% — about 1.5 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest121st highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.3% — about 81 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest141st lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 100% of the 2025 electors in today's Calgary Shepard lived in the old Calgary Shepard; by area, 1% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Calgary Shepard 99.4% of the area · 60% of it kept

0.0%Bow River 0.3% of the area · under 0.1% of it kept

0.0%Foothills 0.2% of the area · under 0.1% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Tom Kmiec	Conservative	44,363	68.0%	60.9%	+7.1
Gul Khan	Liberal	18,421	28.2%	13.9%	+14.3
Tory Tomblin	New Democratic	1,780	2.7%	16.0%	−13.3

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Donald Legere	People's	383	0.6%
Robert Frasch	Green	302	0.5%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,780 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 25,942-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

0 of 163

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (163) · ■ won by another party (0).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 12,972 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 19.9% of the 65,249 valid votes, 19.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0025,944

Conservative44,363

Liberal18,421

Still Conservative by 25,942 votes. Actual margin: 25,942.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 54.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 68.1%, the Liberals 27.7% and the New Democrats 3.0%; in advance and special ballots, 67.9%, 28.8% and 2.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Calgary Shepard, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	68.1%	67.9%	−0.2
Liberal	27.7%	28.8%	+1.1
New Democratic	3.0%	2.5%	−0.5

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Calgary Shepard and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Calgary Shepard — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/calgary-shepard/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.