The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Calgary Shepard
Federal riding · AB · No. 48012 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Tom Kmiec Conservative
- 2025 result
- Conservative hold by 25,942 votes
- Turnout
- 72.0% of 91,069 electors
- Population
- 115,085 2021 census
- Area
- 112 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Won every election-day pollAll 163 election-day polls went to the winner · one of 15 of 343
- Width of the marginWon by 39.8 points (25,942 votes) · 47th of 343 in Canada
- Turnout72.0% of 91,069 electors voted · 102nd of 343 in Canada
In brief
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Tom Kmiec
- Co-Chair
- Co-Chair
- Deputy Speaker and Chair of Committees of the Whole
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 1% of today's Calgary Shepard came from ridings other than the old Calgary Shepard.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
99.4%Calgary Shepard 60% of it kept
0.3%Bow River 0% of it kept
0.2%Foothills 0% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative hold
Elected
Tom Kmiec
Conservative
44,363
68.0% of valid votes
Margin
25,942
votes · +39.8 pts
Runner-up
Gul Khan
Liberal
18,421
28.2% of valid votes
Conservative 68.0% · Liberal 28.2% · New Democratic 2.7%
Turnout72.0% of 91,069 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Kmiec | Conservative | 44,363 | 68.0% | 60.9% | +7.1 |
| Gul Khan | Liberal | 18,421 | 28.2% | 13.9% | +14.3 |
| Tory Tomblin | New Democratic | 1,780 | 2.7% | 16.0% | −13.3 |
2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
| Donald Legere | People's | 383 | 0.6% |
| Robert Frasch | Green | 302 | 0.5% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
19.9 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
1,780 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 25,942-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
0 of 163
No poll ended in a tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 12,972 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 19.9% of the 65,249 valid votes, 19.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative44,363
Liberal18,421
Still Conservative by 25,942 votes. Actual margin: 25,942.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 54.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative68.1%67.9%−0.2
Liberal27.7%28.8%+1.1
New Democratic3.0%2.5%−0.5
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $120,000 — about 1.4 times the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest19th highest of 343
- Median age is 35.6 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest26th lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 38.1% — about 1.4 times the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest113th highest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 26.5% — about 1.5 times the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest121st highest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 81.6% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest45th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.3% — about 81 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest141st lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
The card
No. 48012AB · 2025
Calgary Shepard
Tom Kmiec
- Result
- Conservative hold by 25,942
- Turnout
- 72.0%
- Population
- 115,085
- Area
- 112 km²
Won every election-day pollWidth of the marginTurnout
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.