The Political Record · Federal electoral districts

Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake

Federal riding · ON · No. 35070 · 2023 representation order
Fig. 1 — Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake, 2023 boundaries.
Member
Tony Baldinelli Conservative
2025 result
Conservative hold by 2,575 votes
Turnout
67.1% of 91,058 electors
Population
113,500 2021 census
Area
389 km²
Figures as of
2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
  • Length of the ballot: 7 candidates stood · 24th of 343 in Canada24th
    Length of the ballot
    7 candidates stood · 24th of 343 in Canada
  • Closeness of the race: Won by 2,575 votes (4.2 pts) · 55th of 343 in Canada55th
    Closeness of the race
    Won by 2,575 votes (4.2 pts) · 55th of 343 in Canada
  • Turnout, lowest first: 67.1% of 91,058 electors voted · 112th of 343 in Canada112th
    Turnout, lowest first
    67.1% of 91,058 electors voted · 112th of 343 in Canada
In brief
  1. Tony Baldinelli held the seat for the Conservatives by 2,575 votes (+4.2 points).
  2. The riding shrank in 2023: it keeps 55% of the old Niagara Falls.
  3. Election-day and advance voters agreed on the winner; 54.1% of votes were cast on the day.
  4. Median age is the 53rd highest of 343 ridings.
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Tony Baldinelli
Conservative · first elected 2019-10-21 · 3 terms
  • Member: Science and Research
  • Member: Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
  • Vice-Chair: Science and Research
58 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Automotive Industry.

IDid this riding change?

Yes — it shrank. All of today's Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake comes from the old Niagara Falls, but it is only 55% of that riding. The rest went elsewhere.

Share of today's areaFormer riding
100.0%Niagara Falls 55% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Conservative hold
Elected
Tony Baldinelli
Conservative
29,774
49.1% of valid votes
Margin
2,575
votes · +4.2 pts
Runner-up
Andrea Kaiser
Liberal
27,199
44.9% of valid votes
Conservative 49.1% · Liberal 44.9% · New Democratic 3.9%
Turnout67.1% of 91,058 electors
CandidatePartyVotes%2021±
Tony BaldinelliConservative29,77449.1%37.1%+12.0
Andrea KaiserLiberal27,19944.9%34.9%+10.0
Shannon MitchellNew Democratic2,3353.9%17.7%−13.8
4 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
Celia TaylorGreen5180.9%
Dinah AlthorpePeople's4810.8%
Daniel ShakhmundesOther1600.3%
Yawar AnwarOther1280.2%
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Swing needed to flip
2.1 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
2,335 votes
New Democratic took fewer than the 2,575-vote margin.
Election-day polls won by others
20 of 170
2 polls ended in an exact tie.
Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (148) · ■ won by another party (20) · ▨ tied (2).
Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 1,288 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 2.1% of the 60,595 valid votes, 2.1 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Conservative29,774
Liberal27,199
Still Conservative by 2,575 votes. Actual margin: 2,575.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 54.1% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative53.1%44.5%−8.6
Liberal39.9%50.8%+10.9
New Democratic4.5%3.1%−1.4
Green1.0%0.7%−0.3
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhat kind of place this is

2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.

VIWhere it is

loading basemap…
Fig. 3 — Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake and its 2 neighbouring ridings.

The card

No. 35070ON · 2025
Niagara Falls—Niagara-on-the-Lake
Tony Baldinelli
Result
Conservative hold by 2,575
Turnout
67.1%
Population
113,500
Area
389 km²
Length of the ballot: 7 candidates stood · 24th of 343 in Canada24thLength of the ballotCloseness of the race: Won by 2,575 votes (4.2 pts) · 55th of 343 in Canada55thCloseness of the raceTurnout, lowest first: 67.1% of 91,058 electors voted · 112th of 343 in Canada112thTurnout, lowest first
One of 343The Political Record

A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.

Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.

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