The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Newmarket—Aurora
Federal riding · ON · No. 35068 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Sandra Cobena Conservative
- 2025 result
- Conservative gain by 2,241 votes
- Turnout
- 70.8% of 88,805 electors
- Population
- 117,700 2021 census
- Area
- 57 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Changed hands in 2025One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (21 of 122 in Ontario)
- Closeness of the raceWon by 2,241 votes (3.6 pts) · 49th of 343 in Canada
- Area, smallest first57 km² · 77th of 343 in Canada
In brief
- Sandra Cobena took the seat for the Conservatives by 2,241 votes (+3.6 points).
- The riding shrank in 2023: it keeps 91% of the old Newmarket—Aurora.
- Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 54.8% of votes were cast on the day.
- Median total household income is the 36th highest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Sandra Cobena
- Member: Finance
IDid this riding change?
Yes — it shrank. All of today's Newmarket—Aurora comes from the old Newmarket—Aurora, but it is only 91% of that riding. The rest went elsewhere.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
99.9%Newmarket—Aurora 91% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative gain
Elected
Sandra Cobena
Conservative
31,540
50.6% of valid votes
Margin
2,241
votes · +3.6 pts
Runner-up
Jennifer McLachlan
Liberal
29,299
47.0% of valid votes
Conservative 50.6% · Liberal 47.0% · New Democratic 2.4%
Turnout70.8% of 88,805 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandra Cobena | Conservative | 31,540 | 50.6% | 37.9% | +12.7 |
| Jennifer McLachlan | Liberal | 29,299 | 47.0% | 43.5% | +3.5 |
| Anna Gollen | New Democratic | 1,473 | 2.4% | 11.5% | −9.1 |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
1.8 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
1,473 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 2,241-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
38 of 175
4 polls ended in an exact tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 1,121 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 1.8% of the 62,312 valid votes, 1.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative31,540
Liberal29,299
Still Conservative by 2,241 votes. Actual margin: 2,241.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 54.8% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative53.4%47.2%−6.2
Liberal43.9%50.8%+6.9
New Democratic2.7%1.9%−0.8
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $111,000 — about 1.3 times the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest36th highest of 343
- Median age is 40.8 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest141st lowest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 43.2% — about 1.5 times the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest78th highest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 36.0% — about 2.1 times the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest73rd highest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 77.7% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest86th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.0% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest101st lowest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
loading basemap…
The card
No. 35068ON · 2025
Newmarket—Aurora
Sandra Cobena
- Result
- Conservative gain by 2,241
- Turnout
- 70.8%
- Population
- 117,700
- Area
- 57 km²
Changed hands in 2025Closeness of the raceArea, smallest first
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
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