The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35071Ontario
Niagara South
Niagara-Sud
Niagara South is a federal riding in Ontario. Fred Davies (Conservative) has represented Niagara South since the 2025 election. Fred Davies (Conservative) held Niagara South for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 2,994 votes (3.9 points), with 47.8% of the vote. Vance Badawey (Liberal) was second with 43.9%, on a turnout of 67.7% of 113,955 electors. Member as of .
Who represents Niagara South
Fred Davies
Member of Parliament for Niagara South
Conservative
MP since · first term
- Citizenship and Immigration committee
- Subcommittee on International Human Rights
114 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Citizenship Act.
The 2025 result: Conservative hold
Share of the valid votes by candidate, Niagara South, April 28, 2025
The figures
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davies | Conservative | 36,702 | 47.8% |
| Vance Badawey | Liberal | 33,708 | 43.9% |
| Chantal McCollum | New Democratic | 4,307 | 5.6% |
| Peter Taras | People's Party | 1,147 | 1.5% |
| Others (2) | 899 | 1.2% |
Fred Davies (Conservative) won Niagara South on with 36,702 votes, 47.8% of the 76,763 valid votes. Vance Badawey (Liberal) was second with 33,708 (43.9%), 2,994 votes and 3.9 points behind.
Of the 76,763 valid votes, Fred Davies (Conservative) took 47.8%, Vance Badawey (Liberal) 43.9%, Chantal McCollum (New Democratic) 5.6% and Peter Taras (People's Party) 1.5%; the 2 other candidates took 1.2% together. Turnout was 67.7% of 113,955 electors: 77,179 ballots cast, 76,763 of them valid, for 6 candidates.
Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 14.6 (33.2% to 47.8%), the Liberals up 11.2 (32.7% to 43.9%), the New Democrats down 17.0 (22.6% to 5.6%) and the People's Party down 7.4 (8.9% to 1.5%), in points of the valid votes.
2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.
Since 2004: no party has held it
The party first in Niagara South at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries
- 2004Liberal38.9%by 9.9 points over the Conservatives
- 2006Liberal35.3%by 3.6 points over the Conservatives
- 2008changed handsConservative35.6%by 6.0 points over the New Democrats
- 2011Conservative43.2%by 5.2 points over the New Democrats
- 2015changed handsLiberal35.4%by 2.6 points over the Conservatives
- 2019Liberal34.4%by 2.2 points over the Conservatives
- 2021changed handsConservative33.2%by 0.4 points over the Liberals
- 2025Conservative47.8%by 3.9 points over the Liberals
The figures
| Year | First | Share | Second | Margin (pts) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Liberal | 38.9% | Conservative | 9.9 | carried, our estimate |
| 2006 | Liberal | 35.3% | Conservative | 3.6 | carried, our estimate |
| 2008 | Conservative | 35.6% | New Democratic | 6.0 | carried, our estimate |
| 2011 | Conservative | 43.2% | New Democratic | 5.2 | carried, our estimate |
| 2015 | Liberal | 35.4% | Conservative | 2.6 | carried, our estimate |
| 2019 | Liberal | 34.4% | Conservative | 2.2 | carried, our estimate |
| 2021 | Conservative | 33.2% | Liberal | 0.4 | transposed by Elections Canada |
| 2025 | Conservative | 47.8% | Liberal | 3.9 | official result |
The Liberals were first at four of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, the Conservatives at four; it changed hands three times. In 2025 the Conservatives took 47.8% of the vote here, 13.9 points above their average of 33.9% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.
On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (38.9%), 2006 (35.3%), 2015 (35.4%) and 2019 (34.4%) and the Conservatives in 2008 (35.6%), 2011 (43.2%), 2021 (33.2%) and 2025 (47.8%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.
A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 160 of the 343 ridings have no degree. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result.
- 2021 Liberal · Vance Badawey, by 2,252 votes (3.8 pts)
- 2019 Liberal · Vance Badawey, by 2,305 votes (4.0 pts)
- 2015 Liberal · Vance Badawey, by 2,295 votes (4.2 pts)
In Niagara Centre on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Niagara South lived in; Elections Canada's official results.
What kind of place Niagara South is
- Population
- 132,5002021 census
- Area
- 824km²
- Density
- 161people per km²
- Electors
- 113,955on the 2025 lists
- 3rd-most populous in Canada132,500 people, 2021 census · 3rd of 343
- Median age is 46.0 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest65th highest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 18.3% — about 65 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest74th lowest of 343
- Median total household income is $74,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest85th lowest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 4.2% — about 2.6 times the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest108th highest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 13.5% — about 78 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest149th lowest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 72.4% — about the same as the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest154th highest of 343
2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 75% of the 2025 electors in today's Niagara South lived in the old Niagara Centre; by area, 39% of the riding came from other ridings.
IIThe 2025 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davies | Conservative | 36,702 | 47.8% | 33.2% | +14.6 |
| Vance Badawey | Liberal | 33,708 | 43.9% | 32.7% | +11.2 |
| Chantal McCollum | New Democratic | 4,307 | 5.6% | 22.6% | −17.0 |
| Peter Taras | People's | 1,147 | 1.5% | 8.9% | −7.4 |
2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
| Natashia Bergen | Green | 683 | 0.9% |
| David Vedova | Other | 216 | 0.3% |
IIIHow close was it, really
It would have taken 1,498 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 2.0% of the 76,763 valid votes, 1.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 59.8% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
On election day the Liberals took 40.2%, the Conservatives 50.5%, the New Democrats 6.2%, the People's Party 1.6% and the Greens 1.1%; in advance and special ballots, 49.4%, 43.8%, 4.7%, 1.3% and 0.6%, in that order.
Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Niagara South, April 28, 2025
The figures
| Party | Election day | Advance and special | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 40.2% | 49.4% | +9.2 |
| Conservative | 50.5% | 43.8% | −6.7 |
| New Democratic | 6.2% | 4.7% | −1.5 |
| People's Party | 1.6% | 1.3% | −0.3 |
| Green | 1.1% | 0.6% | −0.5 |