The Political Record · Federal electoral districts

Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan

Federal riding · SK · No. 47004 · 2023 representation order
Fig. 1 — Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan, 2023 boundaries.
Member
Fraser Tolmie Conservative
2025 result
Conservative hold by 25,330 votes
Turnout
73.1% of 63,114 electors
Population
83,315 2021 census
Area
40,910 km²
Figures as of
2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Most candidates on the ballot in Saskatchewan: 5 candidates stood · 2nd of 14 in Saskatchewan · 156th of 343 in Canada2nd
    Most candidates on the ballot in Saskatchewan
    5 candidates stood · 2nd of 14 in Saskatchewan · 156th of 343 in Canada
  • Highest turnout in Saskatchewan: 73.1% of 63,114 electors voted · 3rd of 14 in Saskatchewan · 69th of 343 in Canada3rd
    Highest turnout in Saskatchewan
    73.1% of 63,114 electors voted · 3rd of 14 in Saskatchewan · 69th of 343 in Canada
  • Width of the margin: Won by 55.2 points (25,330 votes) · 17th of 343 in Canada17th
    Width of the margin
    Won by 55.2 points (25,330 votes) · 17th of 343 in Canada
In brief
  1. Fraser Tolmie held the seat for the Conservatives by 25,330 votes (+55.2 points).
  2. 22% of today's riding was drawn from other ridings in 2023.
  3. Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 59.2% of votes were cast on the day.
  4. Share who are immigrants is the 81st lowest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Fraser Tolmie
Conservative · first elected 2021-09-20 · 2 terms
  • Member: Veterans Affairs
68 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 1.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 22% of today's Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan came from ridings other than the old Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan.

Share of today's areaFormer riding
78.5%Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan 97% of it kept
21.3%Cypress Hills—Grasslands 12% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Conservative hold
Elected
Fraser Tolmie
Conservative
32,991
71.9% of valid votes
Margin
25,330
votes · +55.2 pts
Runner-up
Tabitha Mukamusoni
Liberal
7,661
16.7% of valid votes
Conservative 71.9% · Liberal 16.7% · New Democratic 7.5% · People's 3.0%
Turnout73.1% of 63,114 electors
CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Fraser TolmieConservative32,99171.9%60.7%+11.2
Tabitha MukamusoniLiberal7,66116.7%6.0%+10.7
Britt BaumannNew Democratic3,4587.5%18.8%−11.3
Chey CraikPeople's1,3583.0%11.3%−8.3
1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote
Mike GardinerGreen4110.9%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Swing needed to flip
27.6 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
3,458 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 25,330-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
1 of 161
No poll ended in a tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (160) · ■ won by another party (1).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 12,666 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 27.6% of the 45,879 valid votes, 27.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Conservative32,991
Liberal7,661
Still Conservative by 25,330 votes. Actual margin: 25,330.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 59.2% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative73.2%70.0%−3.2
Liberal15.4%18.5%+3.1
New Democratic7.2%8.1%+0.9
People's3.2%2.6%−0.6
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhat kind of place this is

2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.

VIWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan and its 7 neighbouring ridings.

The card

No. 47004SK · 2025
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan
Fraser Tolmie
Result
Conservative hold by 25,330
Turnout
73.1%
Population
83,315
Area
40,910 km²
Most candidates on the ballot in Saskatchewan: 5 candidates stood · 2nd of 14 in Saskatchewan · 156th of 343 in Canada2ndMost candidates on the ballot in SaskatchewanHighest turnout in Saskatchewan: 73.1% of 63,114 electors voted · 3rd of 14 in Saskatchewan · 69th of 343 in Canada3rdHighest turnout in SaskatchewanWidth of the margin: Won by 55.2 points (25,330 votes) · 17th of 343 in Canada17thWidth of the margin
One of 343The Political Record

A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.

Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.

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