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The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35020Ontario

Carleton

Carleton is a federal riding in Ontario. Bruce Fanjoy (Liberal) has represented Carleton since the 2025 election. Bruce Fanjoy (Liberal) took Carleton from the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 4,513 votes (5.2 points), with 50.9% of the vote. Pierre Poilievre (Conservative) was second with 45.7%, on a turnout of 81.4% of 106,504 electors. Member as of .

Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke · ConservativeKanata · LiberalLanark—Frontenac · ConservativeLeeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes · ConservativeNepean · LiberalOttawa South · LiberalPontiac—Kitigan Zibi · LiberalPrescott—Russell—Cumberland · LiberalStormont—Dundas—Glengarry · ConservativeCarleton
Fig. 1 — Carleton on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on . Open it on the board →

Who represents Carleton

LBruce Fanjoy
Bruce Fanjoy's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Bruce Fanjoy

Member of Parliament for Carleton

Liberal

MP since · first term

  • Environment and Sustainable Development committee
  • Veterans Affairs committee

47 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 1.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal gain from the Conservatives

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Carleton, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Carleton, April 28, 2025Of the 86,060 valid votes, Bruce Fanjoy (Liberal) took 50.9%, Pierre Poilievre (Conservative) 45.7% and Beth Prokaska (New Democratic) 1.4%; the 88 other candidates took 1.9% together.2025Turnout 81.4% of 106,504 electorsBruce FanjoyLiberal50.9% · 43,8464,513 votes ahead · 5.2 ptsPierre PoilievreConservative45.7% · 39,333Beth ProkaskaNew Democratic1.4% · 1,221Others (88)1.9% · 1,660050%100%
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Carleton, April 28, 2025Of the 86,060 valid votes, Bruce Fanjoy (Liberal) took 50.9%, Pierre Poilievre (Conservative) 45.7% and Beth Prokaska (New Democratic) 1.4%; the 88 other candidates took 1.9% together.2025Turnout 81.4% of 106,504 electorsBruce FanjoyLiberal50.9% · 43,8464,513 votes ahead · 5.2 ptsPierre PoilievreConservative45.7% · 39,333Beth ProkaskaNew Democratic1.4% · 1,221Others (88)1.9% · 1,660050%100%
Shares of the 86,060 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Bruce FanjoyLiberal43,84650.9%
Pierre PoilievreConservative39,33345.7%
Beth ProkaskaNew Democratic1,2211.4%
Others (88)1,6601.9%

Bruce Fanjoy (Liberal) won Carleton on with 43,846 votes, 50.9% of the 86,060 valid votes. Pierre Poilievre (Conservative) was second with 39,333 (45.7%), 4,513 votes and 5.2 points behind.

Of the 86,060 valid votes, Bruce Fanjoy (Liberal) took 50.9%, Pierre Poilievre (Conservative) 45.7% and Beth Prokaska (New Democratic) 1.4%; the 88 other candidates took 1.9% together. Turnout was 81.4% of 106,504 electors: 86,655 ballots cast, 86,060 of them valid, for 91 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 19.2 (31.7% to 50.9%), the Conservatives down 5.9 (51.6% to 45.7%) and the New Democrats down 9.9 (11.3% to 1.4%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: no party has held it

The party first in Carleton at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

  1. 2004Conservative47.8%by 10.7 points over the Liberals
  2. 2006Conservative55.5%by 29.7 points over the Liberals
  3. 2008Conservative56.8%by 33.8 points over the Liberals
  4. 2011Conservative55.7%by 31.0 points over the Liberals
  5. 2015†Conservative45.5%by 0.4 points over the Liberals
  6. 2019Conservative44.6%by 5.4 points over the Liberals
  7. 2021Conservative51.6%by 19.9 points over the Liberals
  8. 2025changed handsLiberal50.9%by 5.2 points over the Conservatives
Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.
The figures
YearFirstShareSecondMargin (pts)Basis
2004Conservative47.8%Liberal10.7carried, our estimate
2006Conservative55.5%Liberal29.7carried, our estimate
2008Conservative56.8%Liberal33.8carried, our estimate
2011Conservative55.7%Liberal31.0carried, our estimate
2015†Conservative45.5%Liberal0.4carried, our estimate
2019Conservative44.6%Liberal5.4carried, our estimate
2021Conservative51.6%Liberal19.9transposed by Elections Canada
2025Liberal50.9%Conservative5.2official result

