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The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 24050Quebec

Montcalm

Montcalm is a federal riding in Quebec. Luc Thériault (Bloc Québécois, first elected to the House in 2015) represents Montcalm. Luc Thériault (Bloc Québécois) held Montcalm for the Bloc Québécois in the 2025 election by 11,499 votes (19.7 points), with 46.6% of the vote. Fatima Badran (Liberal) was second with 26.9%, on a turnout of 63.9% of 93,551 electors. Member as of .

Joliette—Manawan · Bloc QuébécoisLes Pays-d'en-Haut · LiberalRepentigny · Bloc QuébécoisRivière-du-Nord · Bloc QuébécoisTerrebonne · LiberalMontcalm
Fig. 1 — Montcalm on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on . Open it on the board →

Who represents Montcalm

BLuc Thériault
Luc Thériault's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Luc Thériault

Member of Parliament for Montcalm

Bloc Québécois

MP since · 4 terms

  • Access to Information, Privacy and Ethics committee
  • Medical Assistance in Dying committee
  • Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
  • Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure

112 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Opposition Motion—Funding of the Cultural Sector.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Bloc Québécois hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Montcalm, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Montcalm, April 28, 2025Of the 58,519 valid votes, Luc Thériault (Bloc Québécois) took 46.6%, Fatima Badran (Liberal) 26.9%, Jean-Sébastien Lepage (Conservative) 23.2% and Denis Perreault (New Democratic) 3.2%.2025Turnout 63.9% of 93,551 electorsLuc ThériaultBloc Québécois46.6% · 27,26811,499 votes ahead · 19.7 ptsFatima BadranLiberal26.9% · 15,769Jean-SébastienLepageConservative23.2% · 13,589Denis PerreaultNew Democratic3.2% · 1,893050%100%
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Montcalm, April 28, 2025Of the 58,519 valid votes, Luc Thériault (Bloc Québécois) took 46.6%, Fatima Badran (Liberal) 26.9%, Jean-Sébastien Lepage (Conservative) 23.2% and Denis Perreault (New Democratic) 3.2%.2025Turnout 63.9% of 93,551 electorsLuc ThériaultBloc Québécois46.6% · 27,26811,499 votes ahead · 19.7 ptsFatima BadranLiberal26.9% · 15,769Jean-Sébastien LepageConservative23.2% · 13,589Denis PerreaultNew Democratic3.2% · 1,893050%100%
Shares of the 58,519 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Luc ThériaultBloc Québécois27,26846.6%
Fatima BadranLiberal15,76926.9%
Jean-Sébastien LepageConservative13,58923.2%
Denis PerreaultNew Democratic1,8933.2%

Luc Thériault (Bloc Québécois) won Montcalm on with 27,268 votes, 46.6% of the 58,519 valid votes. Fatima Badran (Liberal) was second with 15,769 (26.9%), 11,499 votes and 19.7 points behind.

Of the 58,519 valid votes, Luc Thériault (Bloc Québécois) took 46.6%, Fatima Badran (Liberal) 26.9%, Jean-Sébastien Lepage (Conservative) 23.2% and Denis Perreault (New Democratic) 3.2%. Turnout was 63.9% of 93,551 electors: 59,810 ballots cast, 58,519 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Bloc Québécois are down 5.3 (51.9% to 46.6%), the Liberals up 7.4 (19.5% to 26.9%), the Conservatives up 11.8 (11.4% to 23.2%) and the New Democrats down 2.9 (6.1% to 3.2%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Bloc

The party first in Montcalm at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

  1. 2004Bloc Québécois71.2%by 54.6 points over the Liberals
  2. 2006Bloc Québécois62.3%by 43.1 points over the Conservatives
  3. 2008Bloc Québécois55.5%by 41.5 points over the Liberals
  4. 2011changed handsNew Democratic52.9%by 22.7 points over the Bloc Québécois
  5. 2015changed handsBloc Québécois36.6%by 9.3 points over the Liberals
  6. 2019Bloc Québécois58.0%by 37.6 points over the Liberals
  7. 2021Bloc Québécois51.9%by 32.4 points over the Liberals
  8. 2025Bloc Québécois46.6%by 19.7 points over the Liberals
Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.
The figures
YearFirstShareSecondMargin (pts)Basis
2004Bloc Québécois71.2%Liberal54.6carried, our estimate
2006Bloc Québécois62.3%Conservative43.1carried, our estimate
2008Bloc Québécois55.5%Liberal41.5carried, our estimate
2011New Democratic52.9%Bloc Québécois22.7carried, our estimate
2015Bloc Québécois36.6%Liberal9.3carried, our estimate
2019Bloc Québécois58.0%Liberal37.6carried, our estimate
2021Bloc Québécois51.9%Liberal32.4transposed by Elections Canada
2025Bloc Québécois46.6%Liberal19.7official result

