The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35068Ontario
Newmarket—
Newmarket—
Who represents Newmarket—
Sandra Cobena
Member of Parliament for Newmarket—
Conservative
MP since · first term
- Finance committee
212 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on The Economy.
The 2025 result: Conservative gain from the Liberals
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Newmarket—Aurora, April 28, 2025
The figures
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandra Cobena | Conservative | 31,540 | 50.6% |
| Jennifer McLachlan | Liberal | 29,299 | 47.0% |
| Anna Gollen | New Democratic | 1,473 | 2.4% |
Sandra Cobena (Conservative) won Newmarket—
Of the 62,312 valid votes, Sandra Cobena (Conservative) took 50.6%, Jennifer McLachlan (Liberal) 47.0% and Anna Gollen (New Democratic) 2.4%. Turnout was 70.8% of 88,805 electors: 62,894 ballots cast, 62,312 of them valid, for 3 candidates.
Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 12.7 (37.9% to 50.6%), the Liberals up 3.5 (43.5% to 47.0%) and the New Democrats down 9.1 (11.5% to 2.4%), in points of the valid votes.
2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.
Since 2004: no party has held it
The party first in Newmarket—Aurora at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries
- 2004†Conservative42.5%by 1.5 points over the Liberals
- 2006changed handsLiberal45.9%by 7.6 points over the Conservatives
- 2008changed handsConservative46.9%by 13.0 points over the Liberals
- 2011Conservative54.5%by 30.9 points over the Liberals
- 2015changed handsLiberal45.2%by 2.6 points over the Conservatives
- 2019Liberal43.1%by 5.3 points over the Conservatives
- 2021Liberal43.5%by 5.6 points over the Conservatives
- 2025changed handsConservative50.6%by 3.6 points over the Liberals
The figures
| Year | First | Share | Second | Margin (pts) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004† | Conservative | 42.5% | Liberal | 1.5 | carried, our estimate |
| 2006 | Liberal | 45.9% | Conservative | 7.6 | carried, our estimate |
| 2008 | Conservative | 46.9% | Liberal | 13.0 | carried, our estimate |
| 2011 | Conservative | 54.5% | Liberal | 30.9 | carried, our estimate |
| 2015 | Liberal | 45.2% | Conservative | 2.6 | carried, our estimate |
| 2019 | Liberal | 43.1% | Conservative | 5.3 | carried, our estimate |
| 2021 | Liberal | 43.5% | Conservative | 5.6 | transposed by Elections Canada |
| 2025 | Conservative | 50.6% | Liberal | 3.6 | official result |
The Conservatives were first at four of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Liberals at four; it changed hands four times. In 2025 the Conservatives took 50.6% of the vote here, 7.7 points above their average of 42.9% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.
On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (42.5%), 2008 (46.9%), 2011 (54.5%) and 2025 (50.6%) and the Liberals in 2006 (45.9%), 2015 (45.2%), 2019 (43.1%) and 2021 (43.5%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.
A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2004 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.
- 2021 Liberal · Tony Van Bynen, by 3,035 votes (5.5 pts)
- 2019 Liberal · Tony Van Bynen, by 3,236 votes (5.3 pts)
- 2015 Liberal · Kyle Peterson, by 1,451 votes (2.6 pts)
In the old Newmarket—Aurora on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Newmarket—Aurora lived in; Elections Canada's official results.
What kind of place Newmarket—
- Population
- 117,7002021 census
- Area
- 57km²
- Density
- 2,083people per km²
- Electors
- 88,805on the 2025 lists
- Changed hands in 2025One of 58 of 343 ridings where the winning party changed from the transposed 2021 result (21 of 122 in Ontario)
- Median total household income is $111,000 — about 1.3 times the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest36th highest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 36.0% — about 2.1 times the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest73rd highest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 43.2% — about 1.5 times the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest78th highest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 77.7% — a little higher than the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest86th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.0% — about 63 percent of the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest101st lowest of 343
- Median age is 40.8 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest141st lowest of 343
2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.
IDid this riding change?
Yes — it shrank. All of today's Newmarket—Aurora, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Newmarket—Aurora, but it is only 91% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.
IIThe 2025 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandra Cobena | Conservative | 31,540 | 50.6% | 37.9% | +12.7 |
| Jennifer McLachlan | Liberal | 29,299 | 47.0% | 43.5% | +3.5 |
| Anna Gollen | New Democratic | 1,473 | 2.4% | 11.5% | −9.1 |
IIIHow close was it, really
It would have taken 1,121 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 1.8% of the 62,312 valid votes, 1.8 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 54.8% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
On election day the Liberals took 43.9%, the Conservatives 53.4% and the New Democrats 2.7%; in advance and special ballots, 50.8%, 47.2% and 1.9%, in that order.
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Newmarket—Aurora, April 28, 2025
The figures
| Party | Election day | Advance and special | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 43.9% | 50.8% | +6.9 |
| Conservative | 53.4% | 47.2% | −6.2 |
| New Democratic | 2.7% | 1.9% | −0.8 |