The Conservatives were first at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Liberals at one; it changed hands once. In 2025 the Liberals took 50.9% of the vote here, 18.6 points above their average of 32.3% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (47.8%), 2006 (55.5%), 2008 (56.8%), 2011 (55.7%), 2015 (45.5%), 2019 (44.6%) and 2021 (51.6%) and the Liberals in 2025 (50.9%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2015 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025
  • 2021 Conservative · Pierre Poilievre, by 11,058 votes (15.6 pts)
  • 2019 Conservative · Pierre Poilievre, by 5,629 votes (8.1 pts)
  • 2015 Conservative · Pierre Poilievre, by 1,849 votes (3.2 pts)

In the old Carleton on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Carleton lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Carleton is

Population
124,3052021 census
Area
1,989km²
Density
63people per km²
Electors
106,504on the 2025 lists
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Most candidates on the ballot in Canada: 91 candidates stood · 1st of 3431st
    Most candidates on the ballot in Canada
    91 candidates stood · 1st of 343
  • Most home owners: 89.5% of households own their home, the highest of 343 (Share of households that own their home, 2021 census)1st
    Most home owners
    89.5% of households own their home, the highest of 343 (Share of households that own their home, 2021 census)
  • 2nd-highest turnout in Canada: 81.4% of 106,504 electors voted · 2nd of 3432nd
    2nd-highest turnout in Canada
    81.4% of 106,504 electors voted · 2nd of 343
  • Share of households that own their home is 89.5% — about 1.3 times the median riding's 71.4%.
    highestlowest1st highest of 343
  • Median total household income is $135,000 — about 1.6 times the median riding's $84,000.
    highestlowest3rd highest of 343
  • Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 44.0% — about 1.6 times the median riding's 28.2%.
    highestlowest68th highest of 343
  • Share with French as a mother tongue is 7.0% — about 4.4 times the median riding's 1.6%.
    highestlowest98th highest of 343
  • Median age is 41.6 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
    highestlowest163rd highest of 343
  • Share who are immigrants is 16.9% — about the same as the median riding's 17.3%.
    highestlowest171st lowest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 83% of the 2025 electors in today's Carleton lived in the old Carleton; by area, 41% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding
83.4%Carleton 59.4% of the area · 96% of it kept
14.5%Kanata—Carleton 33.6% of the area · 80% of it kept
1.1%Orléans 2.5% of the area · 23% of it kept
1.0%Nepean 3.8% of the area · 42% of it kept
0.0%Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 0.7% of the area · 0.4% of it kept
How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Bruce FanjoyLiberal43,84650.9%31.7%+19.2
Pierre PoilievreConservative39,33345.7%51.6%−5.9
Beth ProkaskaNew Democratic1,2211.4%11.3%−9.9
88 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
Mark WatsonGreen5610.7%
Karen BourdeauOther1120.1%
Shawn MacEachernOther630.1%
Lorant PolyaIndependent570.1%
Scott FalkinghamIndependent450.1%
Sana AhmadIndependent410.0%
Pierre GauthierIndependent380.0%
Danny LégaréOther370.0%
Guillaume ParadisIndependent370.0%
Dan KyungIndependent350.0%
Sébastien CoRhinoOther310.0%
Sarah BurkeIndependent270.0%
Mark MoutterIndependent230.0%
David ZhuIndependent210.0%
Charlie CurrieIndependent200.0%
John DaleIndependent200.0%
Euan Fraser TaitIndependent180.0%
John BoylanIndependent170.0%
Alex BanksIndependent160.0%
Mélodie AndersonIndependent160.0%
David NguyenIndependent150.0%
Michael BednarskiIndependent150.0%
Sophie BeardenIndependent140.0%
Seyed Hosseini LavasaniIndependent130.0%
Alexandra EngeringIndependent120.0%
Darcy VanderwaterIndependent120.0%
Jeani BoudreaultIndependent120.0%
Lajos PolyaIndependent120.0%
Daniel StucklessIndependent110.0%
Donald McKayIndependent110.0%
Jeffrey GoodmanIndependent110.0%
Jenny CartwrightIndependent110.0%
Charles LemieuxIndependent100.0%
Laina KohlerIndependent100.0%
Maria GabrielIndependent100.0%
Marthalee AykroydIndependent90.0%
Ryan HuardIndependent90.0%
Sarah ThompsonIndependent90.0%
Alain BourgaultIndependent80.0%
Andrea HollingerIndependent80.0%
Connie LukawskiIndependent80.0%
Daniel GagnonIndependent80.0%
John Francis O'FlynnIndependent80.0%
Robert HarrisIndependent80.0%
Julian SelodyIndependent70.0%
Michal WieczorekIndependent70.0%
Peter GormanIndependent70.0%
Agnieszka MarszalekIndependent60.0%
Alexander LeinIndependent60.0%
Blake HamiltonIndependent60.0%
Hakim SheriffIndependent60.0%
Line BélangerIndependent60.0%
Loren HicksIndependent60.0%
Alain LamontagneIndependent50.0%
David CherniakIndependent50.0%
Elliot WandIndependent50.0%
Kevin KrisaIndependent50.0%
Lény PainchaudIndependent50.0%
Tetia BayoroIndependent50.0%
Winston NeutelIndependent50.0%
Christopher Navarro-CansecoIndependent40.0%
Dante Camarena JimenezIndependent40.0%
Gerrit DoggerIndependent40.0%
Gregory GillisIndependent40.0%
Jaël Champagne GareauIndependent40.0%
Lanna PalssonIndependent40.0%
Patrick StrzalkowskiIndependent40.0%
Spencer RocchiIndependent40.0%
Artem GudkovIndependent30.0%
Julie St-AmandIndependent30.0%
Kerri HildebrandtIndependent30.0%
Krzysztof KrzywinskiIndependent30.0%
Manon Marie Lili DesbiensIndependent30.0%
Michael SkirzynskiIndependent30.0%
Roger SherwoodIndependent30.0%
Samuel LafontaineIndependent30.0%
Trevor HolsworthIndependent30.0%
Yogo ShimadaIndependent30.0%
Anthony HamelIndependent20.0%
Benjamin TeichmanIndependent20.0%
Daniel GrahamIndependent20.0%
Demetrios KaravasIndependent20.0%
Pascal St-AmandIndependent20.0%
Sheri ObermanIndependent20.0%
Wallace Richard RowatIndependent20.0%
Zornitsa HalachevaIndependent20.0%
Joseph MawIndependent10.0%
Ysack DupontIndependent00.0%