The Bloc Québécois were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the NDP were first in 2011. In 2025 the Bloc Québécois took 46.6% of the vote here, 5.6 points below their average of 52.2% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Bloc Québécois were first here in 2004 (71.2%), 2006 (62.3%), 2008 (55.5%), 2015 (36.6%), 2019 (58.0%), 2021 (51.9%) and 2025 (46.6%) and the NDP in 2011 (52.9%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025
  • 2021 Bloc Québécois · Luc Thériault, by 17,182 votes (33.4 pts)
  • 2019 Bloc Québécois · Luc Thériault, by 20,591 votes (37.6 pts)
  • 2015 Bloc Québécois · Luc Thériault, by 4,921 votes (9.3 pts)

In the old Montcalm on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Montcalm lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Montcalm is

Population
111,9552021 census
Area
756km²
Density
148people per km²
Electors
93,551on the 2025 lists
  • Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 13.8% — about 49 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
    highestlowest13th lowest of 343
  • Share with French as a mother tongue is 92.8% — about 58.0 times the median riding's 1.6%.
    highestlowest22nd highest of 343
  • Share who are immigrants is 4.9% — about 28 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
    highestlowest55th lowest of 343
  • Median age is 39.6 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
    highestlowest105th lowest of 343
  • Share of households that own their home is 74.5% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
    highestlowest123rd highest of 343
  • Median total household income is $84,000 — about the same as the median riding's $84,000.
    highestlowest162nd highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Montcalm, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Montcalm, but it is only 83% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding
100.0%Montcalm 99.9% of the area · 83% of it kept
How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Luc ThériaultBloc Québécois27,26846.6%51.9%−5.3
Fatima BadranLiberal15,76926.9%19.5%+7.4
Jean-Sébastien LepageConservative13,58923.2%11.4%+11.8
Denis PerreaultNew Democratic1,8933.2%6.1%−2.9
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin
13,589 votes
Conservative took more than the 11,499-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
15 of 213
4 polls ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Bloc Québécois (194) · ■ won by another party (15) · ▨ tied (4).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 5,750 voters switching from Bloc Québécois to Liberal — 9.8% of the 58,519 valid votes, 9.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Bloc Québécois27,268
Liberal15,769
Still Bloc Québécois by 11,499 votes. Actual margin: 11,499.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 66.6% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Bloc Québécois took 45.4%, the Liberals 24.9%, the Conservatives 26.1% and the New Democrats 3.6%; in advance and special ballots, 49.0%, 31.0%, 17.5% and 2.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Montcalm, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Montcalm, April 28, 2025On election day the Bloc Québécois took 45.4%, the Liberals 24.9%, the Conservatives 26.1% and the New Democrats 3.6%; in advance and special ballots, 49.0%, 31.0%, 17.5% and 2.5%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapBloc Québécois45.4%49.0%+3.6 ptsLiberal24.9%31.0%+6.1 ptsConservative26.1%17.5%−8.6 ptsNew Democratic3.6%2.5%−1.1 pts050%100%
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Montcalm, April 28, 2025On election day the Bloc Québécois took 45.4%, the Liberals 24.9%, the Conservatives 26.1% and the New Democrats 3.6%; in advance and special ballots, 49.0%, 31.0%, 17.5% and 2.5%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapBloc Québécois45.4%49.0%+3.6 ptsLiberal24.9%31.0%+6.1 ptsConservative26.1%17.5%−8.6 ptsNew Democratic3.6%2.5%−1.1 pts050%100%
Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
PartyElection dayAdvance and specialGap
Bloc Québécois45.4%49.0%+3.6
Liberal24.9%31.0%+6.1
Conservative26.1%17.5%−8.6
New Democratic3.6%2.5%−1.1
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Montcalm and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Montcalm — federal riding profile and 2025 results." The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/montcalm/ Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.