The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35034Ontario

Haldimand—Norfolk

Haldimand—Norfolk is a federal riding in Ontario. Leslyn Lewis (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2021) represents Haldimand—Norfolk. Leslyn Lewis (Conservative) held Haldimand—Norfolk for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 15,178 votes (21.2 points), with 57.6% of the vote. Colin Walsh (Liberal) was second with 36.4%, on a turnout of 72.1% of 99,764 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Haldimand—Norfolk on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Haldimand—Norfolk

Leslyn Lewis's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Leslyn Lewis

Member of Parliament for Haldimand—Norfolk

Conservative

MP since 2021-09-20 · 2 terms

Transport, Infrastructure and Communities committee

105 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Main Estimates and Supplementary Estimates (A), 2025-26.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Haldimand—Norfolk, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 71,606 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Leslyn Lewis	Conservative	41,218	57.6%
Colin Walsh	Liberal	26,040	36.4%
Shannon Horner-Shepherd	New Democratic	2,412	3.4%
Nathan Hawkins	Green	750	1.0%
Others (2)		1,186	1.7%

Leslyn Lewis (Conservative) won Haldimand—Norfolk on April 28, 2025 with 41,218 votes, 57.6% of the 71,606 valid votes. Colin Walsh (Liberal) was second with 26,040 (36.4%), 15,178 votes and 21.2 points behind.

Of the 71,606 valid votes, Leslyn Lewis (Conservative) took 57.6%, Colin Walsh (Liberal) 36.4%, Shannon Horner-Shepherd (New Democratic) 3.4% and Nathan Hawkins (Green) 1.0%; the 2 other candidates took 1.7% together. Turnout was 72.1% of 99,764 electors: 71,966 ballots cast, 71,606 of them valid, for 6 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 10.5 (47.1% to 57.6%), the Liberals up 9.1 (27.3% to 36.4%) and the New Democrats down 9.8 (13.2% to 3.4%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: held by the Conservatives

The party first in Haldimand—Norfolk at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative42.2%by 3.3 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative48.3%by 14.0 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative40.8%by 8.5 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative50.9%by 26.0 points over the Liberals
2015Conservative44.1%by 7.5 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative46.8%by 22.3 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative47.1%by 19.7 points over the Liberals
2025Conservative57.6%by 21.2 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	42.2%	Liberal	3.3	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	48.3%	Liberal	14.0	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	40.8%	Liberal	8.5	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	50.9%	Liberal	26.0	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	44.1%	Liberal	7.5	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	46.8%	Liberal	22.3	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	47.1%	Liberal	19.7	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	57.6%	Liberal	21.2	official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 15.3 points over the next party, short of the 20 a stronghold needs. In 2025 the Conservatives took 57.6% of the vote here, 11.9 points above their average of 45.7% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (42.2%), 2006 (48.3%), 2008 (40.8%), 2011 (50.9%), 2015 (44.1%), 2019 (46.8%), 2021 (47.1%) and 2025 (57.6%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 23 of the 343 ridings are held without being strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Leslyn Lewis, by 12,440 votes (19.9 pts)
2019 Conservative · Diane Finley, by 13,314 votes (22.3 pts)
2015 Conservative · Diane Finley, by 4,227 votes (7.5 pts)

In the old Haldimand—Norfolk on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Haldimand—Norfolk lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Haldimand—Norfolk is

Population: 116,7052021 census
Area: 4,563km²
Density: 26people per km²
Electors: 99,764on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

Boundaries unchanged in 2023
Covers the same ground as its predecessor, and the same electors · one of 54 of 343 by area and electors

Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 14.5% — about 51 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest22nd lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 83.0% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest33rd highest of 343
Median age is 46.4 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest59th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 0.8% — about 50 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest61st lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 9.9% — about 57 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest116th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $86,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest147th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Essentially no. Today's Haldimand—Norfolk covers almost exactly the same ground as the Haldimand—Norfolk riding it replaced, and 100% of its 2025 electors lived in it.

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Leslyn Lewis	Conservative	41,218	57.6%	47.1%	+10.5
Colin Walsh	Liberal	26,040	36.4%	27.3%	+9.1
Shannon Horner-Shepherd	New Democratic	2,412	3.4%	13.2%	−9.8
Nathan Hawkins	Green	750	1.0%	—	+1.0

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Henry Geissler	People's	657	0.9%
Lily Eggink	Other	529	0.7%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,412 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 15,178-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

9 of 220

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (210) · ■ won by another party (9) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 7,590 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 10.6% of the 71,606 valid votes, 10.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0015,180

Conservative41,218

Liberal26,040

Still Conservative by 15,178 votes. Actual margin: 15,178.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 53.9% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 62.2%, the Liberals 30.7%, the New Democrats 3.8%, the Greens 1.2%, the People's Party 1.1% and the others 1.0%; in advance and special ballots, 52.2%, 43.0%, 2.8%, 0.8%, 0.7% and 0.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Haldimand—Norfolk, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	62.2%	52.2%	−10.0
Liberal	30.7%	43.0%	+12.3
New Democratic	3.8%	2.8%	−1.0
Green	1.2%	0.8%	−0.4
People's Party	1.1%	0.7%	−0.4
Other	1.0%	0.5%	−0.5

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Haldimand—Norfolk and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Haldimand—Norfolk — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/haldimand-norfolk/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.