An unusually long ballot. 91 candidates stood here.

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin
1,221 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 4,513-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
112 of 226
2 polls ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (112) · ■ won by another party (112) · ▨ tied (2).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 2,257 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 2.6% of the 86,060 valid votes, 2.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Liberal43,846
Conservative39,333
Still Liberal by 4,513 votes. Actual margin: 4,513.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 42.6% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots. On election day alone, the Conservatives led here — the seat was decided by ballots cast before the day.

On election day the Liberals took 47.5%, the Conservatives 48.4%, the New Democrats 1.8%, the independents 1.2% and the Greens 0.8%; in advance and special ballots, 53.5%, 43.7%, 1.2%, 0.8% and 0.6%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Carleton, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Carleton, April 28, 2025On election day the Liberals took 47.5%, the Conservatives 48.4%, the New Democrats 1.8%, the independents 1.2% and the Greens 0.8%; in advance and special ballots, 53.5%, 43.7%, 1.2%, 0.8% and 0.6%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapLiberal47.5%53.5%+6.0 ptsConservative48.4%43.7%−4.7 ptsNew Democratic1.8%1.2%−0.6 ptsIndependent1.2%0.8%−0.4 ptsGreen0.8%0.6%−0.2 pts050%100%
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Carleton, April 28, 2025On election day the Liberals took 47.5%, the Conservatives 48.4%, the New Democrats 1.8%, the independents 1.2% and the Greens 0.8%; in advance and special ballots, 53.5%, 43.7%, 1.2%, 0.8% and 0.6%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapLiberal47.5%53.5%+6.0 ptsConservative48.4%43.7%−4.7 ptsNew Democratic1.8%1.2%−0.6 ptsIndependent1.2%0.8%−0.4 ptsGreen0.8%0.6%−0.2 pts050%100%
Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
PartyElection dayAdvance and specialGap
Liberal47.5%53.5%+6.0
Conservative48.4%43.7%−4.7
New Democratic1.8%1.2%−0.6
Independent1.2%0.8%−0.4
Green0.8%0.6%−0.2
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Carleton and its 9 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Carleton — federal riding profile and 2025 results." The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/carleton/ Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.