The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 13006New Brunswick

Miramichi—Grand Lake

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Miramichi—Grand Lake
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Miramichi—Grand Lake is a federal riding in New Brunswick. Mike Dawson (Conservative) has represented Miramichi—Grand Lake since the 2025 election. Mike Dawson (Conservative) held Miramichi—Grand Lake for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 384 votes (1.1 points), with 48.2% of the vote. Lisa Harris (Liberal) was second with 47.1%, on a turnout of 73.7% of 52,312 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Miramichi—Grand Lake on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Miramichi—Grand Lake

Mike Dawson's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Mike Dawson

Member of Parliament for Miramichi—Grand Lake

Conservative

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Fisheries and Oceans committee

38 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Resumption of Debate on Address in Reply.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Miramichi—Grand Lake, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 38,257 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Mike Dawson	Conservative	18,421	48.2%
Lisa Harris	Liberal	18,037	47.1%
Josh Floyd	New Democratic	968	2.5%
Matthew Ian Clark	Green	831	2.2%

Mike Dawson (Conservative) won Miramichi—Grand Lake on April 28, 2025 with 18,421 votes, 48.2% of the 38,257 valid votes. Lisa Harris (Liberal) was second with 18,037 (47.1%), 384 votes and 1.1 points behind.

Of the 38,257 valid votes, Mike Dawson (Conservative) took 48.2%, Lisa Harris (Liberal) 47.1%, Josh Floyd (New Democratic) 2.5% and Matthew Ian Clark (Green) 2.2%. Turnout was 73.7% of 52,312 electors: 38,559 ballots cast, 38,257 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 3.1 (45.1% to 48.2%), the Liberals up 10.4 (36.7% to 47.1%), the New Democrats down 4.8 (7.3% to 2.5%) and the Greens down 2.4 (4.6% to 2.2%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Miramichi—Grand Lake at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal48.0%by 17.9 points over the Conservatives
2006Liberal42.3%by 7.9 points over the Conservatives
2008changed handsConservative41.7%by 5.4 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative50.8%by 27.5 points over the New Democrats
2015changed handsLiberal47.3%by 13.3 points over the Conservatives
2019†Liberal36.1%by 0.5 points over the Conservatives
2021changed handsConservative45.1%by 8.4 points over the Liberals
2025Conservative48.2%by 1.1 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	48.0%	Conservative	17.9	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	42.3%	Conservative	7.9	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	41.7%	Liberal	5.4	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	50.8%	New Democratic	27.5	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	47.3%	Conservative	13.3	carried, our estimate
2019†	Liberal	36.1%	Conservative	0.5	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	45.1%	Liberal	8.4	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	48.2%	Liberal	1.1	official result

The Liberals were first at four of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Conservatives at four; it changed hands three times. In 2025 the Conservatives took 48.2% of the vote here, 9.4 points above their average of 38.8% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (48.0%), 2006 (42.3%), 2015 (47.3%) and 2019 (36.1%) and the Conservatives in 2008 (41.7%), 2011 (50.8%), 2021 (45.1%) and 2025 (48.2%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2019 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Jake Stewart, by 1,456 votes (4.4 pts)
2019 Liberal · Pat Finnigan, by 370 votes (1.1 pts)
2015 Liberal · Pat Finnigan, by 4,726 votes (13.0 pts)

In the old Miramichi—Grand Lake on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Miramichi—Grand Lake lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Miramichi—Grand Lake is

Population: 59,7252021 census
Area: 19,782km²
Density: 3.0people per km²
Electors: 52,312on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

8th-closest race in Canada
Won by 384 votes (1.1 pts) · 8th of 343
10th-least populous in Canada
59,725 people, 2021 census · 10th of 343
Largest by area in New Brunswick
19,782 km² · 1st of 10 in New Brunswick · 51st of 343 in Canada

Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 13.5% — about 48 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest11th lowest of 343
Median age is 50.8 — about 1.2 times the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest19th highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 2.6% — about 15 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest24th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $63,200 — about 75 percent of the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest31st lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 77.7% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest86th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 18.6% — about 11.6 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest88th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 93% of the 2025 electors in today's Miramichi—Grand Lake lived in the old Miramichi—Grand Lake; by area, 9% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

92.8%Miramichi—Grand Lake 91.4% of the area · 99% of it kept

5.6%Fredericton 5.8% of the area · 70% of it kept

1.6%Fundy Royal 2.6% of the area · 6% of it kept

0.0%Madawaska—Restigouche 0.2% of the area · 0.4% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Mike Dawson	Conservative	18,421	48.2%	45.1%	+3.1
Lisa Harris	Liberal	18,037	47.1%	36.7%	+10.4
Josh Floyd	New Democratic	968	2.5%	7.3%	−4.8
Matthew Ian Clark	Green	831	2.2%	4.6%	−2.4

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

968 votes

New Democratic took more than the 384-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.

Election-day polls won by others

43 of 145

3 polls ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (99) · ■ won by another party (43) · ▨ tied (3).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 193 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 0.5% of the 38,257 valid votes, 0.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 00386

Conservative18,421

Liberal18,037

Still Conservative by 384 votes. Actual margin: 384.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 53.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 43.7%, the Conservatives 51.0%, the New Democrats 2.8% and the Greens 2.5%; in advance and special ballots, 51.1%, 44.9%, 2.2% and 1.8%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Miramichi—Grand Lake, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	43.7%	51.1%	+7.4
Conservative	51.0%	44.9%	−6.1
New Democratic	2.8%	2.2%	−0.6
Green	2.5%	1.8%	−0.7

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Miramichi—Grand Lake and its 7 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Miramichi—Grand Lake — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/miramichi-grand-lake/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.