The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 47004Saskatchewan

Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan

Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan is a federal riding in Saskatchewan. Fraser Tolmie (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2021) represents Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan. Fraser Tolmie (Conservative) held Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 25,330 votes (55.2 points), with 71.9% of the vote. Tabitha Mukamusoni (Liberal) was second with 16.7%, on a turnout of 73.1% of 63,114 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan

Fraser Tolmie's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Fraser Tolmie

Member of Parliament for Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan

Conservative

MP since 2021-09-20 · 2 terms

Veterans Affairs committee

88 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 1.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 45,879 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Fraser Tolmie	Conservative	32,991	71.9%
Tabitha Mukamusoni	Liberal	7,661	16.7%
Britt Baumann	New Democratic	3,458	7.5%
Chey Craik	People's Party	1,358	3.0%
Other (1)		411	0.9%

Fraser Tolmie (Conservative) won Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan on April 28, 2025 with 32,991 votes, 71.9% of the 45,879 valid votes. Tabitha Mukamusoni (Liberal) was second with 7,661 (16.7%), 25,330 votes and 55.2 points behind.

Of the 45,879 valid votes, Fraser Tolmie (Conservative) took 71.9%, Tabitha Mukamusoni (Liberal) 16.7%, Britt Baumann (New Democratic) 7.5% and Chey Craik (People's Party) 3.0%; one other candidate took 0.9%. Turnout was 73.1% of 63,114 electors: 46,136 ballots cast, 45,879 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 11.2 (60.7% to 71.9%), the Liberals up 10.7 (6.0% to 16.7%), the New Democrats down 11.3 (18.8% to 7.5%) and the People's Party down 8.3 (11.3% to 3.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: a Conservative stronghold

The party first in Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative37.5%by 7.8 points over the New Democrats
2006Conservative45.3%by 14.9 points over the New Democrats
2008Conservative49.1%by 19.3 points over the New Democrats
2011Conservative51.5%by 11.7 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative56.6%by 33.6 points over the New Democrats
2019Conservative71.9%by 55.4 points over the New Democrats
2021Conservative60.7%by 41.9 points over the New Democrats
2025Conservative71.9%by 55.2 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	37.5%	New Democratic	7.8	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	45.3%	New Democratic	14.9	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	49.1%	New Democratic	19.3	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	51.5%	New Democratic	11.7	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	56.6%	New Democratic	33.6	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	71.9%	New Democratic	55.4	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	60.7%	New Democratic	41.9	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	71.9%	Liberal	55.2	official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 30.0 points over the next party. In 2025 the Conservatives took 71.9% of the vote here, 18.7 points above their average of 53.2% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (37.5%), 2006 (45.3%), 2008 (49.1%), 2011 (51.5%), 2015 (56.6%), 2019 (71.9%), 2021 (60.7%) and 2025 (71.9%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 77 of the 343 ridings are strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Fraser Tolmie, by 16,894 votes (41.0 pts)
2019 Conservative · Tom Lukiwski, by 24,333 votes (54.1 pts)
2015 Conservative · Tom Lukiwski, by 13,295 votes (31.7 pts)

In the old Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan is

Population: 83,3152021 census
Area: 40,910km²
Density: 2.0people per km²
Electors: 63,114on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

2nd-most candidates on the ballot in Saskatchewan
5 candidates stood · 2nd of 14 in Saskatchewan · 156th of 343 in Canada
3rd-highest turnout in Saskatchewan
73.1% of 63,114 electors voted · 3rd of 14 in Saskatchewan · 69th of 343 in Canada

Share who are immigrants is 7.1% — about 41 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest81st lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 78.0% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest83rd highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 19.5% — about 69 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest89th lowest of 343
Median age is 43.2 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest118th highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.4% — a little lower than the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest152nd lowest of 343
Median total household income is $81,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest160th lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 92% of the 2025 electors in today's Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan lived in the old Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan; by area, 22% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

92.3%Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan 78.5% of the area · 97% of it kept

7.7%Cypress Hills—Grasslands 21.3% of the area · 12% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Fraser Tolmie	Conservative	32,991	71.9%	60.7%	+11.2
Tabitha Mukamusoni	Liberal	7,661	16.7%	6.0%	+10.7
Britt Baumann	New Democratic	3,458	7.5%	18.8%	−11.3
Chey Craik	People's	1,358	3.0%	11.3%	−8.3

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Mike Gardiner

Green

411

0.9%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

3,458 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 25,330-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

1 of 161

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (160) · ■ won by another party (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 12,666 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 27.6% of the 45,879 valid votes, 27.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0025,332

Conservative32,991

Liberal7,661

Still Conservative by 25,330 votes. Actual margin: 25,330.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 59.2% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 73.2%, the Liberals 15.4%, the New Democrats 7.2% and the People's Party 3.2%; in advance and special ballots, 70.0%, 18.5%, 8.1% and 2.6%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	73.2%	70.0%	−3.2
Liberal	15.4%	18.5%	+3.1
New Democratic	7.2%	8.1%	+0.9
People's Party	3.2%	2.6%	−0.6

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan and its 7 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/moose-jaw-lake-centre-lanigan/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.