The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Miramichi—Grand Lake
Federal riding · NB · No. 13006 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Mike Dawson Conservative
- 2025 result
- Conservative hold by 384 votes
- Turnout
- 73.7% of 52,312 electors
- Population
- 59,725 2021 census
- Area
- 19,782 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Closest race in CanadaWon by 384 votes (1.1 pts) · 8th of 343
- Least populous in Canada59,725 people, 2021 census · 10th of 343
- Largest by area in New Brunswick19,782 km² · 1st of 10 in New Brunswick · 51st of 343 in Canada
In brief
- Mike Dawson held the seat for the Conservatives by 384 votes (+1.1 points).
- 9% of today's riding was drawn from other ridings in 2023.
- Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 53.7% of votes were cast on the day.
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is the 11th lowest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Mike Dawson
- Member: Fisheries and Oceans
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 9% of today's Miramichi—Grand Lake came from ridings other than the old Miramichi—Grand Lake.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
91.4%Miramichi—Grand Lake 99% of it kept
5.8%Fredericton 70% of it kept
2.6%Fundy Royal 6% of it kept
0.2%Madawaska—Restigouche 0% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative hold
Elected
Mike Dawson
Conservative
18,421
48.2% of valid votes
Margin
384
votes · +1.1 pts
Runner-up
Lisa Harris
Liberal
18,037
47.1% of valid votes
Conservative 48.2% · Liberal 47.1% · New Democratic 2.5% · Green 2.2%
Turnout73.7% of 52,312 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Dawson | Conservative | 18,421 | 48.2% | 45.1% | +3.1 |
| Lisa Harris | Liberal | 18,037 | 47.1% | 36.7% | +10.4 |
| Josh Floyd | New Democratic | 968 | 2.5% | 7.3% | −4.8 |
| Matthew Ian Clark | Green | 831 | 2.2% | 4.6% | −2.4 |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
0.6 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
968 votes
New Democratic took more than the 384-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
43 of 145
3 polls ended in an exact tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 193 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 0.5% of the 38,257 valid votes, 0.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative18,421
Liberal18,037
Still Conservative by 384 votes. Actual margin: 384.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 53.7% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative51.0%44.9%−6.1
Liberal43.7%51.1%+7.4
New Democratic2.8%2.2%−0.6
Green2.5%1.8%−0.7
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $63,200 — about 75 percent of the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest31st lowest of 343
- Median age is 50.8 — about 1.2 times the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest19th highest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 13.5% — about 48 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest11th lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 2.6% — about 15 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest24th lowest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 77.7% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest86th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 18.6% — about 11.6 times the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest88th highest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
The card
No. 13006NB · 2025
Miramichi—Grand Lake
Mike Dawson
- Result
- Conservative hold by 384
- Turnout
- 73.7%
- Population
- 59,725
- Area
- 19,782 km²
Closest race in CanadaLeast populous in CanadaLargest by area in New Brunswick
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.