The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35067Ontario

Nepean

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Nepean
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Nepean is a federal riding in Ontario. Mark Carney (Liberal) has represented Nepean since the 2025 election. Mark Carney (Liberal) held Nepean for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 22,056 votes (30.6 points), with 63.8% of the vote. Barbara Bal (Conservative) was second with 33.2%, on a turnout of 77.2% of 94,129 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Nepean on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Nepean

Mark Carney's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Mark Carney

Member of Parliament for Nepean

Liberal

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Leader of the Liberal Party
Prime Minister

391 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on The Economy.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Nepean, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 72,237 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Mark Carney	Liberal	46,073	63.8%
Barbara Bal	Conservative	24,017	33.2%
Shyam Shukla	New Democratic	1,424	2.0%
Others (2)		723	1.0%

Mark Carney (Liberal) won Nepean on April 28, 2025 with 46,073 votes, 63.8% of the 72,237 valid votes. Barbara Bal (Conservative) was second with 24,017 (33.2%), 22,056 votes and 30.6 points behind.

Of the 72,237 valid votes, Mark Carney (Liberal) took 63.8%, Barbara Bal (Conservative) 33.2% and Shyam Shukla (New Democratic) 2.0%; the 2 other candidates took 1.0% together. Turnout was 77.2% of 94,129 electors: 72,657 ballots cast, 72,237 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 18.3 (45.5% to 63.8%), the Conservatives unchanged (33.2% to 33.2%) and the New Democrats down 14.1 (16.1% to 2.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Nepean at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Conservative45.7%by 5.6 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative55.0%by 27.0 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative55.8%by 32.4 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative54.5%by 29.2 points over the Liberals
2015changed handsLiberal52.4%by 16.3 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal45.9%by 12.4 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal45.5%by 12.3 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal63.8%by 30.6 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Conservative	45.7%	Liberal	5.6	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	55.0%	Liberal	27.0	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	55.8%	Liberal	32.4	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	54.5%	Liberal	29.2	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	52.4%	Conservative	16.3	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	45.9%	Conservative	12.4	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	45.5%	Conservative	12.3	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	63.8%	Conservative	30.6	official result

The Conservatives were first at four of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Liberals at four; it changed hands once. In 2025 the Liberals took 63.8% of the vote here, 26.6 points above their average of 37.2% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (45.7%), 2006 (55.0%), 2008 (55.8%) and 2011 (54.5%) and the Liberals in 2015 (52.4%), 2019 (45.9%), 2021 (45.5%) and 2025 (63.8%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · Chandra Arya, by 7,436 votes (11.4 pts)
2019 Liberal · Chandra Arya, by 8,613 votes (12.4 pts)
2015 Liberal · Chandra Arya, by 10,575 votes (16.3 pts)

In the old Nepean on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Nepean lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Nepean is

Population: 122,3052021 census
Area: 86km²
Density: 1,429people per km²
Electors: 94,129on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

10th-highest turnout in Canada
77.2% of 94,129 electors voted · 10th of 343

Median total household income is $121,000 — about 1.4 times the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest17th highest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 48.9% — about 1.7 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest48th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 79.7% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest65th highest of 343
Median age is 38.0 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest66th lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 31.6% — about 1.8 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest102nd highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 5.8% — about 3.6 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest102nd highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 100% of the 2025 electors in today's Nepean lived in the old Nepean; by area, 1% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

100.0%Nepean 98.6% of the area · 47% of it kept

0.0%Ottawa West—Nepean 1.4% of the area · 1% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Mark Carney	Liberal	46,073	63.8%	45.5%	+18.3
Barbara Bal	Conservative	24,017	33.2%	33.2%	+0.0
Shyam Shukla	New Democratic	1,424	2.0%	16.1%	−14.1

2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Greg Hopkins	Green	462	0.6%
Eric Fleury	People's	261	0.4%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

1,424 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 22,056-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

3 of 193

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (190) · ■ won by another party (3).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 11,029 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 15.3% of the 72,237 valid votes, 15.3 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0022,058

Liberal46,073

Conservative24,017

Still Liberal by 22,056 votes. Actual margin: 22,056.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 46.3% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 61.1%, the Conservatives 35.1% and the New Democrats 2.6%; in advance and special ballots, 66.1%, 31.6% and 1.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Nepean, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	61.1%	66.1%	+5.0
Conservative	35.1%	31.6%	−3.5
New Democratic	2.6%	1.5%	−1.1

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Nepean and its 4 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Nepean — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/nepean/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.