The Political RecordFederal electoral districtsNo. 35078Ontario

Oshawa

Name: 2025 Canadian federal election in Oshawa
Start: 2025-04-28
End: 2025-04-28

Oshawa is a federal riding in Ontario. Rhonda Kirkland (Conservative) has represented Oshawa since the 2025 election. Rhonda Kirkland (Conservative) held Oshawa for the Conservatives in the 2025 election by 3,478 votes (5.2 points), with 48.2% of the vote. Isaac Ransom (Liberal) was second with 43.0%, on a turnout of 64.1% of 104,837 electors. Member as of 2026-11-01.

Fig. 1 — Oshawa on the board, 2023 boundaries; the ridings next door as the House holds them on 2026-11-01. Open it on the board →

Who represents Oshawa

Rhonda Kirkland's piece from the board. Illustration after the official portrait © House of Commons.

Rhonda Kirkland

Member of Parliament for Oshawa

Conservative

MP since 2025-04-28 · first term

Public Safety and National Security committee

255 speeches in the 45th Parliament, most often on The Economy.

Contact and office · House of Commons →

The 2025 result: Conservative hold

Share of the valid votes by candidate, Oshawa, April 28, 2025

Shares of the 66,700 valid votes; a candidate under 1% is counted with the others. Source: Elections Canada, official voting results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Candidate	Party	Votes	Share
Rhonda Kirkland	Conservative	32,131	48.2%
Isaac Ransom	Liberal	28,653	43.0%
Sara Labelle	New Democratic	5,112	7.7%
Katherine Mathewson	Green	804	1.2%

Rhonda Kirkland (Conservative) won Oshawa on April 28, 2025 with 32,131 votes, 48.2% of the 66,700 valid votes. Isaac Ransom (Liberal) was second with 28,653 (43.0%), 3,478 votes and 5.2 points behind.

Of the 66,700 valid votes, Rhonda Kirkland (Conservative) took 48.2%, Isaac Ransom (Liberal) 43.0%, Sara Labelle (New Democratic) 7.7% and Katherine Mathewson (Green) 1.2%. Turnout was 64.1% of 104,837 electors: 67,222 ballots cast, 66,700 of them valid, for 4 candidates.

Since 2021

Against the 2021 result on these boundaries, the Conservatives are up 8.8 (39.4% to 48.2%), the Liberals up 20.0 (23.0% to 43.0%), the New Democrats down 20.6 (28.3% to 7.7%) and the Greens down 0.3 (1.5% to 1.2%), in points of the valid votes.

2021 is Elections Canada's transposition of that election onto the 2023 boundaries, not an election held on these lines.

Since 2004: held by the Conservatives

The party first in Oshawa at each general election, 2004 to 2025, on today's boundaries

2004†Conservative33.7%by 0.7 points over the Liberals
2006Conservative39.5%by 9.6 points over the New Democrats
2008Conservative43.1%by 11.9 points over the New Democrats
2011Conservative52.6%by 17.4 points over the New Democrats
2015Conservative38.2%by 6.3 points over the New Democrats
2019Conservative38.9%by 10.4 points over the New Democrats
2021Conservative39.4%by 11.1 points over the New Democrats
2025Conservative48.2%by 5.2 points over the Liberals

Each election carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate to 2019, Elections Canada's transposition for 2021, the official result for 2025. Parties are counted as they ran. † The first two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

The figures

Year	First	Share	Second	Margin (pts)	Basis
2004†	Conservative	33.7%	Liberal	0.7	carried, our estimate
2006	Conservative	39.5%	New Democratic	9.6	carried, our estimate
2008	Conservative	43.1%	New Democratic	11.9	carried, our estimate
2011	Conservative	52.6%	New Democratic	17.4	carried, our estimate
2015	Conservative	38.2%	New Democratic	6.3	carried, our estimate
2019	Conservative	38.9%	New Democratic	10.4	carried, our estimate
2021	Conservative	39.4%	New Democratic	11.1	transposed by Elections Canada
2025	Conservative	48.2%	Liberal	5.2	official result

The Conservatives were first here at all eight general elections from 2004 to 2025, by an average of 9.1 points over the next party, short of the 20 a stronghold needs. In 2025 the Conservatives took 48.2% of the vote here, 7.4 points above their average of 40.8% at the seven general elections from 2004 to 2021.

On today's boundaries the Conservatives were first here in 2004 (33.7%), 2006 (39.5%), 2008 (43.1%), 2011 (52.6%), 2015 (38.2%), 2019 (38.9%), 2021 (39.4%) and 2025 (48.2%), each with the share of the valid votes shown.

A stronghold is a party first at every general election since 2004, by an average of 20 points or more over the next party; held, first at every one; usually, first at all but one. By-elections are not counted. By this rule 23 of the 343 ridings are held without being strongholds. The results before 2021 are carried onto today's boundaries by where the riding's 2025 electors lived: our estimate, from the older boundaries of Taylor, Lucas, Kirby and Hewitt and the results in Sevi's "Who Runs?". 2021 is Elections Canada's transposition, and 2025 the official result. In 2004 the carried top two are within two points, so which party was first is less certain.

