The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 12004Nova Scotia
Cumberland—
Cumberland—
Who represents Cumberland—
Alana Hirtle
Member of Parliament for Cumberland—
Liberal
MP since · first term
- Canadian Heritage committee
- Veterans Affairs committee
36 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Use of Federal Lands for Veterans.
The 2025 result: Liberal gain from the Conservatives
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Cumberland—Colchester, April 28, 2025
The figures
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alana Hirtle | Liberal | 23,929 | 48.3% |
| Stephen Ellis | Conservative | 22,701 | 45.8% |
| Larry Duchesne | New Democratic | 1,873 | 3.8% |
| Kelly-Ann Callaghan | Green | 694 | 1.4% |
| Other (1) | 333 | 0.7% |
Alana Hirtle (Liberal) won Cumberland—
Of the 49,530 valid votes, Alana Hirtle (Liberal) took 48.3%, Stephen Ellis (Conservative) 45.8%, Larry Duchesne (New Democratic) 3.8% and Kelly-Ann Callaghan (Green) 1.4%; one other candidate took 0.7%. Turnout was 70.4% of 70,762 electors: 49,840 ballots cast, 49,530 of them valid, for 5 candidates.
Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 14.3 (34.0% to 48.3%), the Conservatives up 0.1 (45.7% to 45.8%), the New Democrats down 8.5 (12.3% to 3.8%) and the Greens down 1.2 (2.6% to 1.4%), in points of the valid votes.
2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.
Since 2004: no party has held it
The party first in Cumberland—Colchester at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries
- 2004Conservative50.5%by 24.0 points over the Liberals
- 2006Conservative52.0%by 28.2 points over the Liberals
- 2008changed handsIndependent70.4%by 58.1 points over the New Democrats
- 2011changed handsConservative52.5%by 29.2 points over the New Democrats
- 2015changed handsLiberal63.7%by 37.2 points over the Conservatives
- 2019†Liberal36.7%by 1.0 point over the Conservatives
- 2021changed handsConservative45.7%by 11.8 points over the Liberals
- 2025changed handsLiberal48.3%by 2.5 points over the Conservatives
The figures
| Year | First | Share | Second | Margin (pts) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Conservative | 50.5% | Liberal | 24.0 | carried, our estimate |
| 2006 | Conservative | 52.0% | Liberal | 28.2 | carried, our estimate |
| 2008 | Independent | 70.4% | New Democratic | 58.1 | carried, our estimate |
| 2011 | Conservative | 52.5% | New Democratic | 29.2 | carried, our estimate |
| 2015 | Liberal | 63.7% | Conservative | 37.2 | carried, our estimate |
| 2019† | Liberal | 36.7% | Conservative | 1.0 | carried, our estimate |
| 2021 | Conservative | 45.7% | Liberal | 11.8 | transposed by Elections Canada |
| 2025 | Liberal | 48.3% | Conservative | 2.5 | official result |
The Conservatives were first at four of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Liberals at three and an independent at one; it changed hands five times. In 2025 the Liberals took 48.3% of the vote here, 18.1 points above their average of 30.2% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.
On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (50.5%), 2006 (52.0%), 2011 (52.5%) and 2021 (45.7%), an independent in 2008 (70.4%) and the Liberals in 2015 (63.7%), 2019 (36.7%) and 2025 (48.3%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.
A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2019 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.
- 2021 Conservative · Stephen Ellis, by 4,779 votes (11.8 pts)
- 2019 Liberal · Lenore Zann, by 453 votes (1.0 pts)
- 2015 Liberal · Bill Casey, by 17,270 votes (37.2 pts)
In the old Cumberland—Colchester on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Cumberland—Colchester lived in; Elections Canada's official results.
What kind of place Cumberland—
- Population
- 82,0152021 census
- Area
- 11,078km²
- Density
- 7.4people per km²
- Electors
- 70,762on the 2025 lists
- 2nd-closest race in Nova ScotiaWon by 1,228 votes (2.5 pts) · 2nd of 11 in Nova Scotia · 25th of 343 in Canada
- 2nd-lowest turnout in Nova Scotia70.4% of 70,762 electors voted · 2nd of 11 in Nova Scotia · 200th of 343 in Canada
- Changed hands in 2025One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (2 of 11 in Nova Scotia)
- Median age is 49.6 — about 1.2 times the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest28th highest of 343
- Median total household income is $63,200 — about 75 percent of the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest31st lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 4.0% — about 23 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest43rd lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 19.0% — about 67 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest79th lowest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.0% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest101st lowest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 71.0% — about the same as the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest168th lowest of 343
2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.
IDid this riding change?
Essentially no. Today's Cumberland—Colchester covers almost exactly the same ground as the Cumberland—Colchester riding it replaced, and 100% of its 2025 electors lived in it.
IIThe 2025 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alana Hirtle | Liberal | 23,929 | 48.3% | 34.0% | +14.3 |
| Stephen Ellis | Conservative | 22,701 | 45.8% | 45.7% | +0.1 |
| Larry Duchesne | New Democratic | 1,873 | 3.8% | 12.3% | −8.5 |
| Kelly-Ann Callaghan | Green | 694 | 1.4% | 2.6% | −1.2 |
1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote
| Paul Church | People's | 333 | 0.7% |
IIIHow close was it, really
It would have taken 615 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 1.2% of the 49,530 valid votes, 1.3 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 51.6% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots. On election day alone, the Conservatives led here — the seat was decided by ballots cast before the day.
On election day the Liberals took 42.5%, the Conservatives 50.4%, the New Democrats 4.4% and the Greens 1.8%; in advance and special ballots, 54.5%, 41.0%, 3.1% and 1.0%, in that order.
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Cumberland—Colchester, April 28, 2025
The figures
| Party | Election day | Advance and special | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 42.5% | 54.5% | +12.0 |
| Conservative | 50.4% | 41.0% | −9.4 |
| New Democratic | 4.4% | 3.1% | −1.3 |
| Green | 1.8% | 1.0% | −0.8 |