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The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35070Ontario

Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake

Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake is a federal riding in Ontario. Tony Baldinelli (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2019) represents Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake. Tony Baldinelli (Conservative) held Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 2,575 votes (4.2 points), with 49.1% of the vote. Andrea Kaiser (Liberal) was second with 44.9%, on a turnout of 67.1% of 91,058 electors. Member as of .

Niagara South · ConservativeSt. Catharines · LiberalNiagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake
Fig. 1 — Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on . Open it on the board →

Who represents Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake

CTony Baldinelli
Tony Baldinelli's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Tony Baldinelli

Member of Parliament for Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake

Conservative

MP since · 3 terms

  • Science and Research committee
  • Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
  • Vice-Chair, Science and Research committee

61 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Automotive Industry.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake, April 28, 2025Of the 60,595 valid votes, Tony Baldinelli (Conservative) took 49.1%, Andrea Kaiser (Liberal) 44.9% and Shannon Mitchell (New Democratic) 3.9%; the 4 other candidates took 2.1% together.2025Turnout 67.1% of 91,058 electorsTony BaldinelliConservative49.1% · 29,7742,575 votes ahead · 4.2 ptsAndrea KaiserLiberal44.9% · 27,199Shannon MitchellNew Democratic3.9% · 2,335Others (4)2.1% · 1,287050%100%
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake, April 28, 2025Of the 60,595 valid votes, Tony Baldinelli (Conservative) took 49.1%, Andrea Kaiser (Liberal) 44.9% and Shannon Mitchell (New Democratic) 3.9%; the 4 other candidates took 2.1% together.2025Turnout 67.1% of 91,058 electorsTony BaldinelliConservative49.1% · 29,7742,575 votes ahead · 4.2 ptsAndrea KaiserLiberal44.9% · 27,199Shannon MitchellNew Democratic3.9% · 2,335Others (4)2.1% · 1,287050%100%
Shares of the 60,595 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
CandidatePartyVotesShare
Tony BaldinelliConservative29,77449.1%
Andrea KaiserLiberal27,19944.9%
Shannon MitchellNew Democratic2,3353.9%
Others (4)1,2872.1%

Tony Baldinelli (Conservative) won Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake on with 29,774 votes, 49.1% of the 60,595 valid votes. Andrea Kaiser (Liberal) was second with 27,199 (44.9%), 2,575 votes and 4.2 points behind.

Of the 60,595 valid votes, Tony Baldinelli (Conservative) took 49.1%, Andrea Kaiser (Liberal) 44.9% and Shannon Mitchell (New Democratic) 3.9%; the 4 other candidates took 2.1% together. Turnout was 67.1% of 91,058 electors: 61,058 ballots cast, 60,595 of them valid, for 7 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 12.0 (37.1% to 49.1%), the Liberals up 10.0 (34.9% to 44.9%) and the New Democrats down 13.8 (17.7% to 3.9%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: held by the Conservatives

The party first in Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

  1. 2004Conservative38.7%by 2.2 points over the Liberals
  2. 2006Conservative40.4%by 5.8 points over the Liberals
  3. 2008Conservative46.7%by 19.7 points over the Liberals
  4. 2011Conservative53.3%by 29.8 points over the New Democrats
  5. 2015Conservative42.1%by 7.6 points over the Liberals
  6. 2019Conservative35.5%by 3.0 points over the Liberals
  7. 2021Conservative37.1%by 2.2 points over the Liberals
  8. 2025Conservative49.1%by 4.2 points over the Liberals
Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran.
The figures
YearFirstShareSecondMargin (pts)Basis
2004Conservative38.7%Liberal2.2carried, our estimate
2006Conservative40.4%Liberal5.8carried, our estimate
2008Conservative46.7%Liberal19.7carried, our estimate
2011Conservative53.3%New Democratic29.8carried, our estimate
2015Conservative42.1%Liberal7.6carried, our estimate
2019Conservative35.5%Liberal3.0carried, our estimate
2021Conservative37.1%Liberal2.2transposed by Elections Canada
2025Conservative49.1%Liberal4.2official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 9.3 points over the next party, short of the 20 a stronghold needs. In 2025 the Conservatives took 49.1% of the vote here, 7.1 points above their average of 42.0% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (38.7%), 2006 (40.4%), 2008 (46.7%), 2011 (53.3%), 2015 (42.1%), 2019 (35.5%), 2021 (37.1%) and 2025 (49.1%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 23 of the 343 ridings are held without being strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.

