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The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35033Ontario

Guelph

Guelph is a federal riding in Ontario. Dominique O'Rourke (Liberal) has represented Guelph since the 2025 election. Dominique O'Rourke (Liberal) held Guelph for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 15,936 votes (24.0 points), with 54.7% of the vote. Gurvir Khaira (Conservative) was second with 30.7%, on a turnout of 72.8% of 92,031 electors. Member as of .

Wellington—Halton Hills North · ConservativeGuelph
Fig. 1 — Guelph on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on . Open it on the board →

Who represents Guelph

LDominique O'Rourke
Dominique O'Rourke's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Dominique O'Rourke

Member of Parliament for Guelph

Liberal

MP since · first term

  • Industry and Technology committee
  • Transport, Infrastructure and Communities committee

137 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Canada's Auto Industry.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Guelph, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Guelph, April 28, 2025Of the 66,593 valid votes, Dominique O'Rourke (Liberal) took 54.7%, Gurvir Khaira (Conservative) 30.7%, Anne-Marie Zajdlik (Green) 10.2% and Janice Folk-Dawson (New Democratic) 3.2%; the 4 other candidates took 1.2% together.2025Turnout 72.8% of 92,031 electorsDominique O'RourkeLiberal54.7% · 36,40615,936 votes ahead · 23.9 ptsGurvir KhairaConservative30.7% · 20,470Anne-Marie ZajdlikGreen10.2% · 6,779Janice Folk-DawsonNew Democratic3.2% · 2,129Others (4)1.2% · 809050%100%
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Guelph, April 28, 2025Of the 66,593 valid votes, Dominique O'Rourke (Liberal) took 54.7%, Gurvir Khaira (Conservative) 30.7%, Anne-Marie Zajdlik (Green) 10.2% and Janice Folk-Dawson (New Democratic) 3.2%; the 4 other candidates took 1.2% together.2025Turnout 72.8% of 92,031 electorsDominique O'RourkeLiberal54.7% · 36,40615,936 votes ahead · 23.9 ptsGurvir KhairaConservative30.7% · 20,470Anne-Marie ZajdlikGreen10.2% · 6,779Janice Folk-DawsonNew Democratic3.2% · 2,129Others (4)1.2% · 809050%100%
Shares of the 66,593 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Dominique O'RourkeLiberal36,40654.7%
Gurvir KhairaConservative20,47030.7%
Anne-Marie ZajdlikGreen6,77910.2%
Janice Folk-DawsonNew Democratic2,1293.2%
Others (4)8091.2%

Dominique O'Rourke (Liberal) won Guelph on with 36,406 votes, 54.7% of the 66,593 valid votes. Gurvir Khaira (Conservative) was second with 20,470 (30.7%), 15,936 votes and 24.0 points behind.

Of the 66,593 valid votes, Dominique O'Rourke (Liberal) took 54.7%, Gurvir Khaira (Conservative) 30.7%, Anne-Marie Zajdlik (Green) 10.2% and Janice Folk-Dawson (New Democratic) 3.2%; the 4 other candidates took 1.2% together. Turnout was 72.8% of 92,031 electors: 66,968 ballots cast, 66,593 of them valid, for 8 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 13.6 (41.1% to 54.7%), the Conservatives up 7.4 (23.3% to 30.7%), the Greens up 2.4 (7.8% to 10.2%) and the New Democrats down 18.7 (21.9% to 3.2%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: held by the Liberals

The party first in Guelph at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

  1. 2004Liberal44.6%by 18.4 points over the Conservatives
  2. 2006Liberal38.3%by 8.4 points over the Conservatives
  3. 2008Liberal32.2%by 2.8 points over the Conservatives
  4. 2011Liberal43.2%by 10.2 points over the Conservatives
  5. 2015Liberal49.1%by 22.8 points over the Conservatives
  6. 2019Liberal40.4%by 14.9 points over the Greens
  7. 2021Liberal41.1%by 17.8 points over the Conservatives
  8. 2025Liberal54.7%by 24.0 points over the Conservatives
Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.
The figures
YearFirstShareSecondMargin (pts)Basis
2004Liberal44.6%Conservative18.4carried, our estimate
2006Liberal38.3%Conservative8.4carried, our estimate
2008Liberal32.2%Conservative2.8carried, our estimate
2011Liberal43.2%Conservative10.2carried, our estimate
2015Liberal49.1%Conservative22.8carried, our estimate
2019Liberal40.4%Green14.9carried, our estimate
2021Liberal41.1%Conservative17.8transposed by Elections Canada
2025Liberal54.7%Conservative24.0official result

