The Political Record · Federal electoral districts
Niagara South
Niagara-Sud
Federal riding · ON · No. 35071 · 2023 representation order
- Member
- Fred Davies Conservative
- 2025 result
- Conservative hold by 2,994 votes
- Turnout
- 67.7% of 113,955 electors
- Population
- 132,500 2021 census
- Area
- 824 km²
- Figures as of
- 2026-09-25
Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings
- Most populous in Canada132,500 people, 2021 census · 3rd of 343
- Closeness of the raceWon by 2,994 votes (3.9 pts) · 59th of 343 in Canada
- Length of the ballot6 candidates stood · 61st of 343 in Canada
In brief
Illustration after: © House of Commons
Member of Parliament
Fred Davies
- Member: Citizenship and Immigration
- Member: Subcommittee on International Human Rights
IDid this riding change?
Yes. 39% of today's Niagara South came from ridings other than the old Niagara Centre.
Share of today's areaFormer riding
60.6%Niagara Centre 97% of it kept
39.4%Niagara Falls 45% of it kept
How this is measured. Share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files. It is area, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.
IIThe 2025 result
Conservative hold
Elected
Fred Davies
Conservative
36,702
47.8% of valid votes
Margin
2,994
votes · +3.9 pts
Runner-up
Vance Badawey
Liberal
33,708
43.9% of valid votes
Conservative 47.8% · Liberal 43.9% · New Democratic 5.6% · People's 1.5%
Turnout67.7% of 113,955 electors
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | 2021 | ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davies | Conservative | 36,702 | 47.8% | 33.2% | +14.6 |
| Vance Badawey | Liberal | 33,708 | 43.9% | 32.7% | +11.2 |
| Chantal McCollum | New Democratic | 4,307 | 5.6% | 22.6% | −17.0 |
| Peter Taras | People's | 1,147 | 1.5% | 8.9% | −7.4 |
2 further candidates, each under 1% of the vote
| Natashia Bergen | Green | 683 | 0.9% |
| David Vedova | Other | 216 | 0.3% |
The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.
IIIHow close was it, really
Swing needed to flip
1.9 pts
Half the margin: the share that would have had to move from first to second.
Third place vs. the margin
4,307 votes
New Democratic took more than the 2,994-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.
Election-day polls won by others
47 of 231
No poll ended in a tie.
Flip the seatHypothetical
It would have taken 1,498 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 2.0% of the 76,763 valid votes, 1.9 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.
Conservative36,702
Liberal33,708
Still Conservative by 2,994 votes. Actual margin: 2,994.
IVElection day versus advance
Only 59.8% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.
Election dayAdvance & specialGap
Conservative50.5%43.8%−6.7
Liberal40.2%49.4%+9.2
New Democratic6.2%4.7%−1.5
People's1.6%1.3%−0.3
Green1.1%0.6%−0.5
An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.
VWhat kind of place this is
- Median total household income is $74,000 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.highestlowest85th lowest of 343
- Median age is 46.0 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.highestlowest65th highest of 343
- Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 18.3% — about 65 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.highestlowest74th lowest of 343
- Share who are immigrants is 13.5% — about 78 percent of the median riding's 17.3%.highestlowest149th lowest of 343
- Share of households that own their home is 72.4% — about the same as the median riding's 71.4%.highestlowest154th highest of 343
- Share with French as a mother tongue is 4.2% — about 2.6 times the median riding's 1.6%.highestlowest108th highest of 343
2021 Census, keyed to the 2023 representation order. Comparisons are against the median riding, not Canada as a whole. Each rule places this riding among all 343.
VIWhere it is
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The card
No. 35071ON · 2025
Niagara South
Fred Davies
- Result
- Conservative hold by 2,994
- Turnout
- 67.7%
- Population
- 132,500
- Area
- 824 km²
Most populous in CanadaCloseness of the raceLength of the ballot
One of 343The Political Record
A card exists for every one of the 343 ridings.
Every figure on it is the figure on this page: the 2025 result and margin, turnout, the 2021 census population, the area, and the distinctions ranked against all 343 ridings. The portrait is an illustration after the official House of Commons photograph.
Open a neighbour to collect the next one.