The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 13003New Brunswick
Fredericton—
Fredericton—
Who represents Fredericton—
David Myles
Member of Parliament for Fredericton—
Liberal
MP since · first term
- Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Canadian Identity and Culture and Minister responsible for Official Languages and to the Secretary of State (Nature)
- Canadian Heritage committee
- Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
40 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Opposition Motion—Funding of the Cultural Sector.
The 2025 result: Liberal hold
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Fredericton—Oromocto, April 28, 2025
The figures
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Myles | Liberal | 30,750 | 61.3% |
| Brian Macdonald | Conservative | 16,200 | 32.3% |
| Pam Allen-Leblanc | Green | 1,568 | 3.1% |
| Nicki Lyons-MacFarlane | New Democratic | 908 | 1.8% |
| Others (4) | 743 | 1.5% |
David Myles (Liberal) won Fredericton—
Of the 50,169 valid votes, David Myles (Liberal) took 61.3%, Brian Macdonald (Conservative) 32.3%, Pam Allen-Leblanc (Green) 3.1% and Nicki Lyons-MacFarlane (New Democratic) 1.8%; the 4 other candidates took 1.5% together. Turnout was 75.4% of 66,852 electors: 50,412 ballots cast, 50,169 of them valid, for 8 candidates.
Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 23.8 (37.5% to 61.3%), the Conservatives down 2.0 (34.3% to 32.3%), the Greens down 9.7 (12.8% to 3.1%) and the New Democrats down 11.1 (12.9% to 1.8%), in points of the valid votes.
2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.
Since 2004: no party has held it
The party first in Fredericton—Oromocto at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries
- 2004Liberal46.6%by 12.5 points over the Conservatives
- 2006Liberal41.6%by 6.2 points over the Conservatives
- 2008changed handsConservative43.3%by 12.3 points over the Liberals
- 2011Conservative49.0%by 25.4 points over the New Democrats
- 2015changed handsLiberal49.1%by 20.0 points over the Conservatives
- 2019†changed handsGreen32.1%by 0.1 points over the Conservatives
- 2021changed handsLiberal37.5%by 3.3 points over the Conservatives
- 2025Liberal61.3%by 29.0 points over the Conservatives
The figures
| Year | First | Share | Second | Margin (pts) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Liberal | 46.6% | Conservative | 12.5 | carried, our estimate |
| 2006 | Liberal | 41.6% | Conservative | 6.2 | carried, our estimate |
| 2008 | Conservative | 43.3% | Liberal | 12.3 | carried, our estimate |
| 2011 | Conservative | 49.0% | New Democratic | 25.4 | carried, our estimate |
| 2015 | Liberal | 49.1% | Conservative | 20.0 | carried, our estimate |
| 2019† | Green | 32.1% | Conservative | 0.1 | carried, our estimate |
| 2021 | Liberal | 37.5% | Conservative | 3.3 | transposed by Elections Canada |
| 2025 | Liberal | 61.3% | Conservative | 29.0 | official result |
The Liberals were first at five of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Conservatives at two and the Greens at one; it changed hands four times. In 2025 the Liberals took 61.3% of the vote here, 24.8 points above their average of 36.5% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.
On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (46.6%), 2006 (41.6%), 2015 (49.1%), 2021 (37.5%) and 2025 (61.3%), the Conservatives in 2008 (43.3%) and 2011 (49.0%) and the Greens in 2019 (32.1%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.
A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2019 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.
- 2021 Liberal · Jenica Atwin, by 502 votes (1.1 pts)
- 2019 Green · Jenica Atwin, by 1,629 votes (3.3 pts)
- 2015 Liberal · Matt DeCourcey, by 9,736 votes (20.9 pts)
In Fredericton on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Fredericton—Oromocto lived in; Elections Canada's official results.
What kind of place Fredericton—
- Population
- 84,9902021 census
- Area
- 289km²
- Density
- 294people per km²
- Electors
- 66,852on the 2025 lists
- Most candidates on the ballot in New Brunswick8 candidates stood · 1st of 10 in New Brunswick · 11th of 343 in Canada
- 2nd-smallest by area in New Brunswick289 km² · 2nd of 10 in New Brunswick · 166th of 343 in Canada
- 3rd-widest margin in New BrunswickWon by 29.0 points (14,550 votes) · 3rd of 10 in New Brunswick · 89th of 343 in Canada
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 42.3% — about 1.5 times the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest82nd highest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 59.7% — about 84 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest85th lowest of 343
- Median age is 39.2 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest96th lowest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 7.3% — about 4.6 times the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest97th highest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 10.4% — about 60 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest121st lowest of 343
- Median total household income is $78,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest125th lowest of 343
2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 92% of the 2025 electors in today's Fredericton—Oromocto lived in the old Fredericton; by area, 20% of the riding came from other ridings.
IIThe 2025 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Myles | Liberal | 30,750 | 61.3% | 37.5% | +23.8 |
| Brian Macdonald | Conservative | 16,200 | 32.3% | 34.3% | −2.0 |
| Pam Allen-Leblanc | Green | 1,568 | 3.1% | 12.8% | −9.7 |
| Nicki Lyons-MacFarlane | New Democratic | 908 | 1.8% | 12.9% | −11.1 |
4 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
| Dominic Cardy | Other | 345 | 0.7% |
| Heather Michaud | People's | 208 | 0.4% |
| June Patterson | Other | 146 | 0.3% |
| Brandon Ellis | Other | 44 | 0.1% |
IIIHow close was it, really
It would have taken 7,276 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 14.5% of the 50,169 valid votes, 14.5 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 42.3% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
On election day the Liberals took 56.2%, the Conservatives 35.6%, the Greens 4.0%, the New Democrats 2.3% and the others 1.3%; in advance and special ballots, 65.0%, 29.9%, 2.5%, 1.4% and 0.9%, in that order.
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Fredericton—Oromocto, April 28, 2025
The figures
| Party | Election day | Advance and special | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 56.2% | 65.0% | +8.8 |
| Conservative | 35.6% | 29.9% | −5.7 |
| Green | 4.0% | 2.5% | −1.5 |
| New Democratic | 2.3% | 1.4% | −0.9 |
| Other | 1.3% | 0.9% | −0.4 |