The Liberals were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 14.9 points over the next party, short of the 20 a stronghold needs. In 2025 the Liberals took 54.7% of the vote here, 13.4 points above their average of 41.3% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021. The Liberals have been first here at every general election since 1993, eleven in a row.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (44.6%), 2006 (38.3%), 2008 (32.2%), 2011 (43.2%), 2015 (49.1%), 2019 (40.4%), 2021 (41.1%) and 2025 (54.7%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 23 of the 343 ridings are held without being strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025
  • 2021 Liberal · Lloyd Longfield, by 12,587 votes (18.0 pts)
  • 2019 Liberal · Lloyd Longfield, by 11,261 votes (14.9 pts)
  • 2015 Liberal · Lloyd Longfield, by 15,896 votes (22.8 pts)

In the old Guelph on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Guelph lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Guelph is

Population
118,6902021 census
Area
68km²
Density
1,738people per km²
Electors
92,031on the 2025 lists
  • Median age is 38.8 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
    highestlowest89th lowest of 343
  • Share of households that own their home is 63.1% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.
    highestlowest99th lowest of 343
  • Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 38.5% — about 1.4 times the median riding's 28.2%.
    highestlowest110th highest of 343
  • Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.1% — about 69 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
    highestlowest112th lowest of 343
  • Median total household income is $89,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.
    highestlowest122nd highest of 343
  • Share who are immigrants is 22.8% — about 1.3 times the median riding's 17.3%.
    highestlowest139th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Guelph, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Guelph, but it is only 74% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding
100.0%Guelph 99.7% of the area · 74% of it kept
0.0%Wellington—Halton Hills 0.3% of the area · under 0.1% of it kept
How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Dominique O'RourkeLiberal36,40654.7%41.1%+13.6
Gurvir KhairaConservative20,47030.7%23.3%+7.4
Anne-Marie ZajdlikGreen6,77910.2%7.8%+2.4
Janice Folk-DawsonNew Democratic2,1293.2%21.9%−18.7
4 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
Jeffrey SwackhammerPeople's4980.7%
Elaine BaetzOther1320.2%
Michael WassilynIndependent1170.2%
Yurii YavorskyiOther620.1%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin
6,779 votes
Green took fewer than the 15,936-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
31 of 181
3 polls ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (147) · ■ won by another party (31) · ▨ tied (3).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 7,969 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 12.0% of the 66,593 valid votes, 12.0 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Liberal36,406
Conservative20,470
Still Liberal by 15,936 votes. Actual margin: 15,936.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 58.1% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 50.4%, the Conservatives 33.4%, the Greens 11.2% and the New Democrats 3.6%; in advance and special ballots, 60.6%, 27.1%, 8.8% and 2.6%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Guelph, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Guelph, April 28, 2025On election day the Liberals took 50.4%, the Conservatives 33.4%, the Greens 11.2% and the New Democrats 3.6%; in advance and special ballots, 60.6%, 27.1%, 8.8% and 2.6%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapLiberal50.4%60.6%+10.2 ptsConservative33.4%27.1%−6.3 ptsGreen11.2%8.8%−2.4 ptsNew Democratic3.6%2.6%−1.0 pts050%100%
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Guelph, April 28, 2025On election day the Liberals took 50.4%, the Conservatives 33.4%, the Greens 11.2% and the New Democrats 3.6%; in advance and special ballots, 60.6%, 27.1%, 8.8% and 2.6%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapLiberal50.4%60.6%+10.2 ptsConservative33.4%27.1%−6.3 ptsGreen11.2%8.8%−2.4 ptsNew Democratic3.6%2.6%−1.0 pts050%100%
Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
PartyElection dayAdvance and specialGap
Liberal50.4%60.6%+10.2
Conservative33.4%27.1%−6.3
Green11.2%8.8%−2.4
New Democratic3.6%2.6%−1.0
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Guelph and its 1 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Guelph — federal riding profile and 2025 results." The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/guelph/ Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.