The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35072Ontario

Niagara West

Niagara-Ouest

Niagara West is a federal riding in Ontario. Dean Allison (Conservative, first elected to the House in 2004) represents Niagara West. Dean Allison (Conservative) held Niagara West for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 5,994 votes (8.5 points), with 51.7% of the vote. Jennifer Korstanje (Liberal) was second with 43.2%, on a turnout of 75.7% of 93,414 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Niagara West on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Niagara West

Dean Allison's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Dean Allison

Member of Parliament for Niagara West

Conservative

MP since 2004-06-28 · 8 terms

Co-Chair, Exercise of Powers Under the Building Canada Act committee
Co-Chair, Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure
Exercise of Powers Under the Building Canada Act committee
Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure

48 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on Business of Supply — Opposition Motion—Food Inflation and Budgetary Policy — Opposition Motion—Canada Carbon Rebate and Payment to Quebec — Main Estimates and Supplementary Estimates (A), 2025-26.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Niagara West, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 70,413 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Dean Allison	Conservative	36,418	51.7%
Jennifer Korstanje	Liberal	30,424	43.2%
Justin Abando	New Democratic	2,262	3.2%
Dave Bylsma	Christian Heritage Party	727	1.0%
Other (1)		582	0.8%

Dean Allison (Conservative) won Niagara West on April 28, 2025 with 36,418 votes, 51.7% of the 70,413 valid votes. Jennifer Korstanje (Liberal) was second with 30,424 (43.2%), 5,994 votes and 8.5 points behind.

Of the 70,413 valid votes, Dean Allison (Conservative) took 51.7%, Jennifer Korstanje (Liberal) 43.2%, Justin Abando (New Democratic) 3.2% and Dave Bylsma (Christian Heritage Party) 1.0%; one other candidate took 0.8%. Turnout was 75.7% of 93,414 electors: 70,761 ballots cast, 70,413 of them valid, for 5 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 7.9 (43.8% to 51.7%), the Liberals up 12.3 (30.9% to 43.2%), the New Democrats down 10.7 (13.9% to 3.2%) and the others down 0.1 (1.1% to 1.0%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: usually Conservative

The party first in Niagara West at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004†Liberal39.2%by 1.5 points over the Conservatives
2006changed handsConservative43.9%by 12.2 points over the Liberals
2008Conservative48.3%by 23.5 points over the Liberals
2011Conservative54.0%by 28.7 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative46.5%by 13.3 points over the Liberals
2019Conservative43.5%by 10.8 points over the Liberals
2021Conservative43.8%by 12.9 points over the Liberals
2025Conservative51.7%by 8.5 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004†	Liberal	39.2%	Conservative	1.5	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	43.9%	Liberal	12.2	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	48.3%	Liberal	23.5	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	54.0%	New Democratic	28.7	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	46.5%	Liberal	13.3	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	43.5%	Liberal	10.8	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	43.8%	Liberal	12.9	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	51.7%	Liberal	8.5	official result

The Conservatives were first here at seven of the eight general elections from 2004 to 2025; the Liberals were first in 2004. In 2025 the Conservatives took 51.7% of the vote here, 6.3 points above their average of 45.4% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Liberals were first here in 2004 (39.2%) and the Conservatives in 2006 (43.9%), 2008 (48.3%), 2011 (54.0%), 2015 (46.5%), 2019 (43.5%), 2021 (43.8%) and 2025 (51.7%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 83 of the 343 ridings are usually one party's. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2004 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Dean Allison, by 8,391 votes (15.2 pts)
2019 Conservative · Dean Allison, by 7,018 votes (13.0 pts)
2015 Conservative · Dean Allison, by 8,151 votes (16.1 pts)

In the old Niagara West on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Niagara West lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Niagara West is

Population: 112,0652021 census
Area: 1,205km²
Density: 93people per km²
Electors: 93,414on the 2025 lists

Share of households that own their home is 83.8% — about 1.2 times the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest27th highest of 343
Median total household income is $101,000 — about 1.2 times the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest61st highest of 343
Median age is 44.8 — a little higher than the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest81st highest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.4% — a little lower than the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest152nd lowest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 15.1% — a little lower than the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest162nd lowest of 343
Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 28.7% — about the same as the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest165th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Yes. 87% of the 2025 electors in today's Niagara West lived in the old Niagara West; by area, 1% of the riding came from other ridings.

Share of today's electorsFormer riding

87.2%Niagara West 99.2% of the area

11.3%Niagara Centre 0.5% of the area · 1% of it kept

1.5%St. Catharines 0.3% of the area · 4% of it kept

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Dean Allison	Conservative	36,418	51.7%	43.8%	+7.9
Jennifer Korstanje	Liberal	30,424	43.2%	30.9%	+12.3
Justin Abando	New Democratic	2,262	3.2%	13.9%	−10.7
Dave Bylsma	Other	727	1.0%	1.1%	−0.1

1 further candidate, under 1% of the vote

Ryan Anderson

People's

582

0.8%

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

2,262 votes

New Democratic took fewer than the 5,994-vote margin.

Election-day polls won by others

32 of 207

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (174) · ■ won by another party (32) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 2,998 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 4.3% of the 70,413 valid votes, 4.3 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 005,996

Conservative36,418

Liberal30,424

Still Conservative by 5,994 votes. Actual margin: 5,994.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 56.5% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Liberals took 37.8%, the Conservatives 56.2%, the New Democrats 3.8%, the others 1.3% and the People's Party 1.0%; in advance and special ballots, 50.2%, 45.9%, 2.5%, 0.7% and 0.6%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Niagara West, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Liberal	37.8%	50.2%	+12.4
Conservative	56.2%	45.9%	−10.3
New Democratic	3.8%	2.5%	−1.3
Other	1.3%	0.7%	−0.6
People's Party	1.0%	0.6%	−0.4

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

loading basemap…

Fig. 3 — Niagara West and its 5 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Niagara West — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/niagara-west/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.