Before 2025

2021 Conservative · Colin Carrie, by 6,330 votes (11.2 pts)
2019 Conservative · Colin Carrie, by 6,419 votes (10.4 pts)
2015 Conservative · Colin Carrie, by 3,823 votes (6.3 pts)

In the old Oshawa on the 2013 boundaries, the riding most of the 2025 electors in today's Oshawa lived in; Elections Canada's official results.

What kind of place Oshawa is

Population: 131,0702021 census
Area: 85km²
Density: 1,535people per km²
Electors: 104,837on the 2025 lists

Distinctions · ranked against all 343 ridings

5th-most populous in Canada
131,070 people, 2021 census · 5th of 343
Boundaries unchanged in 2023
Covers the same ground as its predecessor, and the same electors · one of 54 of 343 by area and electors

Share aged 25-64 with a bachelor's degree or higher is 19.4% — about 69 percent of the median riding's 28.2%.
highestlowest86th lowest of 343
Share of households that own their home is 61.1% — a little lower than the median riding's 71.4%.
highestlowest90th lowest of 343
Median total household income is $79,500 — a little lower than the median riding's $84,000.
highestlowest141st lowest of 343
Share with French as a mother tongue is 1.7% — a little higher than the median riding's 1.6%.
highestlowest158th highest of 343
Median age is 41.6 — about the same as the median riding's 41.6.
highestlowest163rd highest of 343
Share who are immigrants is 18.5% — a little higher than the median riding's 17.3%.
highestlowest168th highest of 343

2021 Census on the 2023 boundaries; each rule places this riding among all 343. Density is the census population over the riding's area.

IDid this riding change?

Essentially no. Today's Oshawa covers almost exactly the same ground as the Oshawa riding it replaced, and 100% of its 2025 electors lived in it.

How this is measured. Electors: the share of the current riding's 2025 ordinary-list electors who lived in each former riding, each 2025 polling division placed in the 2013 riding a point inside it falls in. Area: the share of the current riding's area that came from each former riding, by intersecting the 2013 and 2023 boundary files, and how much of the former riding that part was. Area is land, not population. Elections Canada counts 48 of 343 ridings as entirely unchanged.

IIThe 2025 result

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	2021	±
Rhonda Kirkland	Conservative	32,131	48.2%	39.4%	+8.8
Isaac Ransom	Liberal	28,653	43.0%	23.0%	+20.0
Sara Labelle	New Democratic	5,112	7.7%	28.3%	−20.6
Katherine Mathewson	Green	804	1.2%	1.5%	−0.3

The 2021 column is Elections Canada's official transposition of the 2021 result onto these 2023 boundaries. ± is the change in each party's share. It is not "swing": with four or more competitive parties there is no single pair to swing between.

IIIHow close was it, really

Third place vs. the margin

5,112 votes

New Democratic took more than the 3,478-vote margin. True in 100 of 343 ridings in 2025.

Election-day polls won by others

30 of 168

1 poll ended in an exact tie.

Fig. 2 — Each square is one election-day poll: ■ won by the Conservatives (137) · ■ won by another party (30) · ▨ tied (1).

Flip the seatHypothetical

It would have taken 1,740 voters switching from Conservative to Liberal — 2.6% of the 66,700 valid votes, 2.6 points — to change the result. No ballot was cast this way; this only moves votes between the top two.

Voters who switch: 003,480

Conservative32,131

Liberal28,653

Still Conservative by 3,478 votes. Actual margin: 3,478.

IVElection day versus advance

Only 58.4% of this riding's votes were cast at election-day polls. The rest were advance or special ballots.

On election day the Conservatives took 49.7%, the Liberals 40.7%, the New Democrats 8.2% and the Greens 1.4%; in advance and special ballots, 46.1%, 46.1%, 6.9% and 1.0%, in that order.

Share of the valid votes by party, election-day polls against advance and special ballots, Oshawa, April 28, 2025

Shares of the valid votes cast at election-day polls, and of those cast at advance polls, at mobile polls and by special ballot; the gap is the second less the first, in points. Source: Elections Canada, poll-by-poll results, the 2025 general election.

The figures

Party	Election day	Advance and special	Gap
Conservative	49.7%	46.1%	−3.6
Liberal	40.7%	46.1%	+5.4
New Democratic	8.2%	6.9%	−1.3
Green	1.4%	1.0%	−0.4

An association, not a cause. Voters who cast ballots before election day differed from those who turned out on the day. It does not say why. There is no poll-level turnout figure on this page: the elector count on a polling division includes people who voted in advance and were counted elsewhere.

VWhere it is

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Fig. 3 — Oshawa and its 2 neighbouring ridings.

Sources and citation

"Oshawa — federal riding profile and 2025 results."
The Political Record. https://politicalrecord.ca/riding/oshawa/
Accessed 2026-11-10.

Results and transposition: Elections Canada. Boundaries: Elections Canada / Statistics Canada, Open Government Licence – Canada. Census: Statistics Canada 2021 Census. Member: House of Commons.

Figures reconcile to the certified national total of 19,641,663 votes. The member is as the House of Commons listed them on 2026-11-01. Page built 2026-11-10.