The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35080Ontario

Ottawa South

Ottawa-Sud

Ottawa South is a federal riding in Ontario. David McGuinty (Liberal, first elected to the House in 2004) represents Ottawa South. David McGuinty (Liberal) held Ottawa South for the Liberals in the 2025 election by 25,378 votes (38.1 points), with 65.2% of the vote. Blair Turner (Conservative) was second with 27.1%, on a turnout of 69.2% of 96,956 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Ottawa South on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Ottawa South

David McGuinty's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

David McGuinty

Member of Parliament for Ottawa South

Liberal

MP since 2004-06-28 · 8 terms

Minister of National Defence

140 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on National Defence.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Liberal hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Ottawa South, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 66,564 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
David McGuinty	Liberal	43,388	65.2%
Blair Turner	Conservative	18,010	27.1%
Hena Masjedee	New Democratic	4,017	6.0%
Nira Dookeran	Green	642	1.0%
Others (3)		507	0.8%

David McGuinty (Liberal) won Ottawa South on April 28, 2025 with 43,388 votes, 65.2% of the 66,564 valid votes. Blair Turner (Conservative) was second with 18,010 (27.1%), 25,378 votes and 38.1 points behind.

Of the 66,564 valid votes, David McGuinty (Liberal) took 65.2%, Blair Turner (Conservative) 27.1%, Hena Masjedee (New Democratic) 6.0% and Nira Dookeran (Green) 1.0%; the 3 other candidates took 0.8% together. Turnout was 69.2% of 96,956 electors: 67,067 ballots cast, 66,564 of them valid, for 7 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Liberals are up 16.3 (48.9% to 65.2%), the Conservatives up 0.4 (26.7% to 27.1%), the New Democrats down 12.0 (18.0% to 6.0%) and the Greens down 1.2 (2.2% to 1.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: held by the Liberals

The party first in Ottawa South at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004Liberal43.3%by 7.0 points over the Conservatives
2006Liberal41.9%by 2.0 points over the Conservatives
2008Liberal46.2%by 9.7 points over the Conservatives
2011Liberal41.4%by 5.2 points over the Conservatives
2015Liberal57.8%by 30.4 points over the Conservatives
2019Liberal50.3%by 22.8 points over the Conservatives
2021Liberal48.9%by 22.2 points over the Conservatives
2025Liberal65.2%by 38.1 points over the Conservatives

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004	Liberal	43.3%	Conservative	7.0	carried, our estimate
2006	Liberal	41.9%	Conservative	2.0	carried, our estimate
2008	Liberal	46.2%	Conservative	9.7	carried, our estimate
2011	Liberal	41.4%	Conservative	5.2	carried, our estimate
2015	Liberal	57.8%	Conservative	30.4	carried, our estimate
2019	Liberal	50.3%	Conservative	22.8	carried, our estimate
2021	Liberal	48.9%	Conservative	22.2	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Liberal	65.2%	Conservative	38.1	official result

The Liberals were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 17.2 points over the next party, short of the 20 a stronghold needs. In 2025 the Liberals took 65.2% of the vote here, 18.1 points above their average of 47.1% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021. The Liberals have been first here at every general election since 1988, twelve in a row.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (43.3%), 2006 (41.9%), 2008 (46.2%), 2011 (41.4%), 2015 (57.8%), 2019 (50.3%), 2021 (48.9%) and 2025 (65.2%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 23 of the 343 ridings are held without being strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025

2021 Liberal · David McGuinty, by 13,541 votes (22.8 pts)
2019 Liberal · David McGuinty, by 18,180 votes (27.8 pts)
2015 Liberal · David McGuinty, by 23,120 votes (35.8 pts)

In the old Ottawa South on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Ottawa South lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Ottawa South is

Population: 126,7802021 census
Area: 100km²
Density: 1,270people per km²
Electors: 96,956on the 2025 lists

Median age is 37.6 — a little lower than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest52nd lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 45.2% — about 1.6 times the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest62nd highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 34.6% — about 2.0 times the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest80th highest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 58.1% — about 81 percent of the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest81st lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 10.5% — about 6.6 times the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest93rd highest of 343
Median total household income is $91,000 — a little higher than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest108th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 86% of the 2025 electors in today's Ottawa South lived in the old Ottawa South; by area, 33% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

86.1%Ottawa South 67.2% of the area · 88% of it kept

13.9%Carleton 32.8% of the area · 3% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
David McGuinty	Liberal	43,388	65.2%	48.9%	+16.3
Blair Turner	Conservative	18,010	27.1%	26.7%	+0.4
Hena Masjedee	New Democratic	4,017	6.0%	18.0%	−12.0
Nira Dookeran	Green	642	1.0%	2.2%	−1.2

3 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote

Alex Perrier	Other	259	0.4%
William Cooper	Other	155	0.2%
John Redins	Other	93	0.1%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

4,017 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 25,378-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

2 of 207

No poll ended in a tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Liberals (205) · ■ won by another party (2).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 12,690 voters switching from Liberal to Conservative — 19.1% of the 66,564 valid votes, 19.1 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 0025,380

Liberal43,388

Conservative18,010

Still Liberal by 25,378 votes. Actual margin: 25,378.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 51.0% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 62.2%, the Conservatives 28.8%, the New Democrats 6.9%, the Greens 1.1% and the others 1.0%; in advance and special ballots, 68.3%, 25.2%, 5.2%, 0.8% and 0.5%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Ottawa South, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	62.2%	68.3%	+6.1
Conservative	28.8%	25.2%	−3.6
New Democratic	6.9%	5.2%	−1.7
Green	1.1%	0.8%	−0.3
Other	1.0%	0.5%	−0.5

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Ottawa South and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Ottawa South — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/ottawa-south/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.