Before 2025
  • 2021 Conservative · Tony Baldinelli, by 3,160 votes (4.4 pts)
  • 2019 Conservative · Tony Baldinelli, by 2,061 votes (3.0 pts)
  • 2015 Conservative · Rob Nicholson, by 4,917 votes (7.6 pts)

In Niagara Falls on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake is

Population
113,5002021 census
Area
389km²
Density
292people per km²
Electors
91,058on the 2025 lists
  • Median age is 46.8 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
    highestlowest53rd highest of 343
  • Median total household income is $78,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
    highestlowest125th lowest of 343
  • Share who are immigrants is 23.4% — about 1.4 times the median riding's 17.3%.
    highestlowest135th highest of 343
  • Share of households that own their home is 72.8% — about the same as the median riding's 71.4%.
    highestlowest151st highest of 343
  • Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 26.0% — a little lower than the median riding's 28.2%.
    highestlowest154th lowest of 343
  • Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.6% — about the same as the median riding's 1.6%.
    highestlowest165th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake, its electors as well as its ground, comes from the old Niagara Falls, but it is only 55% of that riding by area. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding
100.0%Niagara Falls 100.0% of the area · 55% of it kept
How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Tony BaldinelliConservative29,77449.1%37.1%+12.0
Andrea KaiserLiberal27,19944.9%34.9%+10.0
Shannon MitchellNew Democratic2,3353.9%17.7%−13.8
4 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
Celia TaylorGreen5180.9%
Dinah AlthorpePeople's4810.8%
Daniel ShakhmundesOther1600.3%
Yawar AnwarOther1280.2%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin
2,335 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 2,575-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
20 of 170
2 polls ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (148) · ■ won by another party (20) · ▨ tied (2).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 1,288 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 2.1% of the 60,595 valid votes, 2.1 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Conservative29,774
Liberal27,199
Still Conservative by 2,575 votes. Actual margin: 2,575.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 54.1% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 39.9%, the Conservatives 53.1%, the New Democrats 4.5% and the Greens 1.0%; in advance and special ballots, 50.8%, 44.5%, 3.1% and 0.7%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake, April 28, 2025

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake, April 28, 2025On election day the Liberals took 39.9%, the Conservatives 53.1%, the New Democrats 4.5% and the Greens 1.0%; in advance and special ballots, 50.8%, 44.5%, 3.1% and 0.7%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapLiberal39.9%50.8%+10.9 ptsConservative53.1%44.5%−8.6 ptsNew Democratic4.5%3.1%−1.4 ptsGreen1.0%0.7%−0.3 pts050%100%
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake, April 28, 2025On election day the Liberals took 39.9%, the Conservatives 53.1%, the New Democrats 4.5% and the Greens 1.0%; in advance and special ballots, 50.8%, 44.5%, 3.1% and 0.7%, in that order.Election dayAdvance and special± pts, the gapLiberal39.9%50.8%+10.9 ptsConservative53.1%44.5%−8.6 ptsNew Democratic4.5%3.1%−1.4 ptsGreen1.0%0.7%−0.3 pts050%100%
Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.
The figures
PartyElection dayAdvance and specialGap
Liberal39.9%50.8%+10.9
Conservative53.1%44.5%−8.6
New Democratic4.5%3.1%−1.4
Green1.0%0.7%−0.3
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake and its 2 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake — federal riding profile and 2025 results." The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/niagara-falls-niagara-on-the-lake/ Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.